DATE=5/20/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43453
TITLE= YELTSIN / HEALTH
BYLINE= ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: QUESTIONS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN RAISED ABOUT THE HEALTH OF
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN FOLLOWING HIS RECENT CANCELLATION
OF A MOSCOW MEETING WITH THE SPANISH PRIME MINISTER. IN THIS
REPORT FROM WASHINGTON, FORMER MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE
NESNERA LOOKS AT THE LATEST HEALTH SCARE AND ASKS WHETHER
PRESIDENT YELTSIN'S POWER IS WANING ON THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL
SCENE.
TEXT: FOR THE PAST YEAR, PRESIDENT YELTSIN HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY
IN THE BACKGROUND, ALLOWING HIS PRIME MINISTER TO RUN THE DAY TO
DAY AFFAIRS OF STATE. HIS APPEARANCES ON TELEVISION HAVE BEEN
CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED AND HAVE BEEN REMINISCENT OF SOVIET TIMES.
DURING RECENT ADDRESSES TO THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE, HIS SPEECH WAS
SLURRED AND HIS FACE APPEARED APPEARED PUFFY. AND IN THE PAST
FEW WEEKS, HIS AIDES HAVE BEEN FORCED TO EXPLAIN SOME OF MR.
YELTSIN'S APPARENTLY INCOHERENT RAMBLINGS DURING PUBLIC
APPEARANCES.
THE LATEST EXAMPLES OF MR. YELTSIN'S APPARENT PHYSICAL FRAILTY,
COMBINED WITH THE CANCELLATION OF THE MEETING WITH THE SPANISH
PRIME MINISTER (JOSE MARIA AZNAR), HAVE ONCE AGAIN BROUGHT TO THE
FOREFRONT QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS HEALTH -- AND HIS ABILITY TO GOVERN
EFFECTIVELY. SPANISH OFFICIALS SAID MR. YELTSIN IS SUFFERING
FROM BRONCHITIS WHILE KREMLIN OFFICIALS SAID HIS HEALTH IS FINE.
BRUCE JOHNSON -- SENIOR RUSSIA ANALYST WITH THE
(INDIANAPOLIS-BASED) "HUDSON INSTITUTE" -- BELIEVES MR. YELTSIN'S
HEALTH IS FAR WORSE THAN WHAT KREMLIN OFFICIALS WANT THE PUBLIC
TO BELIEVE.
// JOHNSON ACT //
PEOPLE THAT I KNOW WHO ARE CLOSE TO HIM SAY THAT HE
EXHIBITS MOMENTS WHERE HE JUST LOSES COMPLETE GRASP OF
LOCAL REALITY. HE FORGETS WHERE HE IS AND HE EVEN
FORGETS THE TOPIC HE WAS DISCUSSING WITH SOME OF HIS
AIDES -- WHICH IS VERY FRIGHTENING.
// END ACT //
MR. JOHNSON SAYS PRESIDENT YELTSIN IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS OF A
DOMINANT FORCE ON THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCENE -- AND MORE AND
MORE A BIT PLAYER.
BUT OTHER ANALYSTS SAY WHILE HIS HEALTH HAS UNDOUBTEDLY
DETERIORATED, MR. YELSTIN STILL WIELDS CONSIDERABLE POWER. THEY
SAY OVER THE YEARS, MR. YELTSIN HAS HAD A SERIES OF HEALTH
PROBLEMS, MOST OF THEM ASSOCIATED WITH HIS HEART. AND HE HAS
BOUNCED BACK SEVERAL TIMES, INCLUDING DURING THE 1996
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.
MIKE MCFAUL -- FROM THE (WASHINGTON-BASED) "CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT"
RESEARCH CENTER -- SAYS MR. YELTSIN SHOULD NOT BE WRITTEN OFF.
// MCFAUL ACT //
HE HAS BEEN WEAKENED SEVERELY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
YEARS, FIRST AND FOREMOST AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
LAST AUGUST. HOWEVER HE IS STILL A MAJOR PLAYER. HE
STILL CAN PLAY PERSONNEL GAMES AND SHUFFLING OF THE
CHAIRS -- AND SO HE STILL IS A FORCE TO BE RECKONED WITH
IN RUSSIA TODAY.
