Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

EUROPE

RUSSIA: "Successful Debut"

Natalia Timakova of reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily commented on the Russian premier's visit to Austria for an EU summit (10/28): "Yevgeny Primakov's debut, as a substitute for the president, can be called successful. If Yeltsin's aides manage--as they say they intend to do--to talk him into giving up all foreign trips, the West, most likely, will not only take it well but may not notice the change at all."

"Unique Chance To Complete Reform"

Otto Latsis, commenting on the government's new anti-crisis program, said in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (10/28): "It could have been called a reactionary utopia if it had not smacked of the burgeoning omnipotence of oligarchs who, merged with the government, have brought us a crisis, rather than the promised market freedom.... Luck has given the Primakov cabinet a unique chance: It can complete the reforms, which have proved too much even for reformers themselves, and lay the foundation of a prosperous market economy in Russia. But to do that, it must focus on that which is the direct opposite of what it is considering now."

"Plan Puts State Above Law"

Andrei Bagrov and Konstantin Levin commented in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (10/27) on the new anti-crisis program: "Assuming that, contrary to tradition, the plan will be implemented, Russia will follow the road South Korea once trod, straight to disaster. Besides, this is the kind of economic model which puts the state above the law. Russia knows more about that than Korea."

"Victory For Military Industrial Complex"

Marina Volkova said in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (10/27): "The government was to produce an economic plan. Instead, it has decided to militarize the industry. The fact that Vice Premier Gennadiy Maslyukov was in charge...and 'leading economic scientists' were his advisors is enough to cause distress in many."

"It's Better If We Rely On Ourselves"

Pyotr Karapetian said in centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda (10/24): "Dreaming about Western aid has made us look like a patient whose protracted illness has tired all those who have undertaken to help him out but, seeing his reluctance to recover, started to find their commitments too bothersome.... We have yet to see the IMF rescue a single country, fill its stores with cheap quality goods, and make its people proud and work hard. We have enough power and skills to help ourselves. With will, we can get out of the mess we are in today."

"Wrong Principles"

Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta stated (10/23): "The banking reform proposed by the Central Bank is based on the classical principles whereby the interests of a state prevail over those of an individual. As long as these principles dominate in Russia's politics, its economy...will remain doomed to upheavals and crises."

"Good-Intention Government"

Otto Latsis held in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (10/22): "To adopt and implement a deficit-free budget, it takes a strong government capable of firmly collecting taxes and restricting

expenditures. A government which has promised to put an end to unrestrained liberalism and increase its role is exactly the right type. So far, however, we have seen a government of good intentions, one which wouldn't say no to anybody."

"About-Face"

In reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (10/22), Vadim Bardin called the just-passed law on combatting money laundering "a legal about-face. It is as straightforward as its author, communist radical Viktor Ilyukhin [chairman of the Duma's security committee]. It will bring Russia back to the times of fighting 'ill-gained incomes' and of total police control in the economy."

"Back To Command Economy?"

Konstantin Levin, commenting on Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov's address to the 9th congress of Russia's union of industrialists and entrepreneurs yesterday, noted on page one of reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (10/21): "Speaking to stormy applause, the Premier stated, 'The theory that the market will solve everything by itself is wrong.' Liberal policy seems to be giving place to a command one."

"Primakov Favors Stronger Government Control"

Otto Latsis in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (10/21): "It looks as if the Premier, contrary to the liberal slogan 'cut down on government control,' holds that government control has been cut too much. But that is a matter not so much of quantity as quality. It is not about how many government decrees (there are reams of them) a producer must fulfill. It is about what share of the public product is distributed through the state budget. In Russia, that share is too large. Even worse, the government's expenditures have consistently been over and above its revenue targets. That is a ruinous policy, undoing all efforts to support production."

"Ritual Visit"

Andrei Kolesnikov said in reformist Izvestiya (10/21): "The current IMF mission to Moscow is probably the most pointless on record.... It is more like a political ritual or a protocol event. Both Moscow and the IMF know only too well that there will be no credits for Russia, particularly after the IMF urged the EU to help Russia with chicken and pork--not a very elegant way to go back on the commitments already made. The cabinet's readiness to welcome that which is virtually a humiliating call by the IMF director attests, more than anything else, to the Russian economy not being competitive."

"Amorphous Power"

Vyacheslav Nikonov argued in reformist Izvestiya (10/20): "A president who may spend months without appearing in his office cannot be called authoritarian. In the last few years he had only come to the Kremlin to meet with his aides or to appoint and sack government officials. Supreme power has never been so amorphous, not even in Brezhnev's last years. It is hard to see how the President can augment his influence now--whatever he does is seen by the political elite and population through the prism of his health."

"Government: Small-Step Tactics"

Semyon Novoprudsky judged on page one of reformist Izvestiya (10/16): "Under the circumstances, doing without an economic master plan is justified. All speculation about the advantages of monetarism over Keynesianism and of government control over a free market is

abstract and highbrow.

