Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

EUROPE

RUSSIA: "Reforms At The Expense Of The West"

Vyacheslav Zalomov commented in the State Duma's newspaper Parlamentskaya Gazeta (7/15), "Many deputies in the State Duma are of the opinion that the government, by pressing for new loans from international bankers, is concerned first of all about its own fate and the well-being of the Russian oligarchs who support it. In our opinion, foreign loans, given they are rationally used, may serve as a powerful prop for our economy which should be put in shape mostly by domestic efforts with the emphasis on production. Otherwise, the prospect will be bankruptcy and a prison for debtors. After all, nobody gives loans for free. Somebody at some point of time will have to return them."

"Time For Strategic Changes In Our Economic Policy"

Alexander Privalov observed in reformist Izvestia (7/15), "Along with the sudden lavish Western credits comes a certain freedom of action and now it is vitally important for this, alas, temporary breathing spell to be used not only for a more or less virtuoso plugging of holes, but also for strategic changes in economic policy.... Although the government's resolve 'to live according to its means' is novel, in theory it is not novel at all. It is not the first year that we are hearing statements about the need to increase budget revenue and decrease budget spending. There are no fundamentally new ideas in the government program and for this reason nobody pays attention to the words about 'a new course.' Yet, the need for a new course is not an invention of the opposition. There is every reason to believe that the measures provided for by the government program are necessary, though by far not sufficient for the commencement of economic growth."

"Putsch In 1998 Is Quite Possible"

Oleg Moroz wrote in the writers' weekly Literaturnaya Gazeta (7/15): "The situation is thus: On the one hand, there is the president who counts on the loyalty of the generals and, on the other hand, there are the radicals in the opposition who are actually urging these very officers to rebel.... Who will have the upper hand? The answer is far from obvious. If only everything could be solved by lavishly promoting the generals.... In principle, nobody today stands to gain from a coup, except for a handful of professional adventurers (but they exist everywhere and in all times). But at such moments people tend to forget what is in their interests and what is not. Everything is decided by the scream 'Down with them!' This scream possesses a magic, hypnotic force. It begins to seem that the supreme truth is concentrated in it. And all logical arguments and economic analyses retreat before this sweeping yell."

"Clinton Helps Russia Secure IMF Credit"

Andrei Kolesnikov stated on page one of reformist Izvestia (7/14): "The IMF's decision to give Russia such a big loan is due not only to the circumstances--the crisis in Russia may spread to foreign markets--but to the active involvement of the U.S. administration, especially President Clinton who has praised the Russian government's stabilization program."

"Clinton Is Scared"

Yevgeny Bai in Washington wrote for reformist Izvestia (7/14): "A scenario whereby Russia's fiscal system bursts at the seams, Yeltsin resigns, and nationalists take over is the worst of all nightmares that the Clinton team might have."

"Loan Is A Prop, Not A Solution"

Aleksei Portansky pointed out in the Finansoviye Izvestia supplement to reformist

Izvestiya (7/14): "Foreign aid is just a prop, sturdy as it might be. We have to repair the whole structure on our own. Foreign aid will not solve the problem, unless we learn to collect taxes and balance the budget by next fall, as indicated in the government's program."

"Merely An Aspirin"

Under this headline, centrist Nezavisimya Gazeta (7/14) front-paged a comment by Tatyana Koshkareva and Rustam Narzikulov: "The victory of Anatoly Chubais [Russia's chief negotiator with the IMF] is not Russia's victory. Economic depression will not go away even after the said billions of dollars arrive. The IMF's aid is merely an aspirin reducing the fever, without curing the disease. Ironically, in the longer term, Western aid is no better than devaluation. Massive Western aid is even worse than devaluation.... This 'stabilization' has nothing to do with the general state of the Russian economy.... The IMF's loan will delay devaluation, add to this country's debt, and dollarize the economy."

