DATE=8/30/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41263
TITLE=RUSSIA SUMMIT
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: RUSSIA'S FINANCIAL CRISIS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSHADOW
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN'S TWO DAYS OF TALKS THIS WEEK WITH
PRESIDENT CLINTON. MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN PREVIEWS
A SUMMIT THAT BRINGS TOGETHER TWO LEADERS STRUGGLING TO SHAKE OFF
INCREASING DOMESTIC PRESSURES.
TEXT: IT IS BEING PRIVATELY REFERRED TO AS "THE SILLY SUMMIT".
AT A PRE-SUMMIT BRIEFING FOR REPORTERS, SEVERAL ANALYSTS
QUESTIONED THE LOGIC OF A MEETING BETWEEN TWO WEAKENED PRESIDENTS
AT THIS TIME OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN RUSSIA.
THE SUMMIT THAT BEGINS TUESDAY IS THE LATEST IN A LONG SERIES OF
MEETINGS BETWEEN LEADERS FROM WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW. DURING THE
SOVIET PERIOD, THESE SO-CALLED "SUPERPOWER SUMMITS" WERE AIMED AT
REDUCING COLD WAR TENSIONS. MORE RECENTLY, THEY HAVE FOCUSED ON
ARMS CONTROL.
THE HEAD OF MOSCOW'S U-S-A/CANADA INSTITUTE, SERGEI ROGOV, SAYS
THIS MEETING WILL BE DIFFERENT.
/// ROGOV ACT ///
THIS ONE IS GOING TO BE A VERY UNUSUAL SUMMIT, BECAUSE
FOR THE FIRST TIME THE AGENDA IS DOMINATED NOT BY
STRATEGIC QUESTIONS AND NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL, POLITICAL
ISSUES LIKE REGIONAL CONFLICTS. THE REAL MEANING OF
THIS SUMMIT IS RELATED TO THE ECONOMIC SITUATION, AND
THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COLLAPSE OF RUSSIA,WHICH
CREATED A VERY ASYMMETRICAL SITUATION IN THE
RUSSIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS.
/// END ACT/ //
MR. ROGOV SAYS AT THIS SUMMIT, DOMESTIC POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES
FACING BOTH PRESIDENTS WILL MAKE MEANINGFUL AGREEMENTS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE.
/// 2ND ROGOV ACT ///
BOTH OF THEM ARE LAME DUCKS, BOTH OF THEM FACE
TREMENDOUS CREDIBILITY CRISES AT HOME, AND IF FOR
INSTANCE THERE IS A BREAKTHROUGH, AND I DOUBT THAT, AND
THEY DECIDED TO SIGN SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT, IT IS
UNLIKELY THEY WILL GET THAT RATIFIED EITHER BY THE DUMA
OR THE U-S CONGRESS.
/// END ACT ///
MR. ROGOV SAYS THIS IS A PARTICULARLY BAD TIME FOR A SUMMIT
BECAUSE AFTER THE EVENTS OF THE PAST WEEK, THERE IS CONFUSION
ABOUT THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DIRECTION RUSSIA WILL TAKE.
/// 3RD ROGOV ACT ///
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SPECULATE WHAT RUSSIA WANTS
BECAUSE THE QUESTION IS, WHICH RUSSIA. BASICALLY,
RUSSIA WANTS STABILITY. RUSSIA WANTS TO AVOID FREE
FALL, WHICH WE ALREADY EXPERIENCED IN THIS DECADE, WHICH
THREATENS US AGAIN. AND RUSSIA WANTS TO AVOID THE
HUMILIATING EXPERIENCE WHEN ITS ECONOMIC DEPENDENCE
COULD BE USED TO DICTATE CERTAIN CHANGES IN RUSSIAN
FOREIGN POLICY.
/// END ACT ///
U-S DIPLOMATS SAY PRESIDENT CLINTON WILL SPEND SEVERAL HOURS IN
TALKS WITH THE RUSSIAN LEADER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BUT IN A
SIGN OF RUSSIA'S SHIFTING POLITICAL POWER EQUATION, THE PRESIDENT
WILL ALSO MEET A NUMBER OF OTHER PROMINENT POLITICAL FIGURES,
INCLUDING THE FOUR MEN CONSIDERED THE LEADING CONTENDERS TO BE
MR. YELTSIN'S SUCCESSOR. (SIGNED)
NEB/PFH/DW/RAE
30-Aug-98 12:31 PM EDT (1631 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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