"The small-step tactics picked by the Primakov cabinet seem like a good way to get the Russian economy back to where reform may begin."

"Primakov Prolongs Agony"

Liliya Shevtsova remarked in reformist weekly Obshchaya Gazeta (10/15): "Contrary to some predictions, Primakov not only does not facilitate the arrival of a transition period, but prolongs the agony of the Yeltsin rule."

"Leave Him Alone"

Reformist Izvestiya published a page-one commentary by Albert Plutnik (10/14) : "The last few days have provided fresh irrefutable evidence that speculation about the president's poor health is not a fake or rumor spread by his detractors. It is a fact. The trouble with Yeltsin is not that he is still in office but that he may quit before his time. Healthy or sick, Yeltsin is the last guarantor of stability in this country today."

"Russians Are In Danger Of Being Robbed Again"

Tatiana Koshkareva and Rustam Narzikulov wrote in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (10/2): "One may of course expect a new economic program to appear that would ensure economic recovery without restoration of the Soviet-style economy. But it is already clear that Russia has no choice and no way of preventing a slide into the past. No matter how hard the government, the CPRF and Luzhkov try to disguise restoration plans, their terminology constantly betrays them.... Clearly, whatever shape restoration plans will take, they will mark another attempt to rob the Russian people in a big way and with Bolshevik-style directness. And the robbery will be haloed by the slogan: 'Everything for the sake of man, everything for the good of the people.'"

"Hemmed In"

Dmitry Orlov observed in reformist weekly Novoye Vremya (9/27): "The present cabinet will have a very narrow band to operate in. A new round of cooperation with international financial institutions, and, consequently, external debt; or a new vortex of inflation that will suck in investments and savings: This is not a dilemma for the faint of heart. It looks as if the government is leaning toward the second option."

"Everything To Work For"

Dmitry Volkov and Maxim Filimonov wrote in reformist Vremya-MN (9/25): "So far only one thing is clear: Russia's monetary authorities are anxious to avert an 'uncontrollable printing of money.' They do not know how to do it because corresponding instruments are lacking. But while a choice is being made between more and less radical ways of injecting money in the economy, the situation is changing so rapidly that the most radical of plans will turn out to be hopelessly conservative within a week."

"Crisis To Affect Russia's Foreign Policy"

Vyacheslav Tetekin pointed out in neo-communist daily Pravda (9/18): "The deep economic and political crisis in Russia is bound to seriously affect its foreign policy. The crisis attests to the failure of the liberal market-economic concept imposed on Russia by the United States and U.S.-controlled financial institutions. The 'liberal' experiment will evidently result in Russia-West tension growing, not through Russia's fault."

"Primakov's Three Trump Cards"

Yevgeny Anisimov mused in reformist, youth-oriented daily Komsomolskaya Pravda (9/18): "Primakov has at least three trump cards in his hands: a communist revanche, the emergence of a score of nuclear 'Upper Voltas' in what is now Russia, and Moscow's re-orientation from the West to the Arab East. In the past any of those would be enough to scare (the West) into giving financial aid. To be sure, Primakov, with his global outlook and a talent to bargain with the West, will use all three. Which means that there will be no default on foreign debt payments, and Russia will avoid bankruptcy and hunger."

BRITAIN: "Primakov Eclipses 'Exhausted' Yeltsin"

The centrist Independent reported from Moscow (10/28): "More than half way through his disastrous second term, an infirm Boris Yeltsin was back in a sanatorium last night while his prime minister--and possible successor--basked in the limelight of a European summit in Austria. Ill and remote, Mr. Yeltsin withdrew entirely from the Russian political arena yesterday by moving from his residence outside Moscow to a nearby sanatorium.... The Kremlin has done its best to portray the president as a workaholic being forced to rest by his doctors.... Much of the political and financial elite are hoping Mr. Yeltsin can hang on until his term ends in 2000. They do not want an early election as they have yet to find a candidate whom they trust to preserve the status quo."

"Primakov Flies To EU Summit As Yeltsin Heads For Sanatorium"

The liberal Guardian noted (10/28): "Power in Moscow was almost visibly transferred yesterday when Prime Minister Primakov stood in for the ailing President Yeltsin at a European summit in Vienna. Lip-service was paid to the protocol of Mr. Yeltsin's titular rule as Mr. Primakov called on the 'resting' president before flying to Vienna."

"End Game For Yeltsin"

The independent Financial Times intoned (10/23): "Russia has a moribund president and a bankrupt government. It now faces the prospect of renewed hyperinflation and yet further economic decline. The threatened combination of a collapsing state with thousands of nuclear warheads is terrifying. The challenge it poses to the outside world is also evident. What is not so clear is how to meet it.... The clear danger is of 20 months of drift under a frail and discredited president. What the country needs instead is a leader capable of exercising authority. Western heads of government should try to persuade Mr. Yeltsin that the greatest service he could now do to his legacy and his country would be to resign. The likely winners of an election all seem highly unattractive. But even an imperfect government would be better than what is, in effect, no government. The priority is not outside aid, but a legitimate and effective domestic authority. Mr. Yeltsin could still leave his country one invaluable bequest: timely election of a desperately needed replacement."