"West To Stand By Yeltsin"

Amidst widespread speculation in the Russian media on coup plans, reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (7/11) published a page one comment by Igor Klochkov: "The head of state is demonstrating that he remains a guarantor of the constitution and, if need be, will use force to protect it.... There is no doubt about whom the Western political elite would support.... No Russian oligarch would like to see his reputation set against the authority of the democratically elected head of state."

GERMANY: "Questionable Assistance"

Klaus Engelen noted (7/15) in an editorial in business newspaper Handelsblatt of Duesseldorf: "There are good reasons why, in contrast to the time of Boris Yeltsin's election campaign, it is now Bill Clinton and not Helmut Kohl who organized a large-scale Western aid package to stabilize the ruble. On the one hand, the Clinton administration considers this geopolitically important aid package for Russia's democrats to be a useful lever to pillory the Republican majority in Congress for their refusal to release U.S. contributions to the IMF. If the Republicans continue to block the increase in funds of the IMF, they could bring the IMF to the brink of a disastrous solvency crisis. But the aid package for Russia also involves global crisis management. In view of the fact that the emerging economies in Asia and in Japan are in dangerous turbulence, a collapse of the Russian economy could entail negative implications both regionally and globally and could cause a geo-political deterioration of relations."

"Helper In An Emergency"

Ernst August Ginten wrote in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (7/15): "The aid package of the IMF to Russia will dangerously erode the reserves of the IMF.... These reserves will not be sufficient for the global fire brigade to help another problem country in case of an emergency.... So far, the U.S. Congress has raised massive opposition to an increase in funds to the IMF. By pointing to a looming incapability to act, the IMF has now increased pressure on the U.S. parliamentarians. But in view of the almost empty IMF coffers, many of congressmen will no longer be able to oppose the package, despite their reservations against it.... But even U.S. lawmakers will not be willing to bear responsibility for a global economic crisis which could be caused by inactivity of the IMF."

"First Comes Morale, Then The Money"

Washington correspondent Kurt Kister commented in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (7/15), "The U.S. Senate has shown understanding for the IMF. In contrast to the House of Representatives, the senators have a more realistic and less ideological view of the global responsibility of the United States. But in the House of Representatives, there is a coalition of some Democrats and the right-wing majority of Republicans who are opposed to the IMF. The left-wing accuses the IMF of showing too little consideration for social concerns and human rights in recipient countries, while the right-wing does not like the concept of the United States having to solve all the problems in the world. In addition, they distrust international institutions such as the UN and the IMF, where the United States does not have the say. In addition, the members of the House are also trying to implement their moral convictions on a global scale..... But out of consideration for his voters, President Clinton is not willing to accept the conditions of the Republicans.... This means that Russia's stabilization has become a prisoner of moralizing domestic policy experts from Mississippi and Texas."

"A Supportive Brace Amounting To $41 Billion"

Thomas Urban wrote in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (7/15): "The Kiriyenko cabinet is faced with the gigantic task of establishing order in the country. Compared to the task of setting up an effective administration with incorruptible officials and an independent justice system, it is probably a minor task of establishing a banking system according to Western standards. These things did not exist in Russia even before the rule of the party. But as long as companies, including international ones, are unable to get their rights against a fabric of mafia and state functionaries, who control the economy, this economy will not work. In addition, the premier must also assert his view towards the 'finance industrial complex,' towards the leaders of the world of finance, the arms sector, and the raw materials industry which is in principle not interested in a transparent flow of their capital....

"We can surmise that Kiriyenko has clearly recognized this situation. However, in view of his zig-zag course over the past few years, we cannot say the same of President Yeltsin.... But he is now supporting Kiriyenko's course. However, Yeltsin can govern with decrees only to a limited degree. This is why the government is trying to get the support of parliament for its reform plans. But the Red-Brown majority in the Duma such as the financial oligarchy is not interested in a success of the reforms in contrast to the West, which is now interfering in the conflict by granting a stability loan, even though there is the danger that the money will disappear in dark channels. But the West has no other choice, since all other solutions would be more expensive in the long run."

