DATE=12/18/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-243271
TITLE=RUSSIAN ECONOMY (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=BARRY WOOD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A RUSSIAN-BORN CONSULTANT TO THE U-S TREASURY DEPARTMENT,
IGOR BIRMAN, FRIDAY TOLD A WASHINGTON FORUM THAT RUSSIA'S
ECONOMIC SITUATION IS GRIM AND GETTING STEADILY WORSE. V-O-A'S
BARRY WOOD REPORTS MR. BIRMAN'S ASSESSMENT IS SIMILAR TO THAT
VOICED A DAY EARLIER (IN WASHINGTON) BY RUSSIAN ECONOMIST AND
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GRIGORY YAVLINSKI.
TEXT: MR. BIRMAN TOLD AN AUDIENCE AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE
INSTITUTE THAT AS RUSSIANS HAVE BECOME POORER, THEY HAVE LOST
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR GOVERNMENT. A RESIDENT OF MOSCOW FOR THE PAST
YEAR, MR. BIRMAN SAYS RUSSIA HAS BECOME THE SICK!MAN OF EUROPE
AND ASIA. THE ECONOMY, HE SAYS, HAS SHRUNK TO OOLY ONE-HALF ITS
SOVIET-ERA SIZE. HE SAYS THE STATE IS CORRUPT AND PUBLIC
MORALITY EVEN WORSE THAN IN SOVIET TIMES. MR. BIRMAN SAYS WESTERN
AID HAS BEEN SQUANDERED AND THE ONCE PRAISED PRIVATIZATION OF
STATE ASSETS EXPOSED AS A SHAM.
MR. BIRMAN SAYS SEVEN YEARS OF MARKET BASED REFORM FAILED TO
PRODUCE THE ESSENTIAL SMALL BUSINESS SECTOR OF THE KIND THAT IS
THRIVING IN POLAND. THE PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVE OF WESTERN POLICY, HE
SAYS, SHOULD BE DO PROTECT ORDINARY CITIZENS FROM THE
CONFISCATORY POWER OF THE STATE.
MR. BIRMAN BELIEVES DICTATORSHIP, BUT NOT CIVIL WAR, IS LIKELY IN
RUSSIA.
//BIRMAN ACT//
FOR THE CITIZENS OF RUSSIA THEY DON'T HAVE ANYTHING TO
FIGHT FOR. AND PRACTICALLY SPEAKING, NOTHING TO FIGHT
AGAINST. SO I DON'T THINK CIVIL WAR IS COMING.
DISINTEGRATION, SOME DISINTEGRATION, I'M AFRAID IS
RATHER LIKELY.
//END ACT//
MR. BIRMAN SAYS IT WOULD BE FOOLISH FOR WESTERN NATIONS NOW TO
PROVIDE MORE FINANCIAL AID TO RUSSIA. HE BELIEVES
HYPER-INFLATION (INFLATION OF MORE THAN 50 PERCENT PER MONTH) HAS
ALREADY ARRIVED. HE CALLS THE AUGUST 17TH DEVALUATION AND DEBT
DEFAULT A CATASTROPHE.
BY CONTRAST, GRIGORY YAVLINSKY THE OPPOSITION POLITICIAN AND
DECLARED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, IS MORE OPTIMISTIC. MR.
YAVLINSKY TOLD THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
THAT CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT CAN BE RESTORED. HE FAVORS
FAR-REACHING TAX REFORM AND STABILIZATION MEASURES THAT WOULD
ENCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF SMALL BUSINESS. MR. YAVLINSKI SAYS SEVEN
YEARS OF FAILED REFORM AND PRIVATIZATION HAVE REACHED A DEAD END.
//YAVLINSKI ACT//
EVERYTHING IS PRIVATIZED BUT THERE ARE NO OWNERS. THERE
IS NO ONE TO INVEST. THERE IS NO ONE TO TAKE CARE OF
THAT. THERE IS NO PEOPLE TAKING CARE OF WORKING PLACES.
THERE IS NO ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FUTURE OF
ENTERPRISES. SO WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING.
//END ACT//
MR. YAVLINSKY SAYS IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT TO
PAY ITS FOREIGN DEBTS. (SIGNED)
NEB/BDW/RRM
18-Dec-98 5:50 PM EST (2250 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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