"Yeltsin Abandons Trip After Illness"

The centrist Independent opined (10/13): "Boris Yeltsin's efforts to reassert himself as leader of a floundering Russia were wrecked last night after he cut short his first foreign trip for more than five months because of ill health. Looking ashen-faced and weak, the president was forced home to Moscow from Kazakhstan.... The trip should have been an opportunity for Mr. Yeltsin to play a statesman's role.... But it turned out as another reminder that...he now increasingly seems physically and mentally incapable of running the world's largest country, a nuclear power in the grip of an economic maelstrom and in political limbo."

"Pity The People"

The conservative Times had this lead editorial (10/8): "Russia is without hope and without leadership worth the name.... The squabbling band of retreads that has passed for a Russian government since Yevgeny Primakov was maneuvered into the premiership four weeks ago may take comfort...concluding that since Russians accept that they have no alternative, further delays in drawing up a new strategy will not produce a political crisis. That would be an appalling outcome."

"Yeltsin Shuffles The Chairs As Russia Goes On Sinking"

The liberal Guardian reported from Moscow (9/29): "The new Russian government's game of musical chairs continued yesterday with President Yeltsin dismissing two ministers, reappointing another, and leaving ten ministerial posts vacant. Despite a warning from the IMF that loans to Russia will be suspended unless the drift to economic anarchy is ended, there is no telling when the music will stop.... The latest government tinkerings confirm Mr. Primakov's inability to reach an agreed economic policy. Like its predecessors, this government is hopelessly divided into conservatives and radicals, so nothing gets done."

"Desperate Russia"

The independent weekly Economist editorialized (9/18): "After nearly seven years of helter-skelter, rough but ready, hideously painful, often mismanaged but nonetheless much needed reform, it is both sobering and depressing to see at the apex of Russian power the ex-Soviet Union's last intelligence chief, its last and hopelessly ineffectual central bank boss and its last plodding head of Gosplan, the state planning agency that had become a byword for self-deluding statistics and all that made communist economics ridiculous. Yet it is a measure of the economic chaos and political desperation into which Russia has fallen, that the new prime minister, Yevgeny Primakov, has been welcomed in Russia and abroad as the least bad man for the job. Is he really the right choice? He may well have been the only choice... There is a chance that he may muddle through.... But it is equally possible that Mr. Primakov may prove a transitional figure, entirely unable to staunch Russia's slide into anarchy, even... disintegration. There is little...that the West can do save watch, wait and hope."

FRANCE: "Can Russia Afford Yeltsin"

Catherine Nay on privately-funded Europe One radio aired this comment (10/27): "One wonders if a nation faced with such serious economic problems can afford to keep such an obviously diminished man as its leader."

"Desperately Seeking Ministers"

Laure Mandeville observed in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/21): "Since the nomination of Prime Minister Primakov there is a false and dangerous quiet over Russia.... In spite of the stabilizing effect of the nomination, Russia is still at the edge of a precipice. The government has not been formed and the economy remains paralyzed.... The government's plans seem neither coherent nor clear...and Primakov is desperately seeking candidates to fill many key cabinet positions."

"The End Of An Oligarchy?"

Veronique Soule in left-of-center Liberation commented (9/18): "The nomination of Primakov is a hard blow for Russia's oligarchy of bankers.... The new prime minister has nothing in common with them. He has no personal fortune, and has very definite ideas about defending Russia's interests...and protecting it from groups of influence.... For Russia's bankers, Primakov is...looking less easy to deal with than Chernomyrdin."

GERMANY: "Yeltsin's Farewell In Installments"

Miriam Neubert argued in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (10/28): "Slowly the Russian state leader is disappearing from the political life of the country.... Only brief meetings with his ministers and advisors remind us that he is still present. For months, it has been Yevgeni Primakov who has managed affairs and who has determined the course in economic policy.... Part of the Kremlin and the political elite in the country are obviously not yet willing to hold early elections. They seem to have adjusted to Primakov as a kind of presidential deputy who is always present while Yeltsin is absent almost all of the time. Even democratic politicians reject new elections out of fear of political turmoil and a constitution which allows a future ruler to have dictatorial powers. But communist- patriotic-national opposition and some ambitious presidential candidates do not want to wait for such a long time.... In addition, the economic situation is deteriorating day by day without Primakov having implemented any concrete steps to stop this decline."

