DATE=1/23/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42424
TITLE=RUSSIA/ALBRIGHT
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
// EDITORS: ALBRIGHT ARRIVAL SKEDDED FOR 1 A.M. LOCAL TIME
MONDAY, WHICH IS 22 HRS. UTC SUNDAY NIGHT. //
INTRO: SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT ARRIVES IN MOSCOW
MONDAY FOR TWO DAYS OF TALKS WITH SENIOR RUSSIAN OFFICIALS.
V-O-A MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN REPORTS THAT WHAT HAD
BEEN PLANNED AS A TRIUMPHAL VISIT TO CELEBRATE PROGRESS ON ARMS
CONTROL HAS INSTEAD BECOME AN EXERCISE IN DAMAGE CONTROL.
TEXT: WHEN SECRETARY OF STATE ALBRIGHT'S MOSCOW VISIT WAS
SCHEDULED LAST MONTH, THERE WERE HIGH HOPES RUSSIA'S PARLIAMENT
WOULD RATIFY THE LONG-DELAYED "START-TWO" NUCLEAR ARMS TREATY BY
YEAR'S END. WORK WAS TO HAVE BEGUN ON A NEW, FAR-REACHING
"START-THREE" ACCORD.
BUT AS MS. ALBRIGHT FLIES TO THE RUSSIAN CAPITAL, THOSE HEADY
DAYS OF EARLY DECEMBER SEEM LIKE A DISTANT DREAM. THEY WERE
CRUSHED FIRST BY THE U-S AIRSTRIKES ON IRAQ ... THEN BY
DISAGREEMENTS OVER ISSUES SUCH AS KOSOVO, ALLEGED RUSSIAN
ASSISTANCE TO IRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, AND FINALLY BY THE
U-S REQUEST FOR CHANGES IN THE 1972 ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE
(A-B-M) TREATY.
WHEN HE MET WITH REPORTERS FRIDAY, RUSSIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER --
IGOR IVANOV -- TRIED TO SOUND POSITIVE ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP.
BUT HIS WORDS BETRAYED A SENSE OF URGENCY ABOUT WHAT MANY HERE
SEE AS A STEADY DETERIORATION IN BILATERAL TIES.
///IVANOV ACT IN RUSSIAN, THEN FADE TO...///
MR. IVANOV SAID: "IT'S IMPORTANT THAT THE DIALOGUE SHOULD
CONTINUE, AND THAT THESE DIFFERENCES DON'T ESCALATE INTO FRONTAL
CONFRONTATION." HE ADDED, "WE WILL NOT ALLOW IT. WE WILL TRY
TO PRESERVE OUR STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP."
MANY RUSSIAN ANALYSTS, HOWEVER, SAY SUCH A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP
IS DEAD, IF INDEED IT EVER EXISTED AT ALL. DMITRY TRENIN OF THE
MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTER SAYS THE FORMER COLD WAR ADVERSARIES HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO FORGE A RELATIONSHIP WITH WHICH THEY CAN BE
COMFORTABLE.
///TRENIN ACT///
TALK OF A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WAS SIMPLY HOLLOW TALK.
A LOT OF TIME WAS WASTED. ANY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THEM
IN THE FUTURE WILL HAVE TO BE AN ASYMMETRICAL
RELATIONSHIP.
///END ACT///
MR. TRENIN IS AMONG THE MANY RUSSIAN ANALYSTS AND COMMENTATORS
WHO SAY THE WASHINGTON-MOSCOW RELATIONSHIP IS AT ITS LOWEST POINT
SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION.
///2ND TRENIN ACT///
WE'RE AT A LOWER POINT THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE AUGUST
1991. HOPEFULLY, IT'S NOT AN ABYSS. IT'S A KIND OF
VALLEY. WE'VE BEEN SLIDING LOWER AND LOWER.
///END ACT///
MR. TRENIN SAYS THERE IS A GROWING PERCEPTION AMONG RUSSIAN
POLITICIANS THAT THE UNITED STATES NO LONGER CARES ABOUT
RUSSIAN CONCERNS. HE SAYS THESE DAYS IT IS NOT JUST COMMUNISTS
AND RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS WHO SHOUT ANTI-AMERICAN SLOGANS.
///3RD TRENIN ACT///
RATHER, IT WAS THE MIDDLE GROUND OF RUSSIAN POLITICS
GETTING A POWERFUL DOSE OF ANTI-AMERICANISM. SO THIS
ELEMENT OF ANTI-AMERICANISM IS WELL PLANTED NOW. IT'S
HERE TO STAY.
///END ACT///
FOREIGN MINISTER IVANOV SAYS PRESIDENT CLINTON'S REQUEST TO
OVERHAUL THE A-B-M TREATY (IN ORDER TO BUILD A MISSILE DEFENSE
SYSTEM IN THE UNITED STATES) IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING TO RUSSIA AT
THIS TIME OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTY.
///IVANOV ACT IN RUSSIAN, THEN FADE TO...///
HE SAID, "WE DON'T CONCEAL THAT WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME
ACTIONS BY CONGRESS AND THE PENTAGON THAT COULD LEAD TO
UNDERMINING THE A-B-M TREATY."
DEFENSE ANALYSTS HERE SEE THE REQUEST TO RENEGOTIATE THE 1972
ACCORD AS A SIGN THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS GIVEN UP ON THE
START-TWO TREATY. THE CARNEGIE CENTER'S DMITRY TRENIN SAYS THE
POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING THE A-B-M TREATY RAISES RUSSIAN FEARS THE
ENTIRE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR REDUCTION PROCESS MIGHT COLLAPSE.
///3RD TRENIN ACT///
IT WILL BE SEEN IN RUSSIA AS THE DESIRE OF THE UNITED
STATES TO WITHDRAW FROM THE A-B-M TREATY, WHICH (IF A
U-S MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM WERE BUILT) WOULD MAKE THE
RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DETERRENT IMPOTENT.
///END ACT///
SECRETARY OF STATE ALBRIGHT HAS SAID SECURITY ISSUES WOULD BE AT
THE TOP OF HER AGENDA IN MOSCOW. BUT NOT THE ISSUES SHE
ORIGINALLY HOPED. INSTEAD OF LOOKING AHEAD TO A NEW STAGE OF
ARMS CONTROL, SHE WILL BE LOOKING BACK -- TRYING TO PERSUADE
NERVOUS RUSSIAN OFFICIALS THE UNITED STATES IS NOT TRYING TO
UNDERMINE THE PROGRESS MADE ON DISARMAMENT OVER THE PAST QUARTER
OF A CENTURY. (SIGNED)
NEB/PFH/DW/RRM
23-Jan-99 12:46 PM EST (1746 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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