DATE=5/13/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-249343
TITLE=RUSSIA ECONOMY (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=BARRY WOOD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WHILE THE WORLD BANK SAYS THAT THE CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT
IN MOSCOW WILL DELAY ITS LENDING TO RUSSIA, MANY EXPERTS SAY THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THE FIRING OF YEVGENY PRIMAKOV AS PRIME MINISTER
WILL BE POLITICAL AND NOT ECONOMIC. V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD REPORTS.
TEXT: EXPERTS THURSDAY WERE SCRAMBLING IN AN EFFORT TO FORECAST
THE LIKELY COURSE OF ECONOMIC REFORM IN RUSSIA. DIMITRI SIMES,
THE HEAD OF THE NIXON (RESEARCH) CENTER (IN WASHINGTON) SAYS
PRIME MINISTER DESIGNATE SERGEI STEPASHIN APPEARS TO BE AMONG THE
LEAST QUALIFIED TO REVIVE THE ECONOMY OR INSPIRE PUBLIC
CONFIDENCE.
WRITING IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, MR. SIMES SAYS THE 47 YEAR
OLD INTERIOR MINISTER HAS NOT SHOWN ANY PAST INCLINATION TO
EMBRACE A MARKET ECONOMY. MR. SIMES SEES POLITICAL DEADLOCK AHEAD
WITH PARLIAMENT INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO ENACT THE TAX MEASURES
BEING INSISTED UPON BY THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AS A
PRECONDITION FOR RESUMED LENDING.
ANDERS ASLUND, A RESEARCHER AT THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT AND A LONG
TIME OBSERVER OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY, VIEWS THE OUSTER OF MR.
PRIMAKOV BY PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN AS IRRESPONSIBLE. MR. ASLUND
SAYS THE MOVE WILL BACKFIRE ON THE RUSSIAN LEADER AND LIKELY LEAD
TO THE DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT AND EARLY ELECTIONS, PERHAPS AS
SOON AS SEPTEMBER.
//FIRST ASLUND ACT//
THE SACKING OF PRIMAKOV NATURALLY LEADS TO THE SACKING
OF THE PARLIAMENT. THE POSITIVE ELEMENT THAT BECOMES
CLEARER NOW IS THAT A NUMBER OF REFORMERS WILL COME INTO
THE GOVERNMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT THEIR POLITICAL MANDATE
WILL BE WEAK AND THAT THEIR TIME BEFORE EARLY ELECTIONS
WILL BE SHORT, I DOUBT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THEM TO
ACCOMPLISH MUCH.
//END ACT//
MR. ASLUND SAYS THE I-M-F IS LIKELY TO MOVE AHEAD WITH ITS
LENDING TO RUSSIA, EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DELAY. HE SAYS
THE RUSSIANS HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE
BUDGET DEFICIT AND HOLDING DOWN INFLATION.
//SECOND ASLUND ACT//
I DON'T THINK ECONOMIC POLICY WILL CHANGE MUCH, EITHER
FOR THE BETTER OR FOR THE WORSE. THE WORRISOME FEATURE
WILL SIMPLY BE POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
//END ACT//
OTHER ECONOMISTS ARE EQUALLY PESSIMISTIC. DAVID FOLKERTS-LANDAU
OF DEUTSCHE BANK IN LONDON SAYS A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS IS
LIKELY. AND THAT NEW MONEY FROM THE I-M-F IS UNLIKELY TO BE
DISBURSED UNTIL AT LEAST MID-JULY. (SIGNED)
NEB/BDW/PT
13-May-99 4:47 PM EDT (2047 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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