"Yeltsin As Virtual State Leader"

Frank Herold noted in an editorial in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (10/28): "Officially, Yeltsin's term ends in 20 months, but unofficially it has already ended.... We do not need to be medical experts to recognize the frailty of the man. The cancellation of the trip to Vienna saved Russia from great embarrassment. The country is in a difficult situation. A state can no longer be run by Yeltsin. Obviously, he is unable to govern, and he is probably even unable to represent his country.... Nevertheless, he is still necessary because he has not prepared for his succession. The problem is not simply a change of leadership. None of the political groups in Russia will any longer allow so much power to remain in the hands of only the president. Russia is searching not only for a new president, but also for a new balance among the different interest groups. This still requires a period of time for Yeltsin to be available at least as a virtual state leader."

"Primakov--Yeltsin's Rescuer In Emergencies"

Centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich carried this editorial (10/27): "With Primakov, Russia has a partner who is recognized by the opposition and who is well thought of in the international arena. Primakov is someone who promises a certain degree of stability in this explosive mixture of both a power vacuum and a financial crisis and is someone who would be able to ensure a smooth transition to a post-Yeltsin era.... The pressure on Yeltsin to resign is growing, and people are already speculating about guarantees for Yeltsin and his family."

"Ill Yeltsin Cancels Trip To Vienna"

Right-of-center Maerkische Oderzeitung of Frankfurt on the Oder opined (10/27): "The permanently ill Yeltsin canceled his trip at the last moment. He will be replaced by Yevgeni Primakov. This fits the scenario which has been taken place in Moscow over the past few days. According to this scenario, Primakov will soon replace Yeltsin and lead the country through a transitional phase to new elections."

"The IMF Must Also Learn Its Lesson"

Katja Tichomirowa noted in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (10/23): "The preconditions for successful cooperation between Russia and the IMF are as unfavorable as they have ever been, but the two sides are nevertheless doomed to success. Russia is dependent on international financial assistance.... The IMF in turn, has pumped so much money into Russia that it cannot let matters take their course. Future successful cooperation between the IMF and Russia can be based only on economic conditions in the country itself.

"In this context, the IMF must accept a controlled printing of more rubles as well as moderate protectionism in Russia's economic policy.... Russia's food industry could then profit from an increase in prices for Western imports...provided that it gets sufficient loans, since economically successful companies will continue to be dependent on loans. They need foreign exchange to modernize their companies with the assistance of Western technology.... Russia in turn should declare its willingness to grant Western donors control over the use of their loans. But [Russia] will have great difficulties accepting conditions which it considers humiliating."

"Yeltsin In His Final Stages"

Jens Hartmann had this to say in an editorial in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (10/16): "Can anyone govern a nuclear power while not even being able to sign documents or think clearly, and whose public appearances have turned into political fiascos?... Russia has now become the hostage of its own constitution, which gives the president an omnipotent role.... De facto, the president cannot be ousted, he must resign. But this does not yet seem likely.... Twenty months need to pass before the next presidential elections. Things cannot simply be put on hold in view of the disastrous economic situation and Russia's diffuse foreign policy.... The cardinal mistake of Yeltsin's presidency is now coming to haunt him: He did not gather a team around him and did not create a party in which a possible successor could have developed. If Russia...does not want to suffer again from the agony it suffered under Brezhnev and Chernenko, early elections are needed urgently.... However, the Russian tragedy is that there is no tradition of a democratic change of power."

"Coming End Of The President"

Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau carried this editorial by Karl Grobe (10/16):

"Russia is in a crisis, but it is less over food or financial solvency than over the fact that the government moves like a frozen diesel engine. The abilities of the all-powerful president to act is reflected in the opinion polls in the country: only two percent would vote to re-elect him right now. The largest nation in Europe and the second-strongest nuclear power in the world is navigating on autopilot. A soft landing is not foreseen. The possible consequences are not be reassuring. It is true that with Yevgeni Primakov a reserve president is sitting on the governing bench, but he is too busy taking stock of the situation in the country. This loss of power of the Kremlin is affecting regions pursuing...their own interests. The few rich regions are taking as much autonomy as they can get, while nine-tenths of the 'Federation subjects' are excluded. Russia may survive this crisis, but the price for it is increasing every day."

"Up To Primakov To Sell Kremlin Version Of Stability To Rest Of World"

Right-of-center Westfaelischer Anzeiger of Hamm stated (10/15): "As far as politics is concerned, the top man at the Kremlin is a dangerous burden. He is more unpredictable than ever, and he is playing with power which he is no longer able to control. He is thus playing into the hands of those reactionary forces who would like to act as his heirs today rather than tomorrow. Yeltsin's collapse seems to be programmed, and it is illusory to think that he will be able survive until the official presidential elections. Until then, it will be up to Primakov to sell to the rest of the world the Kremlin version of a stable balance that exists in Russia."

"Political Crisis Continues To Smolder"

Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine cautioned (10/15): "Not only the people and his political opponents, but also newspapers and TV stations are openly calling for Yeltsin's resignation. The political class has lost respect for Yeltsin.... Thus the political crisis continues to smolder. As long as the power question in the Kremlin has not been resolved, Russia will hardly succeed in getting its economic crisis under control."

