19 October 1999
Text: U.S. Team Issues Assessment of Russian Food Needs
(USDA, USAID, DOS team reports food, feed shortfalls) (1,560)
On October 18, a team of commodity specialists and other experts from
several U.S. government agencies issued an assessment of food and feed
needs in the Russian Federation for the coming year.
The report is available on the website of the U.S. Foreign
Agricultural Service:
www.fas.usda.gov/excredits/pl480/Russia/assessment.html
The U.S. team spent about two weeks in Russia in September to gather
data on the supply, demand, and use of critical agricultural
commodities in each region of the Federation. They analyzed prospects
for upcoming harvests, the overall status of Russia's agri-food
sector, transportation and storage issues, and the food needs of
specific vulnerable groups in the population.
The team found that Russia could face a shortfall of 2-3.5 million
tons of food grains, 5.5-6 million tons of feed grains, 500,000 tons
of protein meals, and 250,000 tons of meat in the coming year, based
on imports of two million tons from neighboring Former Soviet Union
(FSU) countries and 250,000 tons from non-FSU sources. "Without
additional imports," it said, "these projected shortfalls could mean
food shortages in certain regions, and feed shortages that could lead
to distress slaughter of animal herds."
The team noted in its report that the value of the ruble has been
relatively stable, and that Russia's ability to import "has improved."
Following is the text of the report:
(begin text)
U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service
Washington, D.C.
RUSSIA FOOD NEEDS ASSESSMENT TEAM
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
OCTOBER 18, 1999
A technical-level U.S. government team spent around two weeks in
Russia in September 1999 assessing the food and feed situation. The
interagency team included several USDA commodity specialists and
representatives from USAID and the U.S. Department of State. The team
reviewed and analyzed the supply, demand, and use of critical
commodities by region, prospects for upcoming harvests, the overall
status of the Russian agri-food sector, geographic issues of
transportation and storage, and food needs and availabilities for
specific vulnerable groups in the population.
Scope of Assessment: The assessment team's mandate was to determine to
what extent available food supplies (from production, stocks, and
imports) are likely to meet anticipated needs in the coming year. The
team also examined the likely needs of the most vulnerable segments of
the Russian population.
Overall Context: Last year, the worst Russian grain harvest in over 40
years coincided with the effects of a severe financial crisis. Another
poor harvest this year means that overall food and feed availability
is expected to tighten without substantial imports. While obstacles to
commercial imports remain, in contrast to last year, Russia's ability
to import has improved.
General Findings: Russia could face a shortfall of 2-3.5 million tons
of food grains, 5.5-6 million tons of feed grains, 500,000 tons of
protein meals, and 250,000 tons of meat in the coming year. These
numbers are based on the assumption that imports from neighboring FSU
(former Soviet Union) countries do not exceed 2 million tons, and that
commercial imports from non-FSU sources do not exceed 250,000 tons.
Without additional imports, these projected shortfalls could mean food
shortages in certain regions, and feed shortages that could lead to
distress slaughter of animal herds. With regard to the most vulnerable
segments of the population, the team estimates an overall shortfall of
approximately 500,000 tons of food supplies for the coming year.
Food Grains (Wheat and Rye): In spite of a slightly larger grain crop,
the food grain supply situation could be severely constrained because
of the extremely low carryover stocks from last year. While production
of wheat, Russia's main grain crop, is estimated at 31 million tons,
up from 27 million tons in 1998, wheat quality is hit hard by this
year's unfavorable weather, with an estimated 55 percent of the crop
suitable for milling purposes compared to nearly 75 percent last year.
Milling wheat production is expected to be only 17 million tons
compared with nearly 20 million last year.
The team estimates that Russia will commercially import 2 million tons
from neighboring countries, up from 700,000 tons last year, and may
import 250,000 or more tons of wheat from non-FSU sources. Assuming
these import estimates are accurate, the total amount of wheat and
other food grains available for consumption in the coming year would
be 25.5 million tons. At the same time, Russia's minimum human
consumption needs (wheat and rye) are estimated at 22 million tons,
seed needs at 4 million tons, and minimum stock levels at 2 million
tons. This adds up to a total food-grain need of 28 million tons -
resulting in a shortfall of 2.5 million tons, without additional
imports.
