DATE=9/2/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41286
TITLE=RUSSIA / U-S / ARMS
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: PRESIDENTS CLINTON AND YELTSIN HAVE SIGNED TWO ARMS
CONTROL AGREEMENTS THEY SAY WILL MAKE THIS A SAFER WORLD. BUT AS
V-O-A MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN REPORTS, THE DEALS
REPRESENT FAR LESS THAN WHAT THE TWO COUNTRIES HAD HOPED FOR WHEN
THE SUMMIT WAS PLANNED.
TEXT: THIS WAS TO HAVE BEEN AN ARMS CONTROL SUMMIT. THERE WAS
EVEN A FAINT HOPE A FEW MONTHS AGO THAT RUSSIA'S RELUCTANT DUMA,
THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT, MIGHT BE PERSUADED TO RATIFY THE
START-TWO ARMS REDUCTION TREATY.
BUT BY THE TIME PRESIDENT CLINTON ARRIVED IN MOSCOW, THAT HOPE
HAD BEEN DASHED. RUSSIA IS WITHOUT A GOVERNMENT. PRESIDENT
YELTSIN IS POLITICALLY AND PHYSICALLY WEAKENED. AND THE DUMA IS
IN OPEN REVOLT.
ANALYST SERGEI KOLMAKOV OF THE FOND POLITIKA RESEARCH INSTITUTION
SAYS THAT IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS NO CHANCE THE
DUMA WILL CONSIDER ARMS CONTROL TREATIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
/// KOLMAKOV ACT ///
DURING THE PRESENT CRISIS IN RUSSIA, THE STATE DUMA HAS
NO INTENTION TO RATIFY THE START-TWO AGREEMENT. IT
SEEMS TO ME EFFORTS OF THE LEADERS OF THE LOWER HOUSE OF
PARLIAMENT ARE CONCENTRATED ON TOPICS OF BATTLE FOR
POWER WITH THE PRESIDENT.
/// END ACT ///
WITH DUMA COOPERATION RULED OUT, THE TWO NATIONS SETTLED ON TWO
MEASURES THAT WILL NOT REQUIRE RATIFICATION.
ONE SPELLS OUT WAYS FOR EACH COUNTRY TO DISPOSE OF 50 TONS OF
DEADLY PLUTONIUM LEFT OVER FROM NUCLEAR STOCKPILES. THE OTHER
CALLS FOR SHARING INFORMATION ABOUT BALLISTIC MISSILE AND SPACE
ROCKET LAUNCHES, IN HOPES OF REDUCING THE DANGER OF AN ACCIDENTAL
NUCLEAR EXCHANGE.
ARNOLD HORELICK OF THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR PEACE SAYS THE
INFORMATION SHARING DEAL IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AT A TIME WHEN
RUSSIA'S EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IS DETERIORATING.
/// HORELICK ACT ///
I THINK IT HELPS GIVE SOME REASSURANCE TO RUSSIA GIVEN
THE DETERIORATION OF THE GROUND-BASED EARLY WARNING
RUSSIAN SYSTEM WHICH HAS VERY BIG HOLES IN IT AND MAKES
THEM NERVOUS. AND IN A WAY IT GIVES THE U-S, THE UNITED
STATES, A REASSURANCE. IT PROVIDES A LITTLE BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE ABOUT NOT EXPERIENCING ACCIDENTAL LAUNCHES
ON THE RUSSIAN SIDE.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// MR. HORELICK RECALLED AN INCIDENT IN 1995 WHEN
THE RUSSIAN MILITARY WENT ON ALERT AFTER MISINTERPRETING A
NORWEGIAN SCIENTIFIC ROCKET LAUNCH FOR A SUBMARINE MISSILE
ATTACK. /// END OPT ///
BUT MR. HORELICK SAYS WHILE OTHER ACCORDS SIGNED AT THE SUMMIT
ARE MARKS OF PROGRESS IN THE U-S / RUSSIA STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP,
THEY FALL FAR SHORT OF EARLIER EXPECTATIONS.
/// 2ND HORELICK ACT ///
GIVEN THAT THIS SUMMIT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A SUMMIT THAT
WOULD MARK RATIFICATION OF START-TWO, AND TO MOVE ON TO
START-THREE, WHICH WOULD HAVE BOTH SIDES NEGOTIATE VERY
DEEP CUTS IN THEIR ARSENALS, THESE TWO AGREEMENTS THAT
WERE ACTUALLY SIGNED ARE RELATIVELY SMALL POTATOES
COMPARED TO A MUCH LARGER SET OF ISSUES STILL UNRESOLVED
AND WAITING FOR DUMA RATIFICATION OF THE START TWO
TREATY.
/// END ACT ///
MR. HORELICK SAYS THIS JUST CONCLUDED SUMMIT CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES
THAT, WITH RUSSIA IN FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL TURMOIL, ARMS
CONTROL HAS LOST ITS PLACE AS THE CENTRAL ISSUE OF RELATIONS
BETWEEN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON. (SIGNED)
NEB/PFH/JWH/PLM
02-Sep-98 1:37 PM EDT (1737 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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