"The Kremlin Leader Needs A Warm Blanket"

Thomas Avenarius stated in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (10/13): "The latest pictures depicting aides helping an exhausted Yeltsin from his armchair on to his weak feet showed to what extent the health of the Russian leader has become a factor of uncertainty for Russian politics.... Not only Russians are wondering whether such an ailing politician can still make important decisions. This is of no use for the country and its people. The planned presidential elections are scheduled to take place in the year 2000. In view of the economic crisis, early elections would result in new problems. If Yeltsin's health remains so unstable, the power in the Kremlin will not be in presidential hands over the next several months."

"Moscow Rollercoaster"

Christof von Marschall noted centrist Der Tagesspiegel of Berlin (9/29) "It is becoming increasingly difficult to understand personnel policy in Russia. The ever faster series of appointments and dismissals gives no evidence of an overall strategy. The situation in Moscow is very contradictory right now. Even the most powerful actors, the president and the prime minister, do not seem to have a clue on how to find a stable majority. They have to keep two things always in mind: how to preserve the conditions to keep at least a minimum of Western confidence, and, at the same time, how to reassure the powerful Communist faction in the Duma.... The West should not harbor any illusions that Russia will show stability in the foreseeable future."

"Measures Don't Signal Quick Recovery"

Centrist Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung held (9/25): "The crisis program of Prime Minister Primakov mainly serves to reassure the Russian people. This step was necessary to prevent a dangerous escalation of the situation. But the quick payments of wages and the increase in salaries in the public service sector will not bring about a profound turnabout. First of all, these measures only mean the curing of old symptoms but not a tackling of the reasons for the current crisis. The planned printing of 40 to 50 billion rubles threatens to increase inflation. It remains questionable whether the simultaneously announced stricter state controls on the economy will prevent a further devaluation of the ruble. In any case, a quick recovery is not in sight. As far as politics is concerned, this must have implications. An economically weak country will have increasing difficulties maintaining its status as a major power."

"Primakov's Vague Promises Are Too Little To Stem Crisis"

Right-of-center Magdeburger Volksstimme argued (9/25): "With the exception of the announcement of 'revolutionary tax plans,' we know no more from Primakov's program...two weeks after he took power. He does not say where the money should come from. The planned printing of more rubles indicates that Russia considers this move to be a panacea to resolve its problems. But this alone will not help the Russian patient to recover. Without a clear concept, the additional money will disappear in the Russian chaos. Russia needs clear statements on how state revenue can be improved and the financial crisis be fought. In such a case, the IMF would be again be willing to release further loans. Primakov's previous vague promises are simply too little."

"Russia's Should Exploit Its Resources Rather Than Beg For Hand-Outs"

Right-of-center Magdeburger Volksstimme recommended (9/21): "The admission that several billion dollars disappeared in the dark morass of the mafia and of corruption, highlights the need for more aid to combat the economic and financial crisis in Russia. But we do not refer to foreign investors which Primakov certainly would like to welcome.

"As long as Russia's financial institutions are not transparent, there will be no investor willing to invest his money in the country.... Russia must learn not to beg for hand-outs, but needs to search for solutions. In this regard, assistance seems reasonable."

"No Additional Funds To Russia Until It Introduces A System Of Controls"

Right-of-center Nordsee-Zeitung of Bremerhaven judged (9/21): "Russia's predicament is self-made. President Yeltsin missed the chance to create functioning institutions to help the country develop economically. This is why it was no surprise that the billions of dollars from the IMF were unable to provide the economy new momentum. The sober explanation for this fact has now been presented by a man who should know. The supreme accountant of the Duma, Sokolov, informed the public that the IMF billions disappeared because necessary financial controls did not exist. For the IMF and the Western governments, this can only mean that further funds should not be transferred to Russia until Moscow has introduced a system of controls."

"Russia Must Help Itself "

Right-of-center Saechsische Zeitung of Dresden stated (9/18): "There is no doubt that the Western Europeans and the Russians need each other. But a Russia that is permanently dependent on the West is of no use either to the West or to the Russians themselves.... Russia must help itself.... In view of the enormous natural resources and the potential of the country...the country is capable of helping itself. This will take a long time, but it is the only solution for setting up a healthy national economy."

ITALY: "Primakov's Shadow"

Giulietto Chiesa commented in centrist, influential La Stampa (10/27): "With the deterioration of Yeltsin's performance, the Russian presidential campaign speeds up.... It is clear that...if Boris Yeltsin gets out of this stage on time, Lebed's dress is not ready yet. The other candidate, who is already 'well dressed,' is Moscow Mayor Luzkov.... of whom everyone is scared.... Only two possibilities remain: either to rapidly get rid of Primakov through a decree which forces him to retire and be replaced by Chernomyrdin or Lebed...or to bet on Primakov from now on. The latter solution has many advantages. The first one is that Russia would not be thrown into renewed chaos."