Feed Grains (Feed Wheat, Corn, and Barley): Total Russian feed grain
supplies (production, stocks, and imports) will amount to an estimated
39.5 million tons in the 1999/2000 marketing year. Production is
estimated at 36 million tons, including 14 million tons of
feed-quality wheat, and 22 million tons of coarse grains.
That level is 10 million tons above last year's low level of 26
million tons. However, higher production is almost completely offset
by sharply lower stocks, which have fallen to 1.5 million tons from
nearly 10 million tons a year ago after the bumper 1997 crop.
Feed grain imports are estimated at 1.5-2 million tons, up from 1.3
million tons last year. This includes commercial imports estimated at
1-1.5 million tons, and aid deliveries under FY1999 programs by the
U.S. and EU delivered during crop year 1999/2000, estimated to be
about 500,000 tons.
Russia's feed use demand is estimated at 33 million tons, seed needs
at 8 million tons, industrial use demand at 2 million tons, and a
minimal level of stocks at 2 million tons, adding up to a total feed
grain needs estimate of 45 million tons - resulting in a shortfall of
5.5 million tons, without additional imports.
Protein Meal: During 1999, total supply of oilseed meal is forecast at
1.5 million tons (a seven-year high), of which domestic sunflower seed
meal production will represent about 1 million tons. Soybean meal
production is estimated to be over 240,000 tons and will be
supplemented by 200,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal due to arrive under
the 1999 Title I program in the fall. Smaller amounts of rapeseed,
fish, and bone meal are also available.
Based on current levels of meat production, the team estimates a total
protein meal demand of 2 million tons and a resulting soybean meal
deficit of about 500,000 tons in the coming year. To improve the
feed-to-meat ratio, sufficient supplies of soybean meal are needed to
encourage better rations and to allow poultry producers to expand
flocks.
Meat: Meat consumption, at half the level of a decade ago, could fall
further since supplies are 250,000 tons short of last year's already
depressed levels. The team estimated a total supply of 5.25 million
tons, including 3.8 million tons of domestic production. The relative
stability of the ruble may allow for enough imports to make up for the
FY 1999 food aid supplies from the U.S. and the EU [European Union].
However, domestic production is estimated to decline by 250,000 tons,
resulting in a year-over-year decline in overall supplies by that
amount. In order to maintain the already low protein consumption level
of 1998/99, Russia will need to supplement its meat supplies by an
estimated 250,000 tons or experience further reduction in protein
consumption.
Other Crops: Production of potato (down 5 percent) and fruit (down 30
percent), which can be a critical supplement during years of tight
food supplies, is stagnant or declining, further underscoring the
potential for food shortages in the coming year. This could impose
extreme hardship on many Russians whose food consumption has already
reached critically low levels.
Vulnerable Groups: Those Russians with incomes below 50 percent of the
poverty level (25 million persons) are likely to require assistance
for the foreseeable future. At least 450,000-500,000 tons of food
assistance is needed annually to meet the needs of 8.33 million of the
poorest among this group. While the FY 1999 food aid program and the
targeted PVO (private voluntary organization) distribution has had a
significant and visible positive impact on the food supplies of this
segment of the population, low levels of Russia's domestic crop
coupled with lack of available funds at the federal and the oblast
levels suggest the need for continued outside assistance over the next
year and perhaps over the next few years.
Russia Food and Feed Need Estimates
U.S. Interagency Agricultural Assessment Mission to Russia September
6-22, 1999
Food Feed Oilmeals Meats
Grains Grains
Million metric tons
Supply 25.5 39.5 1.5 5.25 Production 20.5 36.0 1.3 3.80
Imports 3.5 2.0 0.2 1.45 Beginning stocks 1.5 1.5 -
Demand 28.0 45.0 a/2.0 aa/5.50
Food use 22.0 - - 5.50
Feed use - 33.0 2.0 -
Seed use 4.0 8.0 - - Industrial use - 2.0 - -
Ending stocks 2.0 2.0 - -
Deficit 2.5 5.5 0.5 0.25
a/Assumes improved feeding rations.
aa/Assumes no reduction in consumption from 1999. Note: Food grains
include milling wheat and rye, and smaller amounts of barley, oats,
millet, and buckwheat. Feed grains include feed-quality wheat, barley,
rye, oats, corn, and some lesser grains.
(end text)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State)
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