"The Russian Patient"

Werner Adam argued (7/14) in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine: "Only when Russia no longer mistakes a free market economy for mafia-like piracy can there be an end to the country's inability to live without foreign capital and only then can it take full advantage of its rich economic potential."

"IMF, World Bank Should Stop Fiscal Aid"

Frank Herold wrote in an editorial in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (7/14): "The past years clearly demonstrated that dollar transfers, as comprehensive as they were, have not helped Russia get out of its misery. The constant dollar injections, which are given without any restrictions, even resulted in the fact that the Russians realized too late how sick their economic system really is. These injections have promoted inflexibility and distracted attention from the necessary search for self-healing forces. But the IMF and the World Bank should realize these consequences and finally stop their fiscal aid."

"IMF Loan Would Only Postpone Crash"

Centrist Maerkische Allgemeine Zeitung of Potsdam (7/11) had this to say: "Before the Senate, Premier Kiriyenko openly admitted that the economy and the finances will soon be wrecked. And if the tendency to get loans does not stop by the end of the year, Russia will be faced with bankruptcy. A stabilization loan of the IMF would only postpone the crash. The problems in Russia are of a basic nature: inconsistently implemented reforms, democracy deficiencies, a lack of concepts. These are sins for which not Kiriyenko but his predecessors are responsible. But this is of no interest for the striking miners or the parliament who was opposed to Yeltsin making Kiriyenko the new premier. Right from the start, the Duma refused to support him. The same is now also true for the Senate. This is a very unfavorable constellation to change a course which requires everybody to tighten the belt."

"We Can't Afford To Write Russia Off"

Right-of-center Nordbayerischer Kurier of Bayreuth argued (7/11), "Can we allow to write off an embattled Russia? For the Western Europeans this would be fatal. Their own safe future depends on whether the standard of living in the East can be improved as soon as possible making it impossible for doctrinaires to get a chance."

BRITAIN: "Alternatives To The IMF"

The independent Financial Times opined (7/15): "The heavy demands imposed on the IMF by Asia have left its finances in a weakened state. That much is clear from the decision to draw on credit under the long-dormant General Arrangements to Borrow [a special contingency fund] to help Russia. Yet the U.S. House of Representatives is prevaricating over an $18 billion contribution to its coffers. And there are some who question whether the IMF's task in Russia and Asia is necessary or effective.... The American Congress is justifiably concerned that the IMF's role as an international lender of last resort gives rise to moral hazard. Lenders may advance money to uncreditworthy borrowers on the assumption that the IMF will bail them out. Countries like Russia may flout the IMF's conditionality in the knowledge that wider American foreign policy considerations will ensure continuing funds....

"Yet the question has to be faced as to whether the alternative to such monumental injections of liquidity is feasible. In the case of Russia, it scarcely bares contemplating.... As Michel Camdessus, the IMF managing director, has put it, the IMF's goal should be to ensure that the world has adequate protection against the risks of globalization, together with the chance to embrace the opportunities it provides. To do that, it must have the requisite funds."

"Aiding Russia"

The independent Financial Times opined (7/13), "Russia needs enough outside help to ease the financial panic now threatening it. It should be given not because Boris Yeltsin is a convinced reformer, nor because his new government is bound to keep its promises. Russia should be supported because, with assistance, there is hope of stability and reform; without it, there is none.... The new government consists of the most single-minded and determined group of reformers to hold office since 1992. Its achievements ultimately depend on events outside its control. But it might make substantial progress, provided it survives the next few months. What is needed is an aid package capable of giving the needed breathing space.... The only question for the outside world to answer is whether a chance of success is to be preferred to the certainty of failure. The answer is obvious."