BELARUS: "Russian Throne Vacant: Belarusian Seeker Still Silent"

Independent Narodnaya Volya (10/17) front-paged an article by Mikhail Podolyak in which he discussed the likelihood of Belarus President Lukashenko's staging a run at the Russian presidency. "The Russian capital will not let Lukashenko anywhere near," according to Podolak. The commentator added that if Lukashenko would ever compete for the Russian presidency, he would have as his rivals [Moscow Mayor] Luzhkov and [Russian People's Republican Party leader] Lebed--populists as good as himself. However, Podolyak foresaw that Lukashenko may be waiting for the Duma to lay the legal foundations for his intentions, i.e., dual citizenship.

BELGIUM: "Yevgeny Primakov's Experiments"

Foreign correspondent Boris Toumanov commented in conservative Catholic La Libre Belgique (9/19): "One already notices that Primakov has no intention of giving a precise ideological color to his future government, but instead wants to surround himself with 'partisans of state' more or less moderate, who can be found in all political factions and at all levels of the federal establishment.

"A government of this nature would be able to continue...cooperation with the West, as well as manage an autarchy in the event that the United States and Europe turn away from a Russia in crisis.... However, Mr. Primakov's clever stratagems are likely to be compromised right away by a new fall of the ruble."

CANADA: "Starting Over From Scratch"

Montreal's centrist. French-language La Presse's Frederic Wagniere asserted (10/28): "It is clear that Mr. Yelstin's state of health has deteriorated to a point that his capacity to serve his country is strongly diminished.... President Yelstin has the intention to stay until the end of his mandate, in June 2000, even if the reality of leadership escapes him more and more.... Western leaders who are in contact with the Russian government cannot put pressure, or even suggest that Mr. Yelstin ease the way to a democratic solution. But they should not hesitate to point out that the mess that reigns inside the Russian political establishment is directly responsible of the financial crisis from which the country will not emerge for many years.... If Russia has to start from scratch with its economy because of the negligence of its leaders, it would only be normal that it also start from scratch politically with the holding of democratic elections."

CROATIA: "Explosive Russian Mixture"

Government-controlled Vjesnik carried this commentary by Carl Gustaf Strohm (10/8): "The catastrophe lies in the fact that the majority of Russians, who after Communism expected a better, dignified and safer life, are today deeply disappointed. Let's not forget what the new Russian Prime Minister Primakov said that Russia wants to remain a world superpower even in the crisis. The combination of such ambitions with desperate poverty can certainly create an explosive mixture."

FINLAND: "Yeltsin Is But A Shaky Facade"

Leftist Kansan Uutiset stressed (10/14): "Only two percent of Russians believe that Yeltsin is still the country's real leader. The figure is cruel, and outright incomprehensible from a Western viewpoint. It shows that in the eyes of the people, Yeltsin is but a shaky facade. This is extremely dangerous. Despair and pessimism are spreading dangerously quickly. One can only hope that Yeltsin and his inner circle draw the only right conclusion as soon as possible."

"Primakov Not Off To A Very Convincing Beginning"

Leading, independent Helsingin Sanomat maintained (10/4): "Primakov is hesitant and dragging his feet. Clearly, he intends to back down from the reforms of the previous government, or at least slow them down, but nobody knows how quickly and by how much. One explanation for the slowness is understandable. Primakov does not want to create new fears right now.... But there is every reason to believe that there are other, more pressing reasons for the delay. President Boris Yeltsin is sick and the political elite is fighting. Russia is in a vicious circle: The political crisis would require a stable economy and the economic crisis a stable political situation. Russia has neither. The population is growing increasingly restive. Russia needs a strong government which chooses a policy line and sticks to it. There is no such government. It may be premature to declare that Primakov has failed, but his beginning has not been very convincing."

KAZAKHSTAN: "Democratic Moscovites Afraid"

Thrice-weekly, independent Express K commented (9/29): "Mr. Primakov is not just a compromise or a 'transitional' figure. The capricious demarche of Alexander Shokhin proves it.

"In Moscow, people seriously speak about the possible victory of Gennadii Zyuganov in the presidential elections. Democratic Muscovites are afraid of this outcome.... But the people from Russia 's interior, sick of a lack of money and alcohol of bad quality, might agree with the such an alignment of forces."

"New Cabinet Being Set Up, But Only A Few People Trust It"

Official Yegemen Kazakhstan remarked (9/26): "There is a feeling that because of the lack of time, only one week, some of the new cabinet members were chosen in a hurry. But many candidates refused to join the cabinet, mainly because people don't think that the new government will be able to make [the necessary] changes and complete [the needed] economic reforms. Russians only hope may be the 2000 elections."

POLAND: "Twilight Of The Kingdom"

Leopold Unger wrote in liberal Gazeta Wyborcza (10/8): "Yeltsin was elected in democratic elections...and...he never attempted to act against law. These are facts without precedence in one thousand years of Russia's history. It would be a bad thing if the street were to quench this new and fragile tradition."

