DATE=1/7/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38606
TITLE=RUSSIA'S ERODING MILITARY (1)
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AMONG ITS MANY TROUBLES, RUSSIA HAS A DISPIRITED,
DEMORALIZED AND SHRINKING MILITARY NOT CAPABLE, IN THE OPINION OF
MANY AMERICAN ANALYSTS, OF FIGHTING A MAJOR WAR -- OR PERHAPS
EVEN A MINOR ONE, AS IN CHECHNYA. IN THE FIRST OF TWO REPORTS,
V-O-A'S ED WARNER ASKS SOME PROMINENT AMERICAN MILITARY ANALYSTS
WHERE THEY THINK THE RUSSIAN PROBLEM LIES AND WHAT MIGHT BE DONE
ABOUT IT.
TEXT: A MIGHTY RUSSIAN ARMY TURNED BACK NAPOLEON AND THEN
HITLER. COULD IT DO THE SAME TODAY? MANY HAVE THEIR DOUBTS, GIVEN
THE CONDITION OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY.
ANALYSTS SAY ONLY ONE IN 78 RUSSIAN ARMY DIVISIONS ARE FULLY
SUPPLIED. NAVAL VESSELS LIE RUSTING AT DOCKS FROM MURMANSK TO
VLADIVOSTOK. LESS THAN HALF THE PLANES OF RUSSIA'S AIR FORCE ARE
IN SERVICE, AND THOSE THAT FLY MUST TAKE THEIR CHANCES WITH
OBSOLETE AIR FIELDS.
A PROFESSOR AT THE STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE OF THE U-S ARMY
WAR COLLEGE, STEPHEN BLANK, SAYS A DECAY THAT BEGAN IN THE SOVIET
PERIOD HAS HOLLOWED OUT THE ARMED SERVICES:
// BLANK ACT //
ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS READ THE RUSSIAN PRESS AND
STATEMENTS OF MILITARY MEN THEMSELVES AS TO WHAT IS
GOING ON. THE RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE HAS BASICALLY
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE RUSSIAN ARMY, IN ITS PRESENT
SHAPE, IS INCAPABLE OF EFFECTIVELY DEFENDING THE COUNTRY
OR FIGHTING A MAJOR WAR. IT IS OBVIOUSLY BROKEN DOWN IN
MANY RESPECTS.
// END ACT //
A RECENT RUSSIAN MINISTER OF DEFENSE COMPLAINED: "I AM NOT A
MINISTER OF DEFENSE. I AM A MINISTER OF A DISINTEGRATING ARMY AND
A DYING NAVY."
PROFESSOR BLANK SAYS RUSSIAN MILITARY MEN ARE PAID A PITTANCE AND
OFTEN MUST BEG FOR FOOD. THEY ARE NOT ADEQUATELY TRAINED OR
CLOTHED. PROFESSOR BLANK CONTENDS THAT LAST YEAR, FIVE-THOUSAND
OF THEM DIED IN FIGHTS WITH ONE ANOTHER OR COMMITTED SUICIDE.
WHILE THE RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY DISPUTES THESE FIGURES, MR.
BLANK SAYS THE TOP ECHELON DOES NOT EVEN KNOW HOW MANY MEN ARE
UNDER ARMS OR HOW MUCH IS SPENT PER SOLDIER. IN HIS OPINION, MUCH
OF RUSSIA'S DEFENSE BUDGET IS LOST ON WASTE, DUPLICATION AND
CORRUPTION.
BUT THINK WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE RUSSIAN ARMED SERVICES, SAYS
JAKE KIPP, PROFESSOR OF MILITARY AFFAIRS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
KANSAS:
// KIPP ACT //
THEY HAVE WATCHED THEMSELVES REDEPLOY AT THE END OF THE
COLD WAR OUT OF EASTERN EUROPE AND THEN OUT OF THE OTHER
STATES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. THEY HAD AN ARMY
CREATED REALLY FOR MASS INDUSTRIAL WAR, HUGE IN SIZE,
AND THEY HAVE BEEN DOWNSIZING AND TRYING TO ADAPT, AS
THEY HAVE BEEN FUNCTIONING IN A SOCIETY THAT HAS BEEN
UNSTABILIZED, IN ECONOMIC DECLINE AND IN GENERAL CRISIS
OF ITS INSTITUTIONS.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR KIPP SAYS THE MILITARY REFLECTS THE SOCIETY. THERE WAS
A TIME WHEN NATION AND ARMY WERE LINKED AS ONE IN THE RUSSIAN
CONSCIOUSNESS. THAT HAS BEEN BITTERLY SEVERED BY A SERIES OF
EVENTS -- FROM THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE
SOVIET EMPIRE. THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE FEEL NO GREAT LOYALTY TO THE
ARMY -- NOR THE ARMY TO THE PEOPLE.
THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HAS DRIFTED IN ITS MILITARY POLICY, SAYS
EDWARD LUTTWAK OF THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES:
// LUTTWAK ACT //
THEY HAVE TO MAKE A NATIONAL POLICY DECISION: EITHER TO
DRASTICALLY REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE MILITARY AND HAVE AN
ARMY, NAVY AND AIR FORCE THAT WILL BE, OF COURSE, VERY
SMALL COMPARED TO THE POPULATION OF THE COUNTRY, THE
LENGTH OF ITS BORDERS AND EVERYTHING ELSE, LET ALONE ANY
HISTORIC SENSE OF RUSSIA AS A GREAT POWER;
ORALTERNATIVELY, IN A DESPERATE BUDGET SITUATION CAUSED
BY A FAILURE OF TAX COLLECTION, THEY WOULD HAVE TO CUT
OTHER THINGS.
// END ACT //
MR. LUTTWAK, AN AUTHOR OF SEVERAL BOOKS ON STRATEGY, SAYS MOSCOW
HAS MADE NEITHER CHOICE, AND SO A STILL RELATIVELY LARGE MILITARY
CONTINUES TO EXIST PRECARIOUSLY ON A SMALL BUDGET. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RRM
07-Jan-98 4:25 PM EST (2125 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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