DATE=5/13/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43392
TITLE= RUSSIA IMPEACHMENT
BYLINE= ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: RUSSIA'S LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT -- THE DUMA -- HAS
BEGUN IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS AGAINST PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN. BUT
AS FORMER MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM
WASHINGTON, WESTERN EXPERTS BELIEVE THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE MR. YELTSIN WILL BE FORCED OUT OF OFFICE BECAUSE OF
RUSSIA'S CUMBERSOME IMPEACHMENT PROCESS.
TEXT: RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN IS CHARGED WITH FIVE
COUNTS RANGING FROM INSTIGATING THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION
IN 1991 TO IMPROPERLY USING FORCE AGAINST HARD-LINE LAWMAKERS
TWO-YEARS LATER.
TWO-THIRDS OF THE 450 MEMBERS OF THE LOWER HOUSE MUST VOTE IN
FAVOR OF AT LEAST ONE COUNT FOR THE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS TO
CONTINUE. BUT BECAUSE OF THE CUMBERSOME ASPECT OF THE WHOLE
PROCESS, MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE PRESIDENT YELTSIN WILL NOT BE
IMPEACHED.
MANY EXPERTS SAY THE ONLY CHARGE WHICH HAS ANY CHANCE OF GETTING
THE TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY IS THE ONE ACCUSING MR. YELTSIN OF
LAUNCHING THE 1994 WAR AGAINST THE SEPARATIST REGION OF CHECHNYA.
"HUDSON INSTITUTE" (RESEARCH CENTER) SENIOR RUSSIA ANALYST BRUCE
JOHNSON AGREES.
// JOHNSON ACT //
THE ONLY COUNT THAT I THINK WILL HAVE ANY STICKING POWER
IS THE CHECHNYA COUNT, BECAUSE THAT STRIKES RIGHT AT THE
HEART AND SOUL OF A WIDE RANGE OF RUSSIANS IN TERMS OF
SENTIMENT. BUT REMEMBER, THAT UNDER THE CURRENT
CONSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE, HE CAN NOT BE IMPEACHED
UNLESS HE GETS THE SAME LEVEL OF VOTES IN THE DUMA AND
THEN IN THE FEDERATION COUNCIL, WHICH IS THE HIGHER
HOUSE: WHERE I THINK IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN HE WILL NOT
RECEIVE AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE. THEN IT HAS TO GO BOTH TO
THE SUPREME COURT AND THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT. SO THERE
ARE FOUR LEVELS OF THIS IMPEACHMENT. I THINK IT IS A
TEMPEST IN A TEAPOT THAT IS NOT GOING TO GO ANYWHERE.
// END ACT //
THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESS HAS BEEN SPEARHEADED BY THE COMMUNIST
PARTY, WHICH HAS THE LARGEST GROUP OF REPRESENTATIVES IN THE
STATE DUMA. AS RUSSIA EXPERT MIKE MCFAUL -- OF THE "CARNEGIE
ENDOWMENT" (RESEARCH CENTER) SAYS: THE COMMUNISTS HATE MR.
YELTSIN WITH A PASSION AND HAVE ALWAYS WANTED HIM OUSTED FROM THE
KREMLIN.
MR. MCFAUL ALSO AGREES THE CHECHNYA ACCUSATION IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT MAY GET THE NECESSARY 300 VOTES TO PASS. THAT IS BECAUSE
THE LIBERAL "YABLOKO" BLOC -- LED BY GRIGORY YAVLINSKY - SUPPORTS
THE MEASURE.
// MCFAUL ACT //
YOU HAVE TO RECALL THAT MR. YAVLINSKY IN "YABLOKO" WAS
VERY, VERY CRITICAL OF PRESIDENT YELTSIN AND HIS CONDUCT
DURING THE WAR IN CHECHNYA. AND SO NOT TO VOTE FOR
THE IMPEACHMENT VOTE MIGHT ALIENATE SOME OF THEIR
VOTERS.
// END ACT //
MR. MCFAUL BELIEVES PRESIDENT YELTSIN'S FIRING OF PRIME MINISTER
YEVGENY PRIMAKOV HAS GALVANIZED SOME WAVERING MEMBERS OF THE DUMA
TO VOTE IN FAVOR OF THE CHECHNYA CHARGE.
// SECOND MCFAUL ACT //
EVEN BEFORE THIS VOTE, THEY WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 300
THAT IS NECESSARY IN ORDER TO BEGIN THE LONG IMPEACHMENT
PROCESS. OF COURSE THE DUMA PROCESS IS ONLY THE FIRST
STEP OF FOUR. BUT NOW I THINK IT WILL BE SURPRISING IF
THAT VOTE WOULD NOT GO THROUGH, BECAUSE THEY SEE THIS
AS A DIRECT ASSAULT ON THE PRIME MINISTER THAT THEY HAD
HELPED TO APPROVE BACK LAST FALL -- AND THE FOLKS IN THE
MIDDLE HAVE NOW MOVED IN OPPOSITION TO YELTSIN.
// END ACT //
MIKE MCFAUL FROM THE "CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT" RESEARCH CENTER
BELIEVES ACTING PRIME MINISTER SERGEI STEPASHIN IS ONLY A
TRANSITIONAL FIGURE. A STRONG YELTSIN SUPPORTER, HE HAS NO
EXPERIENCE IN THE HIGHER ECHELONS OF POWER. AND MR. MCFAUL SAYS
MR. STEPASHIN STILL HAS TO BE APPROVED BY THE DUMA -- WHICH IS BY
NO MEANS A CERTAINTY. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/RAE
13-May-99 2:21 PM EDT (1821 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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