SPAIN: "The Ghost Of The Yeltsin That Was"

Independent El Mundo remarked (10/28): "This time the medical bulletin mentions 'asthenia' [bodily weakness] and 'depression,' although everyone in Moscow realizes that Yeltsin's real problem is irreversible cerebral sclerosis.... Under normal conditions, the procedure for replacing the president due to incapacity should already have been put in motion. But nobody wants to contemplate the early elections that would ensue upon his removal--not those now in power who have maneuvered so strenuously to get there, nor the opposition who are not yet ready for the great electoral battle. All prefer that Yeltsin hang on for the two years remaining in his term.... But the situation is growing increasingly grotesque, given that Yeltsin is president in name only."

"A Sick President"

Barcelona's centrist La Vanguardia opined (10/15): "Yeltsin's resignation or removal could turn out to be a cure worse than the illness, as he continues to be the only guarantee of stability in Russia. His departure from the scene would only drag his rivals into a power struggle at a time when the country finds itself in the midst of a serious economic crisis."

"Primakov Still In The Starting Blocks"

Liberal El Pais judged (10/8): "All indications seem to be that Primakov's crudely cobbled-together crew will end up next on the growing list of governments too weak to put in practice the reforms that Russia needs.... From what little has become known up to now, Moscow plans to adopt an undisciplined economic model based on its central bank printing press and the re-establishment of state controls--quite the opposite of what it has agreed to do with the international institutions that have lent it money in the midst of a grave financial crisis.... This makes it improbable that an increasingly irritated IMF will release the $4.3 billion loan tranche that was to have been disbursed last month.... The circumstances would seem to afford scant chances for the survival of Primakov's coalition and even less hope for any emergency plan to overcome the crisis."

EAST ASIA

CHINA: "Russia Unveils Bank Reform Program"

Liu Gang wrote in official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao, 10/27): "The Russian government and its central bank recently unveiled a bank reform program.... Though incomplete, the bank reform plan may open a gap which could break through the crisis. It is possible that the Russian economy will gradually get on track as the banking system recovers."

"Primakov To Stand Tests"

According to an editorial in the official Economic Daily (Jingji Ribao, 9/21): "Financial experts estimated that more than half of the 1600 banks are now on the verge of bankruptcy.... Although Primakov has invited experts from various circles to the new cabinet, it is still fairly hard for him to hammer out an economic platform pleasing to everybody. Obviously, Primakov faces severe challenges in his efforts to work out an economic plan that all will accept and will lead Russia out of difficulties."

INDONESIA: "Russia Adrift"

The government-oriented English-language Indonesian Observer averred (10/23): "It is an alarming fact that while the world is preparing itself to enter the new century, and the era of large-scale transformation, Russia is facing a power vacuum because the central government is not functioning. If workers get to the streets demanding that the government should repay overdue wages and pension arrears, this might lead to a large-scale demonstration pressing for Yeltsin's resignation. But Yeltsin, despite his failing health, is not prepared to accept an early departure and is set on serving his full term as president. The worsening economic condition has greatly affected the living conditions of the people who mostly depend on their government salaries. One of the steps under consideration...is whether or not the government should devalue the ruble as a means of stabilizing the economic condition."

"Russia's Problems Apparent In Yeltsin's Worsening Health"

Leading independent Kompas stated (10/15): "It is not surprising that Russians are beginning to talk about a change of national leadership. Yeltsin's competitors have also begun plotting to push him aside. Meanwhile, the political arena is heating up. Whoever replaces Yeltsin must face the challenges of simultaneously solving political and economic problems."

JAPAN: "Prime Minister To Take Over Diplomacy"

Liberal Tokyo Shimbun's Moscow correspondent Inaguma wrote (10/28): "President Yeltsin in effect conferred on Prime Minister Primakov full authority, with regard to his planned summit talks in Austria with counterparts from the EU. Since it was already decided that Primakov participate instead of Yeltsin in the leaders meeting of APEC forum in November, almost all presidential diplomatic authority is now entrusted to the prime minister. With Yeltsin becoming a lame-duck president, it is also expected that Primakov will soon hold sway over domestic affairs including economic issues. There is growing speculation that Primakov now holds powers tantamount to those of vice president, a post which is now abolished."

"Yeltsin Aides Try To Prolong President's Political Life"

Business-oriented Nihon Keizai Shimbun's Ikeda reported (10/28): "Due to growing health uncertainty, Russian President Yeltsin is unable to deal with the pressing issue of economic management or take initiative in other domestic and diplomatic issues. People are calling for him to step down.

"Aides close to Yeltsin are accepting the fact that he is now a 'symbolic' president... They are trying to prolong Yeltsin's political life by upgrading Primakov to the level of vice president. They have concluded that it would be better for Yeltsin to hold on to power--even though much of his presidential authority is delegated to Primakov--because the prime minister pledges allegiance to Yeltsin.... Despite such efforts, the search for a successor to Yeltsin is likely to accelerate."

