Negotiations may help Russia rebuild prestige
Weakened nation may be more of a threat, experts say
09 June 1999 By Deb Price / Detroit News Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON -- Russia's key peacemaking role that helped lead to the apparent end of the two-month conflict over Kosovo gives a much-needed boost to the ailing former superpower's prestige.
Yet, as it basks in the glory of being viewed as a major power that can still make things happen, Russia faces a critical test:
Will it seize this moment to resuscitate U.S.-Russian arms-control measures and reinvent itself as a global leader intent on protecting the world from a future nuclear arms disaster?
Or will it revert to its old paranoid self, refusing to move ahead on arms reduction and security efforts out of deep resentment over NATO expansion and the 10-week bombing campaign against Yugoslavia?
"It's a very scary thing," says arms control expert Tom Collina of the Union of Concerned Scientists. "We have to remember that Russia is the only nation with the capability to annihilate the United States with its nuclear forces."
Collina and other arms-control advocates worry that strained U.S.-Russian relations over the Yugoslavian conflict threaten efforts at a time of growing concern about the safety of the former Soviet Union's deteriorating nuclear weapons complex.
"By removing Kosovo, you only have removed the first layer of difficulties in U.S.-Russian relations," Collina says. "Now dialogue can begin again on arms control. But if we are trying to break the logjam on arms reduction, it requires effort on both sides."
44,000 Hiroshimas
Nearly a decade ago, the Cold War's end ushered in a promising new era for the onetime foes whose nuclear deterence strategies were aptly known by the acronym MAD, for mutual assured destruction.
"Our nuclear forces continue to be postured as though we are enemies, as though we are really worried about a sneak nuclear attack from the other side," says John Pike, a defense analyst at the Federation of American Scientists. "That bears no resemblance to the real world that everyone is living in."
In a matter of minutes, each side could launch 2,000 long-range ballistic missiles at the other -- the equivalent of about 44,000 Hiroshimas -- which would arrive in less than half an hour.
"The danger we face now is no longer from Russia's strength but from its weakness," says Jesse James, head of the Committee on Nuclear Policy, a prominent group of nuclear weapons experts.
Of great concern are
* Tattered warning systems: Experts believe that up to two-thirds of Russia's early-warning radar and satellite systems don't work, creating "blind spots." That leads to concerns that the Russians could mistakenly believe the United States had launched an attack and reply in kind.
* Economic chaos: Mind-boggling revelations include utility managers shutting off power to nuclear weapons facilities over unpaid bills and guards leaving their posts to hunt for food and warm clothes.
* Terrorists, rogue nations: Russia has dismantled thousands of nuclear weapons, leaving tons of uranium and plutonium in poorly secured situations. Last September, U.S. experts visited an unguarded facility with enough uranium for several bombs. Also, displaced Russian nuclear scientists are feared easy prey for rogue nations offering big bucks for their knowledge.
U.S. dominance grows
Meanwhile, the United States is not only far stronger militarily than Russia but is moving rapidly toward developing a missile defense system.
The proposal alarms Russians because it theoretically would mean the United States could attack without fearing reprisal.
"We already have created a huge problem by attacking (Yugoslav President) Milosevic and Yugoslavia," says Rep. Vernon J. Ehlers, R-Grand Rapids. "If we add to it the fact that we are going ahead in building an anti-ballistic missile system, it is even more complicated."
Efforts to reduce risks posed by the Cold War nuclear buildup were set back by events in Yugoslavia. They include ratification by Russia of the Start II long-range weapons treaty, as well as moves by both countries to stop the spread of weapons and cooperate on early warning systems to reduce the risk of an accidental launch.
Bold action urged
The Committee on Nuclear Policy recently urged the United States to bypass the slow treaty process. Instead, its "Jump-Start" report urged the two former foes to work together to cut long-range nuclear weapons to 1,000 each, remove nuclear forces from quick launch status and better secure and greatly reduce weapons-grade ingredients and warhead stockpiles in Russia.
Russia is in "a weakened situation," says Norman Graham, director of Michigan State University's Center for European and Russian Studies. "I am not expecting (an accidental launch), but the danger is there and we need to face it."
Growing concerns
Russia's domestic woes and anger over the Yugoslavian conflict add to U.S. concerns about the former super-
power's deteriorating nuclear arms system.
Major fears include:
* Accidental launch due to aged equipment.
* Mistaken report of U.S. attack because of outmoded detection system.
* Theft of weapons-making nuclear materials due to lax security.
* Rogue leaders buying know-how from displaced Russian nuclear scientists.
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