DATE=5/14/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43411
TITLE= YELTSIN / PRIMAKOV
BYLINE= ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: RUSSIAN LEGISLATORS CONTINUE TO DISCUSS CHARGES AGAINST
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIS IMPEACHMENT. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COUNTRY IS WITHOUT A LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT,
FOLLOWING THE FIRING OF PRIME MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV. IN THIS
REPORT FROM WASHINGTON, FORMER MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE
NESNERA LOOKS AT THE LATEST POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN RUSSIA.
TEXT: THE 450 MEMBERS OF RUSSIA'S LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT --
OR STATE DUMA -- ARE DISCUSSING FIVE CHARGES AGAINST PRESIDENT
BORIS YELTSIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIS IMPEACHMENT. THESE CHARGES
RANGE FROM INSTIGATING THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION IN 1991
TO IMPROPERLY USING FORCE AGAINST HARD-LINE LAWMAKERS TWO YEARS
LATER.
EXPERTS SAY ONLY ONE CHARGE COULD GET THE 300 VOTES NECESSARY TO
CONTINUE TO THE NEXT STAGE OF THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESS. THAT ONE
ACCUSES MR. YELTSIN OF LAUNCHING THE 1994 WAR AGAINST THE
SEPARATIST REGION OF CHECHNYA.
BUT ANALYSTS SAY IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PRESIDENT YELTSIN WILL BE
IMPEACHED, GIVEN HOW CONVOLUTED THE WHOLE PROCESS IS. WHILE THE
DUMA INITIATES THE PROCEEDING, IMPEACHMENT OF THE PRESIDENT HAS
TO BE APPROVED BY THREE OTHER BODIES: THE CONSTITUTIONAL AND
SUPREME COURTS AS WELL AS THE PARLIAMENT'S UPPER HOUSE, THE
FEDERATION COUNCIL.
BRUCE JOHNSON, SENIOR RUSSIA ANALYST WITH THE
(INDIANAPOLIS-BASED) "HUDSON INSTITUTE" RESEARCH CENTER, SAYS
THE CHANCES OF MR. YELTSIN BEING IMPEACHED ARE SLIM TO NONE.
// JOHNSON ACT //
ON A SCALE OF ONE TO TEN IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY: NO
MORE THAN A "ONE" OF GETTING THROUGH THE FEDERATION
COUNCIL AND LESS THAN "ONE" OF GETTING THROUGH BOTH
LEVELS OF THE COURTS.
// END ACT //
BUT ANALYSTS CONTEND PRESIDENT YELTSIN HAS MUDDIED THE POLITICAL
WATERS BY FIRING PRIME MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV AND HIS
GOVERNMENT JUST HOURS BEFORE THE DUMA BEGAN ITS IMPEACHMENT
HEARINGS.
THE OFFICIAL REASON GIVEN FOR MR. PRIMAKOV'S DISMISSAL WAS HIS
GOVERNMENT'S POOR HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY.
BUT MIKE MCFAUL -- RUSSIA EXPERT AT THE (WASHINGTON-BASED)
"CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT" RESEARCH CENTER -- SAYS THERE ARE OTHER
REASONS.
// MCFAUL ACT //
I THINK IT IS A HIGHLY IRRATIONAL DECISION THAT IS
DRIVEN FROM PASSION AND NOT INTEREST. IN FACT I DO
NOT THINK IT SERVES YELTSIN'S OWN POLITICAL INTERESTS.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH REFORMING THE ECONOMY -- AS IT
HAS BEEN TOUTED OUT OF MOSCOW -- AND EVERYTHING TO DO
WITH HIS PERSONAL ANIMOSITY TOWARDS MR. PRIMAKOV.
// END ACT //
MR. MCFAUL SAYS THROUGHOUT HIS CAREER, PRESIDENT YELTSIN HAS
RESENTED POWERFUL RIVALS. GIVEN MR. PRIMAKOV'S HIGH STANDING IN
PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS, THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT DECIDED TO DO AWAY
WITH A POTENTIALLY STRONG POLITICAL ADVERSARY. BUT INSTEAD OF
STRENGTHENING HIS POLITICAL HAND, MR. MCFAUL BELIEVES MR. YELTSIN
MAY HAVE ACTUALLY WEAKENED HIS POSITION, IN THAT MR. PRIMAKOV'S
SACKING COULD GALVANIZE SOME WAVERING MEMBERS OF THE DUMA TO VOTE
IN FAVOR OF THE CHECHNYA IMPEACHMENT CHARGE.
AND NOW IT APPEARS MR. YELTSIN WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER BATTLE
TRYING TO GET APPROVAL FOR SERGEI STEPASHIN -- THE RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT'S FOURTH CHOICE AS PRIME MINISTER IN LESS THAN A YEAR.
MR. MCFAUL BELIEVES THE DUMA WILL REJECT MR. STEPASHIN'S
NOMINATION, THUS CAUSING A POLITICAL CRISIS IN RUSSIA.
// MCFAUL ACT //
SO MY GUESS IS THAT YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A KIND OF
STALEMATE WHEREBY THE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDING WILL BEGIN
AFTER A VOTE MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY. AND THAT WILL GO
ALONG FOR A COUPLE OF MONTHS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
GOVERNMENT WILL BE VOTED DOWN THREE TIMES AND WILL BE
ILLEGITIMATE. BUT MR. YELTSIN -- ACCORDING TO THE
CONSTITUTION -- CAN NOT DISSOLVE THE DUMA WHILE
IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS ARE UNDERWAY. AND SO YOU ARE
GOING TO HAVE THIS KIND OF STALEMATE WHERE REALLY, IN
FACT, BOTH THE DUMA AND THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT BE
LEGITIMATE.
// END ACT //
MIKE MCFAUL FROM THE "CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT" SAYS THIS POLITICAL
STALEMATE COULD LAST FOR MONTHS. BUT MANY ANALYSTS WARN THAT
GIVEN RUSSIA'S CONTINUING ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, LAWMAKERS DO NOT
HAVE THE LUXURY OF EITHER PROCEEDING WITH IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS OR
ENGAGING IN POLITICAL STRONG-ARM TACTICS WITH PRESIDENT YELTSIN.
(SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/JO
14-May-99 1:45 PM EDT (1745 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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