// END ACT //
THE LATEST PERSONNEL GAMES INVOLVED THE FIRING OF POPULAR PRIME
MINISTER YEVGENI PRIMAKOV AND THE NAMING OF FORMER INTERIOR
MINISTER SERGEI STEPASHIN TO TAKE HIS PLACE. MANY ANALYSTS SAY
THE FACT THAT PARLIAMENT'S LOWER HOUSE -- THE DUMA -- APPROVED
MR. STEPASHIN'S NOMINATION SHOWS MR. YELTSIN'S POLITICAL
INSTINCTS ARE STILL SHARP AND INDICATES LEGISLATORS ARE STILL
NOT WILLING TO TAKE MR. YELTSIN HEAD-ON.
EXPERTS SAY ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF MR. YELTSIN'S CONTINUED POLITICAL
STRENGTH WAS THE DUMA'S INABILITY TO GET THE NECESSARY VOTES TO
BEGIN IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST HIM.
PAULA DOBRIANSKY -- FROM THE (NEW YORK BASED) "COUNCIL ON FOREIGN
RELATIONS" -- DOES NOT BELIEVE MR. YELTSIN IS A SPENT POLITICAL
FORCE.
// DOBRIANSKY ACT //
I DO NOT THINK THAT YELTSIN'S POLITICAL POWER IS
WANING. IT APPEARS THAT WHENEVER HE IS CHALLENGED LIKE
HE WAS MOST RECENTLY, HE HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL AT
DEFENDING HIMSELF, AT ORCHESTRATING ENOUGH OF A COMEBACK
TO THWART ANY KIND OF POLITICAL OPPOSITION THAT MAY BE
THROWN UP AGAINST HIM. AND HE ACTUALLY DEMONSTRATES TIME
AND AGAIN THAT HE DOES TRULY HAVE ALMOST NINE POLITICAL
LIVES.
// END ACT //
MR. YELTSIN'S TERM AS PRESIDENT EXPIRES IN JUNE OF NEXT YEAR --
AND ACCORDING TO THE CONSTITUTION HE HELPED DRAFT, HE CANNOT RUN
FOR A THIRD TERM.
BUT OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, REPORTS HAVE SURFACED IN THE RUSSIAN
MEDIA ASKING WHAT ARE MR. YELTSIN'S REAL INTENTIONS REGARDING
NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS? SOME REPORTS HAVE INDICATED
HE MAY POSTPONE THEM OR EVEN VIOLATE PROVISIONS OF THE
CONSTITUTION TO STAY IN OFFICE.
MIKE MCFAUL FROM THE "CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT" IS WORRIED ABOUT THOSE
POSSIBILITIES.
// SECOND MCFAUL ACT //
IN MY CONVERSATIONS WITH DIFFERENT PEOPLE CLOSE TO MR.
YELTSIN, THEY STILL TALK ABOUT THESE AS LAST-DITCH
EFFORTS. AND FRANKLY, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN RUSSIA
TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT BORIS YELTSIN WILL FREELY GIVE
UP POWER AT THE END OF HIS TERM. I PERSONALLY THINK HE
WILL. I AM HOPEFUL THAT HE WILL. (OPT) BUT I THINK
EVERYBODY WHO HAS AN INTEREST IN STABILITY AND DEMOCRACY
IN RUSSIA SHOULD DO ALL THAT THEY CAN TO SIGNAL THAT
THAT IS REALLY THE MOST IMPORTANT DECISION AND THAT
THERE IS NO HIGHER GOAL OR HIGHER OBJECTIVE OVER
DEMOCRACY. (END OPT)
// END ACT //
MIKE MCFAUL FROM THE "CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT" SAYS MR. YELTSIN USED
EXTRA-CONSTITUTIONAL POWERS BEFORE: IN 1993, WHEN HE ORDERED THE
BOMBING OF PARLIAMENT TO CRUSH A REVOLT BY HARD-LINE LEGISLATORS.
MR. MCFAUL SAYS HE WAS SUCCESSFUL THEN. BUT HE SAYS TIMES HAVE
CHANGED AND TODAY, MR. YELTSIN WILL FAIL IF HE ATTEMPTS IN ANY
WAY TO VIOLATE THE RUSSIAN CONSTITUTION. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/KL
20-May-99 12:22 PM EDT (1622 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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