FRANCE: "A Geopolitical Wager"

Pascal Mudry held in centrist La Tribune (7/15): "Frankly, the IMF had very good reasons for postponing its signing a new financial aid program with Russia.... Michel Camdessus himself had previously declared that the IMF would agree to increase its contribution 'only if Russia made an exceptional effort in its reforms.' That is not the case. Then why did the IMF make this decision? Is Chubais such a good negotiator? Or more to the point, has he received strong and irresistible support from the United States and Germany?"

ITALY: "Loans To Russia Push Stock Markets Up"

Ennio Caretto reported from Washington in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (7/15): "Yesterday the world's financial world was relieved...by the Russian bailout.... However, the boom in the stock markets did not dispel all apprehension for the near future of the global economy. On one hand there is the fear that Yeltsin does not succeed in making the Duma approve the IMF package. On the other, there is the IMF warning that it is short of funds.... The reason for the IMF's lack of cash is the American Congress, which has not approved the appropriation of billions of dollars requested by Clinton."

"God Save The Czar"

A front-page editorial by Franco Venturini in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera read (7/15): "Boris Yeltsin's Russia is an atomic bomb ready to explode in the midst of a globalization which has already gone through the hardest trials following the Asian crisis, and while the single currency Europe is preparing its enlargement to the East, while NATO is also enlarging its borders, while the world's investors are wondering how many promises an unregulated market can keep.... Kiriyenko will present a package of financial and fiscal measures to the Duma. For sure, the IMF dollars will help him. But to be effective...the prescription must be a bitter one, and should involve new sacrifices.... However, the Russian people are exhausted and look at the oligarchy of the new rich with increasing anger. Therefore, it is necessary that any dollar given to Yeltsin be closely monitored, that the loans do not take the road to Zurich, but are used to give new legitimacy to democracy and reforms."

"Capitalism, Rope, Communists And Lenin"

Provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio concluded (7/15): "How will Kiriyenko pursue austerity while helping Yeltsin get some of his men elected and defeat the opposition? Perhaps the West may be happy, because the giant from Moscow is completely enmeshed by its debts, in dollars, with the IMF and the international financial operators who own its public bonds. It seems that capitalism has created the rope to hang former Communists and not, as Lenin hoped, the other way round."

"No Other Choice"

Andrea di Robilant filed from Washington for centrist, influential La Stampa (7/14): "The agreement reached in Moscow between Yeltsin and the IMF for a financial package worth $22 billion was welcomed with great relief. The Russian financial crisis has less impact on the global economy than the Japanese crisis. But the White House feared, and still fears, that the social situation may worsen with unforeseeable political consequences.... The White House defined the maxi-loan as a 'major step forward in Russia's reform effort.'... Indeed, the decision to meet the Russian government requests was taken mainly for political reasons. The idea of continuing to give money to Russia might seem illogical to economists, sources in the administration acknowledge, but this government must be supported. There is no other choice.... But it's a road that the administration cannot follow indefinitely without the support of Congress, which continues to block IMF financing."

"World Gives Yeltsin A Hand"

Left-leaning, influential La Repubblica commented (7/13): "Once again, the West will bet its trumps and money on Boris Yeltsin for Russia's stability. But the aid Moscow requested in order to overcome the peak of its financial crisis remains linked to a series of reforms and austerity measures that the Kremlin and the Russian government must prove they are able to implement.... In order to remove the latest obstacles, Bill Clinton, the 'American friend,' exerted pressure on the IMF, since he is determined to bet again on Yeltsin, notwithstanding rumors of possible conspiracies around the Kremlin. Or perhaps just because of these."

BELGIUM: "Kiriyenko Must Defuse Time Bomb Of Social Revolt"

Conservative Catholic La Libre Belgique's Moscow correspondent Boris Toumanov concluded (7/15): "Even though money problems are not deadly, the urgency of such assistance was clear for the international community, lest it would see Russia's financial and economic crisis result over the coming weeks in Boris Yeltsin's premature political death.... It is...certain that, from now on, Boris Yeltsin's political future only depends on Mr. Kiriyenko's ability to rapidly defuse, with the help of the IMF's money, the time bomb of social revolt whose mechanism has already been engaged."

