DATE=10/29/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41728
TITLE=RUSSIA: WHAT WENT WRONG?
BYLINE=CHALLISS MCDONOUGH
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV HAS INDICATED HIS
GOVERNMENT WILL "TAKE FIRM MEASURES" TO STRENGTHEN ITS CONTROL
OVER RUSSIA'S STRUGGLING ECONOMY. SUCH A SHIFT COULD AFFECT
MOSCOW'S CHANCES OF GETTING FURTHER FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, WHICH IS CONSIDERING THE RELEASE OF
ANOTHER INSTALLMENT IN AN AID PACKAGE FOR RUSSIA WORTH MORE THAN
22-BILLION DOLLARS. SOME ANALYSTS IN WASHINGTON SAY ANY MOVE
TOWARD TIGHTER STATE ECONOMIC CONTROLS WOULD BE A FURTHER RETREAT
FROM FREE-MARKET REFORMS. A CONSERVATIVE THINK TANK IN
WASHINGTON SPONSORED A CONFERENCE THIS WEEK [ON THURSDAY] TO
RE-EXAMINE U-S POLICY ON RUSSIA, AND THE TRAJECTORY OF RUSSIAN
REFORMS. V-O-A'S CHALLISS MCDONOUGH REPORTS.
TEXT: THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION CALLED ITS CONFERENCE, "WHAT WENT
WRONG IN RUSSIA?" OFFICIALS FROM TWO U-S PRESIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIONS JOINED RESEARCHERS FROM THE PUBLIC POLICY
INSTITUTE TO TALK ABOUT THE COLLAPSE OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND
RECENT SHIFTS IN THE COUNTRY'S LEADERSHIP.
FROM THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION, FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY CASPAR
WEINBERGER ROUNDLY CRITICIZED WHAT HE CALLS THE RETURN OF
COMMUNIST-ERA LEADERS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF BORIS YELTSIN. HE
SAYS FROM THE WEST'S POINT OF VIEW, PRIME MINISTER YEVGENY
PRIMAKOV IS "THE VERY WORST POSSIBLE MAN" FOR THE JOB. HE SAYS
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC POLICIES HAVE INSURED THAT FOREIGN INVESTORS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO RETURN. BUT MR. WEINBERGER DOES NOT LAY ALL THE
BLAME AT THE FEET OF THE RUSSIAN LEADERS.
/// WEINBERGER ACT ///
FOR THEM TO TAKE WESTERN-SUPPLIED AID -- AN ENORMOUS
AMOUNT -- AND USE IT TO REGAIN A MILITARY STRENGTH WHICH
IS TOTALLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR A COUNTRY SUCH AS RUSSIA,
WHICH NEEDS TO SPEND ALL ITS TIME TRYING TO REGAIN ITS
ECONOMIC CAPABILITIES ... IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THAT IS A
VERY MAJOR POLICY FAILURE ON [THE PART OF] WHOEVER
CAUSES IT, AND IT SEEMS TO ME WE HAD A VERY LARGE AMOUNT
TO DO WITH CAUSING IT.
/// END ACT ///
MR. WEINBERGER AND OTHER PANELISTS BLAME THE CURRENT RUSSIAN
SITUATION IN NO SMALL PART ON U-S POLICIES TOWARD RUSSIA --
PARTICULARLY THOSE OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. THE PANEL
CRITICIZED THE U-S TENDENCY TO LINK ITS FOREIGN POLICY TOO
STRONGLY TO PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH RUSSIAN LEADERS, RATHER
THAN SIMPLY BACKING DEMOCRATIC POLICIES OR PRINCIPLES.
HERITAGE FOUNDATION FOREIGN-POLICY SCHOLAR KIM HOLMES SAYS
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN HAS DISCREDITED DEMOCRACY,
FREE-MARKET IDEAS AND THE UNITED STATES ITSELF IN THE EYES OF THE
RUSSIAN PEOPLE.
/// HOLMES ACT ///
THE CENTRAL FLAW WAS THAT THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION
MADE THE MISTAKE OF ASSUMING THAT BACKING BORIS YELTSIN
PERSONALLY WAS THE SAME THING AS BACKING REFORM AND
DEMOCRACY IN PRINCIPLE AND IN PRACTICE. ... WHATEVER
BORIS YELTSIN MAY HAVE DONE IN RUSSIA... HE DID NOT
INTRODUCE A WORKABLE FREE MARKET AND DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM.
/// END ACT ///
MR. HOLMES ALSO SAYS THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IS NOT THE
KEY TO REFORMING THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD STOP "FUNNELING" MONEY THROUGH THE I-M-F INTO RUSSIA.
INSTEAD, HE WANTS THE UNITED STATES TO USE ITS AID AS LEVERAGE TO
ENCOURAGE MORE U-S-FRIENDLY POLICIES.
FORMER C-I-A DIRECTOR JAMES WOOLSEY, WHO WAS NAMED TO HEAD THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY AT THE BEGINNING OF PRESIDENT
CLINTON'S FIRST TERM IN THE WHITE HOUSE, DID NOT EXACTLY LEAP
TO THE DEFENSE OF HIS FORMER BOSS. HE SAID THE AMERICAN ROLE IN
RUSSIA HAS BEEN MIXED AT BEST, BUT HE THOUGHT U-S POLICY BEGAN TO
GO AWRY UNDER THE WATCH OF MR. CLINTON'S PREDECESSOR, GEORGE
BUSH. MR. WOOLSEY WAS PARTICULARLY CRITICAL OF BOTH U-S AND
RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP ON THE ISSUE OF CORRUPTION.
/// FIRST WOOLSEY ACT ///
THERE HAS BEEN FAR TOO LITTLE ATTENTION TO ESTABLISHING
THE RULE OF LAW IN RUSSIA, AND FAR TOO MUCH BELIEF THAT
ECONOMIC REFORM OR POLITICAL CHUMMINESS (FRIENDLINESS)
WOULD LEAD TO THE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES THAT NEED TO BE
MADE.
/// END ACT ///
ALL THE PANELISTS EXPRESSED CONCERNS FOR THE DIRECTION IN WHICH
RUSSIA IS HEADING. SOME, LIKE FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY
WEINBERGER, WARN OF A RETURN TO COMMUNIST-INSPIRED DICTATORSHIP.
BUT FORMER C-I-A DIRECTOR WOOLSEY FEARS THE COUNTRY MIGHT FALL
APART, AND HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
LEVERAGE TO PREVENT THAT FROM HAPPENING.
/// SECOND WOOLSEY ACT ///
HOWEVER MUCH WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE SITUATION TODAY,
I THINK WE NEED TO FOCUS ESSENTIALLY THE WHOLE EFFORTS
OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND THE WEST ON DOING
WHAT WE CAN, HOWEVER WEAK OUR HAND, TO SEE THAT WE DON'T
END UP WITH A COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION AND A TIME OF
TROUBLE IN RUSSIA. HOWEVER BAD IT IS NOW, IT COULD GET
WORSE.
/// END ACT ///
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MR. WOOLSEY, MOST MEMBERS OF THE
HERITAGE FOUNDATION PANEL REPRESENT THE CONSERVATIVE END OF THE
POLITICAL SPECTRUM. THEY LEAN TOWARD A RATHER UNCOMPROMISING
POLICY ON RUSSIA, ONE THAT WOULD ENCOURAGE MORE DEMOCRATIC AND
FREE-MARKET REFORMS, AS WELL AS A MORE WESTERN-FRIENDLY FOREIGN
POLICY. (SIGNED)
NEB/CEM/WTW
29-Oct-98 7:21 PM EST (0021 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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