SOUTH KOREA: "Yeltsin, Already Dead Politically"

Reporter Kim Sung-joon of conservative Chosun Ilbo noted (10/23): "The Russian media's meager response to President Yeltsin's latest heart attack is worth noting; the same indifference was reflected in the stock market, a phenomenon which marks a clear departure from the past.... All this indicates that Russia is...ready for either Yeltsin's death or his early ouster."

VIETNAM: "Adjusting Moves"

Vietnamese-language army newspaper Quan Doi Nhan Dan (The People's Army) commented (9/22): "In the immediate future, Primakov has said that the government will apply a series of measures aimed at accommodating the foreign exchange market, strengthening government control over foreign currency transactions, and monopolizing the sales of liquors and cigarettes.... Primakov stated strongly that Russia would follow the path of its own choice without accepting any impositions by international financial institutions.... Russia is seriously ill, and to cure such a giant country in its current political-social-economic conditions is becoming increasingly difficult."

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "Destruction Of The Russian State"

The centrist Hindu carried this analysis by columnist Prem Shankar Jha (10/28): "The Russian crisis defies understanding because it is not economic but political. The government's ill thought-out and bungled reforms have started a process that is taking Russia back to the way Europe used to be before the birth of the modern nation-state.... In the absence of a functioning national system of exchange, 'market reforms' have split the Russian system into an international trade sector serviced by foreign exchange, and a local market sector served increasingly by barter.... What the IMF's stabilization prescriptions have done is destroy the medium of exchange.... Without 'real tax revenues' the Russian state is literally withering away.... No solution will work if Russia does not first pull out of the tailspin it is in today. Since the IMF and the West neither understand nor wish to understand the real cause of Russia's distress, help there is virtually ruled out."

"Time For Another Perestroika"

In the right-of-center Indian Express, leftist columnist and general secretary of United Communist Party of India Mohit Sen discussed "the virtual collapse of the Yeltsin regime" (10/14): "Even now it is not certain that this collapse would give Russia a chance to avoid disintegration and disaster. What is clear, however is that the continuation of the Yeltsin regime will make both disintegration and disaster certain. What cannot be ruled out is that Boris Yeltsin and the mafia marketeers, who are the social base of his regime, will make a desperate bid to retain power.... The new government can take on the mafia, though defeating it would be a formidable task."

"Nyet Prime Minister"

Analysis in the centrist Statesman by freelance journalist Hari Vasudevan pointed out (9/19): "Age and the demoralizing consequences of his economic reforms, however, are major problems for the President.... Under the circumstances, the appointment of Primakov...may only be a means of marking time in Russian politics, with a day of reckoning in the immediate future. The outcome of such a reckoning is wholly uncertain; and it is impossible to presage an immediate Communist resurgence of force and vigor, whatever the authority of the left today. On the other hand, without institutions worth the name at his command and a volatile public, the major challenge that Yeltsin faces in the near future is as much from the disintegration of government in Russia as the campaigns of his opponents of the left and center."

NEPAL: "Present Crisis Economic, Not Political"

The centrist Himalaya Times commented (9/20): "The present crisis is not political but economic.... The ramshackle economy, a legacy of dictatorial communist rule, was unable to compete with advanced Western economies.... This resulted in a disorder of economic management.... The new prime minister cannot re-establish a communist system of government, nor can he revive the old socialist economic system...but it will never be easy for the diehard Communists to digest liberal political and economic systems."

SRI LANKA: "Will The Russian Federation Break Up?"

Izeth Hussain warned in the government-controlled Sunday Observer (10/25) "The Russian economy spent years convalescing and is now again in danger of dying.... Continued and serious economic stress could lead to a xenophobic recoil from all that is non-Russian, and it cannot be ruled out that that could lead to a preparedness to jettison what is left of the Czarist and Soviet empires in the form of the present Russian Federation."

LATIN AMERICA

ARGENTINA: "A Respite For The Russian Crisis"

An editorial in leading Clarin read (9/18): "Primakov...looks like an experienced figure...belonging to...a moderate line between liberal reformers and nationalist Communists.... The new government has to re-establish the basic functions of the state, which are paralyzed.... It will have to pay salaries and pension allowances, the huge public debt, fix a stable value for its currency, supported by reserves, and show an effective territorial control. Approaching these goals will be the best guarantee for international financial institutions and the West that Russia is doing its best to come through its crisis."

CUBA: "Russia: The Great Failure"

Cuba's only daily paper, Communist Party Granma, judged (10/27): "The construction of capitalism has demonstrably been a great failure. As we can see, the failure is not only reflected in the economic order. The moral and social crisis that is evident there may be even more disturbing. And although what is most talked about and most hoped for is to 'save' Russian capitalism--the so-called aid from the IMF and the World Bank--their own Nezavisimaya Gazeta asserted recently that 'the loans from the IMF are only an aspirin that will have lowered the temperature of the economic disease from 40 to 38 degrees...but which is incapable of curing it.'"

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

10/28/98

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