HUNGARY: "Yeltsin's Dollars"

An op-ed piece by senior columnist Tibor Varkonyi in influential daily Magyar Hirlap read (7/14): "After agreeing on all the details, Russia now can go the cashier to get a vast amount of money. Russia can do that, despite the fact that its president not that long ago announced quite proudly that 'Moscow was not begging for alms.' The two international institutions, the IMF and the World Bank, have agreed to grant billions of U.S. dollars to Russia, knowing that they don't have unlimited resources. The only limit is their own cash reserves. Would it be a sacrifice for the West to fulfill almost all needs of the Russian president? Not in the least. Russia is in a deeper than deep crisis and not just in a financial sense.... Its economy is almost entirely controlled by various mafia circles, and it is also quite likely that the new monies granted to Moscow are going to slip through its fingers. Then why is the West, and especially the United States, offering the horn-of-plenty to Russia? Because this ragged and shabby country possesses nuclear weapons that might not be the latest model but are still of a vast destruction potential. Help is given to Yeltsin in order to keep somebody else, a more irresponsible political figure, from getting access to the secret code. It is why President Clinton has dropped his earlier set criteria, why he is going to visit Moscow and why the taps of the IMF and World Bank have opened."

SPAIN: "To Russia's Rescue"

Liberal El Pais commented (7/15): "Long-term Western interests, as Clinton noted yesterday, are what swayed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to offer an immediate relief package to Russia in the amount of $12.5 billion. Neither the United States nor Europe could afford to risk a new crisis there with unforeseeable consequences. Nevertheless, the success of this effort cannot be guaranteed at a time when capital is massively fleeing the country because Russian investors themselves appear pessimistic about the country's future.... [The number of complex problems now affecting Russia and the serious dangers they portend] lead one to conclude that international assistance for Russia should be conditioned, at least to a certain extent, on progress towards the country's democratization. Otherwise, what will emerge will be an authoritarian political model based on the power of industrial and financial groups and the mafia. This is not about merely saving Yeltsin temporarily, or sewing yet another patch on a national fabric in tatters, but rather constructing a better, democratic Russia."

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

CHINA: "West Gives Russia A Transfusion"

Sun Zhanlin commented in the official Chinese Youth Party China Youth Daily (Zhongguo Qingnianbao, 7/15), "Generous as they are, international financial organizations have their own motivations. The turmoil in the Russian financial market will do harm Western economic interests. Western countries are reluctant to see an unstable political situation in Russia. Foreign loans can only temporarily ease the economic pain in Russia. Increasing production is Russia's only way to 'storm past' the difficulties."

INDONESIA: "Economy Threatening Collapse, Russia Seeks IMF Bailout"

Leading independent Kompas asserted (7/13): "It is debatable whether an international aid package will be effective in overcoming Russia's crisis, particularly given the experiences of Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia. The bailout packages for those countries have yet to overcome the crisis. It is almost certain that Russia will be unable to extricate itself from its economic crisis should there be no fundamental improvements in its economy. There are those who say the Russian crisis was in part caused by the impact of the Asian crisis. But more believe it occurred because Russia's economy is fundamentally weak.... Although Soviet-era communism has been left behind, Russia has yet to find a political formula that can guarantee peace and security. The elite's focus remains more on the struggle for power than on economic, social and political improvements. The group that suffers most is still the people."

SOUTH KOREA: "Financial Crisis Averted, But Recovery Doubted"

Conservative Segye Ilbo commented (7/15): "The IMF-led bailout rescued Russia from imminent crisis, but recovery of the Russian economy remains a big 'if'.' The Russian political situation will determine the future of the economy. Many are skeptical about the prospects. The main source of revenue, the oil industry, is on the decline, and a corrupt bureaucracy hampers essential tax reform. On balance, the uncertain political and economic situation continues to make foreign investors jittery. Western nations, including the United States, were more desperate to get the bailout package for Russia than the Russian government itself, because they feared the economic meltdown would shake up the Yeltsin government.... However, it remains to be seen when Russia will hold its hand out for bailout money again."

