DATE=9/14/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41368
TITLE= RUSSIA'S FUTURE
BYLINE= KEN SCHWARTZ
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AFTER A MONTH OF FLOUNDERING WITH NO GOVERNMENT AND AN
ECONOMIC FREE-FALL, RUSSIA HAS A NEW PRIME MINISTER. FORMER
FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV IS PROMISING TO CHANGE THE
APPROACH TO ECONOMIC REFORMS AND PROTECT RUSSIANS FROM THE
FINANCIAL CRISIS. CORRESPONDENT KEN SCHWARTZ TALKED TO TWO
EXPERTS WHO BELIEVE RUSSIA HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE FINDING
ANSWERS TO ITS VAST PROBLEMS.
TEXT: WHEN THE SOVIET UNION BROKE UP IN 1991, MILLIONS OF
RUSSIANS SAW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THEIR LIVES, A FUTURE OF
FREEDOM AND ECONOMIC PROSPERITY. BUT SEVEN-YEARS OF MARKET
REFORMS RESULTED IN DISARRAY.
RUSSIAN EXPERT DIMITRI SIMES, PRESIDENT OF THE NIXON CENTER IN
WASHINGTON, EXPLAINS WHY.
/// SIMES ACT ///
FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, WE WERE MISLEAD BY THE RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT, BY THE OLIGARCHS AND BY THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION ABOUT WHAT WAS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA. WE
WERE TOLD THAT SERIOUS AND REAL DEMOCRATIC REFORMS WERE
TAKING PLACE, BUT INSTEAD, THEY WERE ESTABLISHING
CAPITALISM WITHOUT CAPITAL, MARKETS WITHOUT REGULATION,
AND DEMOCRACY WITHOUT MUCH ATTENTION TO THE POPULAR
WILL.
MR. SIMES SAYS HE IS ENCOURAGED BY THE PREMIERSHIP OF YEVGENY
PRIMAKOV. HE CALLS HIM AN EXPERIENCED AND CAUTIOUS POLITICIAN
WHO IS ON GOOD TERMS WITH NEARLY EVERYONE IN POWER IN RUSSIA.
/// SIMES ACT ///
HE HAS SOME AUTONOMY FROM BORIS YELTSIN AND HIS
ENTOURAGE, SOME AUTONOMY AS FAR AS THE COMMUNISTS IN THE
DUMA ARE CONCERNED, SOME AUTONOMY FROM THE OLIGARCHS. I
THINK THAT THIS IS A MINIMAL REQUIREMENT TO BE ABLE TO
MAKE ANY CONSTRUCTIVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE RUSSIAN
SITUATION TODAY.
BUT HE SAYS THE FEAR OF SOCIAL UPHEAVAL WILL KEEP MR. PRIMAKOV
AND RUSSIAN LEGISLATORS FROM MAKING CHANGES THAT SEEM LOGICAL TO
IMPLEMENT.
/// SIMES ACT ///
WHEN THEY LOOK AT GROWING STRIKES, WHEN THEY READ THAT
MILITARY UNITS ARE INCREASINGLY BUILDING TIES TO
REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS AT THE EXPENSE OF LOYALTY TO THE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, WHEN THEY HEAR ALL THAT, THEY VERY
OFTEN FEEL THAT FIRST THINGS SHOULD COME FIRST, AND THEY
SHOULD DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO AVOID THE WORST, TO AVOID
A SOCIAL EXPLOSION WITH MOST UNPREDICTABLE CONSEQUENCES.
PROFESSOR OF RUSSIAN HISTORY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN,
DENNIS PARPAZIAN, SAYS ONE OF MR. PRIMAKOV'S BIGGEST CHALLENGES
WILL BE SHAKING RUSSIA OF THE OLD COMMUNIST MINDSET.
/// PARPAZIAN ACT ///
SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS OF THAT HAS PRODUCED A SOCIETY WHICH
IN THE OLD TERMINOLOGY WE WOULD CONSIDER BACKWARD IN
MANY WAYS. THE SOCIAL STRUCTURES JUST DID NOT DEVELOP.
AND PARTICULARLY, YOU HAVE TO HAVE DIFFERENT GROUPS AND
ORGANIZATIONS. YOU HAVE TO HAVE FREE ASSOCIATIONS. ALL
OF THESES THINGS ARE VERY BASIC AND FUNDAMENTAL TO
PEOPLE LEARNING HOW TO PRACTICE A DEMOCRATIC FORM OF
GOVERNMENT AND TO PRACTICE A REASONABLE ECONOMIC SYSTEM.
PROFESSOR PARPAZIAN BELIEVES WHAT THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE NEED IS AN
INCENTIVE TO BUILD UP THEIR FINANCIAL AND SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
/// PARPAZIAN ACT ///
THERE MUST BE SECURITY OF LIFE AND PROPERTY, SECURITY OF
LAW BEFORE PEOPLE WILL SAVE IN ADVANCE. AND THERE IS NO
REAL SECURITY AND LAW IN RUSSIA, THERE IS NO SECURITY OF
PROPERTY AND SO WHY SHOULD PEOPLE INVEST.
BUT, PROFESSOR PARPAZIAN SAYS HE HOPES MR. PRIMAKOV CAN BRING A
CONSISTENCY TO RUSSIA.
/// PARPAZIAN ACT ///
I THINK THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR IS POLITICAL AND
ECONOMIC STABILITY IN RUSSIA SO THE RUSSIANS CAN TACKLE
THEIR OWN PROBLEMS. THEY ARE A BRILLIANT PEOPLE, THEY
ARE HARD-WORKING, THEY ARE GOOD-NATURED AND I THINK IF
THEY ARE GIVEN HALF A CHANCE BY THE GOVERNING STRUCTURE,
BY THE ELITE, THEY WILL DO A GOOD JOB OF IT.
NEITHER PROFESSOR PARPAZIAN NOR MR. SIMES ARE WILLING TO MAKE
FIRM PREDICTIONS ABOUT RUSSIA'S FUTURE. THEY SAY IT IS A PLACE
WHERE UNTHINKABLE THINGS SOMETIMES HAPPEN. (SIGNED)
NEB/KS/RAE
14-Sep-98 1:03 PM EDT (1703 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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