DATE=1/7/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38607
TITLE=RUSSIA'S ERODING MILITARY (2)
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: ONE OF RUSSIA'S MOST URGENT PROBLEMS IS HOW TO REVIVE ITS
FRACTURED, CONFUSED AND IMPOVERISHED MILITARY. IN THE SECOND OF
TWO REPORTS, V-O-A'S ED WARNER DISCUSSES CURRENT TRENDS AND
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH PROMINENT AMERICAN MILITARY ANALYSTS.
TEXT: WHILE RUSSIA'S REGULAR ARMED FORCES ARE IN DISARRAY AND
SHRINKING, PARAMILITARY GROUPS ARE RAPIDLY GROWING. JAKE KIPP,
PROFESSOR OF MILITARY AFFAIRS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS, SAYS
THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR NOW HAS 264-THOUSAND TROOPS, A CLEAR
RIVAL TO THE REGULAR ARMY GROUND FORCES. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE
THE RUSSIAN BORDER GUARDS STATIONED IN MOST OF THE NATIONS THAT
HAVE EMERGED FROM THE SOVIET UNION.
THESE NEW FORCES MEET A CURRENT NEED, SAYS PROFESSOR KIPP.
RUSSIA FACES NO REAL THREAT FROM OUTSIDE THE FORMER SOVIET
UNION. THE DANGER LIES WITHIN, WHERE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS GIVE
RISE TO ETHNIC AND OTHER KINDS OF VIOLENCE, AT LEAST FROM
MOSCOW'S POINT OF VIEW. THIS HAS BEEN THE RECURRING NIGHTMARE OF
RUSSIAN HISTORY, WHETHER CZARIST OR COMMUNIST.
BUT MULTIPLE FORCES LEAD TO INCONSISTENT POLICIES, SAYS MR. KIPP.
THERE IS NO COHERENT STRATEGY:
// KIPP ACT //
WHO IS IN CHARGE? WHO SUPPORTS WHOM? HOW ARE THOSE
RELATIONS WORKED OUT? YOU NEED WHAT AN OLD CZARIST
GENERAL STAFF OFFICER CALLED "A BRAIN OF THE MILITARY."
YOU NEED SOMEBODY WHO SAYS, "THESE THINGS FIT TOGETHER
THIS WAY. HERE IS HOW WE SEE THEM BEING USED." THAT
INCREASES RATIONALITY, AND THAT MEANS YOU GET OPTIMUM
MILITARY POWER TO DEAL WITH THE SITUATION THAT YOU HAVE.
// END ACT //
A PROFESSOR AT THE STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE OF THE U-S ARMY
WAR COLLEGE, STEPHEN BLANK SAYS SOME AMERICANS YEARN TO SEE A MAN
ON HORSEBACK WHO WILL RIDE TO THE RESCUE OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY.
BUT NOBODY ASSUMES THAT ROLE OR LASTS VERY LONG IN IT.
MEANWHILE, PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN ENDURES. WHILE ADMIRING HIS
TENACITY, CRITICS FAULT HIM FOR FOR AN AUTOCRATIC HABIT OF RULING
BY DIVIDING. HE KEEPS HIS SUBORDINATES ON A VERY SHORT LEASH SO
THEY CANNOT CHALLENGE HIM.
PROFESSOR KIPP NOTES THE STARTLING TURNOVER IN THE YELTSIN
ADMINISTRATION:
// KIPP ACT //
I DO NOT KNOW IF THE PROBLEM IS BORIS YELTSIN, BUT ONE
OF THE MAJOR PROBLEMS IN RUSSIA TODAY IS YOU HAVE A
GOVERNMENT OF MEN AND NOT LAWS. AND THEREFORE,
INSTITUTIONAL DEFINITIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL RELATIONS
TEND TO BE VERY UNSTABLE. THINK ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE
(RUSSIA) HAVE HAD THREE MINISTERS OF DEFENSE IN THE LAST
YEAR, THREE CHIEFS OF THE GENERAL STAFF, TWO CHIEFS OF
THE DEFENSE COUNCIL ONLY CREATED LAST YEAR AND THREE
CHIEFS OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL.
// END ACT //
MR KIPP SAYS A DIVIDED MILITARY HAS LED TO DUBIOUS VENTURES IN
NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, WHICH MOSCOW CALLS THE "NEAR ABROAD." HE
FEARS MORE TROUBLE MAY LIE AHEAD BECAUSE A LARGE PART OF THE
RUSSIAN POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT WILL NOT ACCEPT THE INDEPENDENCE
OF CHECHNYA.
STEPHEN BLANK GOES FURTHER:
// BLANK ACT //
THERE IS A FACTION IN THE KREMLIN THAT WOULD LIKE
NOTHING BETTER THAN TO HAVE ANOTHER ROUND WITH THE
CHECHENS AND IS READY TO GEAR UP FOR CONFLICT IN THE
NORTH CAUCASUS. THIS COULD EXPLODE INTO A WAR WITHOUT A
LOT OF DIFFICULTY. DURING 1998, WE COULD SEE THE RUSSIAN
ARMED FORCES - EITHER THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR OR THE
REGULAR ARMY - ENGAGED IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS, DESPITE
THE LESSONS OF THE PAST, WHICH THEY HAVE NOT YET FULLY
ASSIMILATED OR LEARNED.
// END ACT //
WHILE ITS CONVENTIONAL FORCES ERODE, RUSSIA HAS PUT MORE EMPHASIS
ON ITS FORMIDABLE NUCLEAR ARSENAL. OBSERVERS SAY THIS IS A
LOGICAL RESPONSE TO RUSSIA'S PREDICAMENT, BUT NOT VERY CREDIBLE.
MOSCOW IS NOT LIKELY TO RESORT TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN A REGIONAL
CONFLICT.
BUT MR. KRIPP CAUTIONS YOU CAN NEVER BE TOO SURE. GIVEN RUSSIA'S
WEAK CONVENTIONAL FORCES, A MINOR CLASH COULD HAVE UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES. ALL THE MORE REASON, HE SAYS, FOR RUSSIA AND THE
REST OF THE WORLD TO HASTEN RUSSIAN MILITARY REFORM. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RRM
07-Jan-98 4:25 PM EST (2125 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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