"Russia, Too, Is Under IMF Guidelines"

Independent Hankyoreh Shinmun held (7/14), "The IMF's rescue package, now promised to Russia, is just enough for a badly needed break. With it coming now, Russia may be able to avoid having to devaluate its currency. While social unrest due to economic difficulties has reached an explosive level, concern over whether the IMF will have sufficient resources to fund the promised rescue further complicates the issue. The challenges are lined up."

SINGAPORE: "Yeltsin's Troubles"

According to the pro-government Straits Times' editorial (7/11), "The Fund has been strict, and must remain so.... Nothing concentrates the mind and collective will in Moscow better than the threat of insolvency. The United States can lecture Russia all it wants about full democratization, but the holders of purse strings ultimately call the tune. With the price of oil, its main earner, down by 40 percent, the ruble having to be propped up with 150 percent interest rates and share market values down by half, only IMF discipline can deliver Russians from their Bolshie ways."

LATIN AMERICA

ARGENTINA: "Yeltsin Must Build Another System, But Maybe It's Too Late"

Guillermo Ortiz commented in business-oriented El Cronista (7/13): "What happens in Russia is important, but its evolution is ignored. Clinton's visit to Moscow in September relocated Russia to the center of the world gameboard at a moment of financial and geopolitical crises. Something is clear: Russia must get better.... Taking into account Washington's new isolationism, that NATO is still looking for a mission and that UN has not redefined its interventionist pattern, the West needs a strong Russia.... But today Russia is a social boiler.... To understand the importance of Russia, we need to review the foreign situation: Indian and Pakistani nuclear escalation, Middle East peace process at a deadlock, the new U.S.-Iran relationship, Chinese awakening and renewed Balkan crisis in Kosovo.... A situation of chain-reaction destabilization, in which Russia has something to say and to do. Because even if it is paralyzed, Russia is a great nation, having responsibilities.... In sum, it cannot escape history. An old aphorism says: 'Russia is never as strong or as weak as it looks.' It can also be applied to Yeltsin. His capability seems to reappear when he looks worn out.... There will be a chaotic process of rebuilding the country. With steps back and forward."

BRAZIL: "Rescuing Russia"

Readers of liberal Folha de Sao. Paulo saw this editorial (7/15): "The help given to Russia recalls to some extent the attitude adopted toward Mexico during the December, 1994 crisis.... More recently, with the crises in Southeast Asia, Japan and Russia, fear has emerged that a worsening of the exchange and financial markets could also affect the confidence in European and U.S. markets. This [situation] has set in motion what seems to be the beginnings of an international safety net aimed at preventing financial disruptions. In the case of Russia, political and even military aspects have contributed to the adoption of the decision to lend. No sensible government would be interested in a crisis that could cause social and political instability of the world's second largest nuclear power."

"A Frightful Specter"

Independent afternoon Jornal da Tarde sketched this scenario (7/15): "The world economy has now been frightened by another ghost--the seriousness of the economic imbalances being experienced by Japan and Russia.... If Yeltsin's settlement with the IMF is completed...part of the threat will be removed at least for a while.... Despite all the advice and even foreign material help, in both Moscow and Tokyo the solution depends fundamentally on the local leaders' political determination and on the politicians' good will."

CHILE: "Unpredictable Consequences"

Influential, centrist La Epoca ran this editorial commented (7/9): "The conflicts that have broken out in Russia because of its economic crisis are beginning to become political and threaten to cause social unrest of enormous proportions, whose effects will be felt throughout the world.... Observers believe that the combination of worker discontent, military unrest and political loss of reputation, together with a brutal economic crisis, could unleash into a situation of unrest of unpredictable consequences."

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7/15/98

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