DATE=5/18/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43431
TITLE=RUSSIA / DUMA VOTES
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN FACES ANOTHER CHALLENGE
FROM PARLIAMENT'S LOWER HOUSE -- THE DUMA -- WHEN IT VOTES
WEDNESDAY ON HIS NOMINEE FOR PRIME MINISTER -- SERGEI STEPASHIN.
ON SATURDAY, THE DUMA FAILED TO BEGIN IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS
AGAINST THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT. IN THIS REPORT FROM WASHINGTON,
FORMER MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA LOOKS AT THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS ON THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCENE.
TEXT: THE 450-MEMBERS OF RUSSIA'S DUMA FAILED SATURDAY TO GET
THE NECESSARY VOTES TO LAUNCH IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN.
THE RUSSIAN LEADER WAS CHARGED WITH FIVE COUNTS RANGING FROM
INSTIGATING THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION IN 1991 TO LAUNCHING
THE 1994 WAR AGAINST THE SEPARATIST REGION OF CHECHNYA. NONE OF
THE FIVE COUNTS RECEIVED THE NECESSARY TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY AS
OUTLINED IN THE RUSSIAN CONSTITUTION.
MANY WESTERN ANALYSTS SAY SATURDAY'S VOTE IN THE DUMA WAS A
SIGNIFICANT SETBACK FOR THE COMMUNIST PARTY WHICH SPEARHEADED THE
IMPEACHMENT DRIVE. EXPERTS SAY THE DUMA ACTION IS A CLEAR
VICTORY FOR PRESIDENT YELTSIN WHO JUST HOURS BEFORE THE VOTE
ANGERED MANY DEPUTIES BY FIRING PRIME MINISTER YEVGENI PRIMAKOV.
MIKE MCFAUL IS A RUSSIA EXPERT WITH THE (WASHINGTON-BASED)
"CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT" RESEARCH CENTER. HE SAYS THE VOTE IN THE
DUMA REPRESENTS MORE THAN A TACTICAL TRIUMPH FOR PRESIDENT
YELTSIN: IT IS A CLEAR VICTORY FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS AND THE
RULE OF LAW.
// MCFAUL ACT //
RATHER THAN RESORTING TO TANKS, RATHER THAN RESORTING TO
DEMONSTRATIONS AND COUPS AND REVOLUTIONS, THEY (DUMA
DEPUTIES) RESOLVED THIS CONFLICT THROUGH A SET OF RULES
THAT WERE OUTLINED IN THE CONSTITUTION. AND THE MORE
TIMES THEY GO THROUGH THAT AND GO THROUGH THIS PROCESS,
THE MORE ROBUST THOSE RULES WILL BECOME. THEY WILL JUST
BECOME THE NORMS AND THE WAY ONE DOES BUSINESS. WHEREAS
THE OLD WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS WILL BECOME HARDER AND
HARDER TO EVEN THINK ABOUT -- LET ALONE ACHIEVE VICTORY
THROUGH.
// END ACT //
DUMA DEPUTIES ARE NOW FACED WITH ANOTHER VOTE: WHETHER OR NOT
TO ACCEPT PRESIDENT YELTSIN'S NOMINEE FOR PRIME MINISTER, FORMER
INTERIOR MINISTER SERGEI STEPASHIN.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MR. STEPASHIN HAS BEEN MEETING
LEGISLATORS AND PARTY LEADERS TO SEEK SUPPORT. HE ALSO ADDRESSED
THE UPPER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT -- THE FEDERATION COUNCIL -- WHERE
HE PROMISED TO FIGHT CORRUPTION.
MANY ANALYSTS HERE EXPECT MR. STEPASHIN TO BE APPROVED BY THE
DUMA DESPITE INITIAL RESERVATIONS. THEY SAY HIS STRONG LAW AND
ORDER BACKGROUND HAS SWAYED MANY LEGISLATORS TO VOTE IN FAVOR OF
HIS NOMINATION.
BRUCE JOHNSON -- SENIOR RUSSIA ANALYST WITH THE
(INDIANAPOLIS-BASED) "HUDSON INSTITUTE" -- SAYS ANOTHER SIGN
POINTING TO MR. STEPASHIN'S APPROVAL IS THE SUPPORT GIVEN HIM BY
MANY REGIONAL LEADERS IN THE FEDERATION COUNCIL.
// JOHNSON ACT //
TO WIN THE FEDERATION COUNCIL -- THE HIGHEST CHAMBERS'
STAUNCH APPROVAL, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT PART OF THE
OFFICIAL VOTING PROCESS -- THIS OFTEN IS THE FLAG
(SIGNAL) THAT GUIDES THE DUMA THROUGH ITS APPROVALS
PROCESS. AND I THINK YOU ARE GOING TO FIND THERE ARE A
LOT OF PEOPLE STILL IN THE DUMA WHO HONESTLY WANT TO SEE
CORRUPTION BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL.
// END ACT //
WHILE ANALYSTS HERE BELIEVE MR. STEPASHIN WILL GET THE DUMA'S
APPROVAL TO BECOME RUSSIA'S NEW PRIME MINISTER, SOME EXPERTS
QUESTION WHETHER HE WILL BE ABLE TO PUT TOGETHER A GOVERNMENT
CAPABLE OF TACKLING RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.
ONE OF THOSE EXPERTS IS PAULA DOBRIANSKY FROM THE (NEW-YORK
BASED) "COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS."
// DOBRIANSKY ACT //
STEPASHIN IS NOT KNOWN FOR BEING AN ECONOMIST OR FOR
BEING AN ECONOMIC REFORMER. SO FIRST FROM THAT
STANDPOINT, ONE HAS TO QUESTION AS TO WHAT HE WILL BE
ABLE TO BRING TO THE TABLE (WHAT CREDENTIALS HE HAS).
SECONDLY, I THINK IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN: WHAT ARE (HIS)
SKILLS IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE VARIOUS PARTIES TO THE
TABLE AND BEING ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY BROKER OR ADDRESS
THE (ECONOMIC) PLAN THAT IS ALREADY UNDER CONSIDERATION
OR FOR THAT MATTER POTENTIALLY AN AMENDED PLAN WHICH
WOULD RECEIVE THE SUPPORT OF ALL PARTIES CONCERNED.
// END ACT //
MANY EXPERTS SEE MR. STEPASHIN AS BEING A TRANSITIONAL FIGURE.
THEY SAY HIS GOVERNMENT WILL BE FACED WITH AN ANTI-REFORM,
UNCOOPERATIVE DUMA WHICH WILL ONLY BE THINKING ABOUT THE DECEMBER
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. GIVEN THAT FACT, ANALYSTS DO NOT
FORESEE ANY MAJOR ECONOMIC REFORMS IN RUSSIA IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.
(SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/KL
18-May-99 1:54 PM EDT (1754 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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