DATE=06/03/98
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-10746
TITLE=RUMINATIONS ON RUSSIA'S RUBLE RETREAT
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
INTRO: AT MIDWEEK, THE FINANCIAL CRISIS GRIPPING RUSSIA,
APPEARED TO BE EASING SOMEWHAT, AS THE VALUE OF THE RUBLE
RECOVERED SLIGHTLY FROM ITS PRECIPITOUS DROP OF RECENT DAYS.
THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET CLOSED UP FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, ERASING A BIG PART OF THE PAST MONTH'S LOSSES.
ANOTHER FACTOR AFFECTING INVESTOR CONFIDENCE WAS NEWS THE WORLD'S
LEADING INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS ARE DISCUSSING NEW AID TO RUSSIA.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE CONCERN IN THE U-S PRESS
ABOUT THE UNDERPINNINGS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND WHAT AN
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE MIGHT LEAD TO IN THE POLITICAL ARENA. WE ARE
JOINED NOW BY ___________________WHO HAS A SAMPLING OF COMMENT IN
TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: REPORTS AT MIDWEEK SAID A SPECIAL TREASURY BILL AUCTION
HELD WEDNESDAY SOLD WELL, PROVIDING QUICK CASH FOR THE
REVENUE-STRAPPED KREMLIN. PUBLICLY, THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HAS
DENIED SEEKING ANY NEW LOANS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
BUT PUBLISHED REPORTS IN RUSSIA SAY OFFICIALS MAY ASK FOR A LARGE
PACKAGE OF EMERGENCY FINANCIAL CREDITS TO HELP STABILIZE THE
RUBLE, WHOSE VALUE PLUMMETED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
THE U-S PRESS IS WATCHING WITH CONCERN, AND WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING
ON LONG ISLAND, WHERE "NEWSDAY" SAYS IN A HEADLINE: "DON'T LET
RUSSIA'S ECONOMY COLLAPSE; IT COULD BRING ANTIDEMOCRATIC FORCES
TO THE FORE.
VOICE: PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON IS TAKING THE INITIATIVE TO
MUSTER AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL-AID PACKAGE TO PULL
RUSSIA BACK FROM THE BRINK OF A POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
DISASTER. BUT SO FAR, HE'S TALKING TOO LITTLE MONEY.
IT WILL TAKE A RESERVE FUND OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, NOT
JUST MILLIONS, IF THE EFFORT IS GONG TO SUCCEED. .....
HELPING RUSSIA OUT OF ITS CURRENCY CRISIS ISN'T
OPTIONAL. IT'S EVEN MORE NECESSARY THAN THE BAILOUTS OF
MEXICO OR SOUTH KOREA. THE FAILURE OF RUSSIA'S ECONOMY
COULD BRING TO POWER NEW LEADERS LESS WELL DISPOSED
TOWARD DEMOCRACY AND MORE HOSTILE TO THE WEST.
TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" TALKS ABOUT THE CLIMATE OF FEAR
RATHER THAN REASON THAT IS DRIVING INVESTORS ACTIONS REGARDING
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY.
VOICE: YOU KNOW YOU ARE ON NEW ECONOMIC TERRAIN WHEN THE WHITE
HOUSE DECIDES TO RUSH OUT A PRONOUNCEMENT ON RUSSIA ON A
SUNDAY, NOT BECAUSE OF SOME IMPENDING RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT
ACTION BUT IN HOPES OF INFLUENCING FINANCIAL MARKETS TO
BE MORE INCLINED TO LEND MONEY TO THE MOSCOW GOVERNMENT.
..... PANICKED INVESTORS ARE NOT INCLINED TO BE
REASSURED BY VAGUE PROMISES OF SUPPORT, SUCH AS THE
WHITE HOUSE OFFERED WHEN IT SAID THE UNITED STATES WOULD
BACK 'ADDITIONAL CONDITIONAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, AS NECESSARY, TO
PROMOTE STABILITY AND STRUCTURAL REFORM IN RUSSIA.'
...THE PRESIDENT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTERNATIONAL
POLICY OF DELAYING A LARGE BAILOUT UNTIL THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF REAL REFORM. IN PLAIN LANGUAGE, THE UNITED
STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND WANT RUSSIA'S
GOVERNMENT TO PROVE THAT IT CAN COLLECT REVENUES EVEN
BEFORE THE BADLY NEEDED REFORM OF THE TAX CODE MAKES ITS
WAY THROUGH THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT.
TEXT: MAINE'S "PORTLAND PRESS HERALD" REMAINS SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL, NOTING THAT THINGS ARE N O T GOING TO GET
FUNDAMENTALLY BETTER UNTIL BORIS YELTSIN FINDS A WAY TO COLLECT
THE COUNTRY'S WOEFULLY UNDERPAID INCOME TAXES.
VOICE: ACCORDING TO A RECENT REPORT, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
ACTUALLY GREW ZERO-POINT-EIGHT PERCENT LAST YEAR. WHILE
THAT'S NOT SPECTACULAR, IT'S A LONG WAY FROM
RECESSIONARY STATUS. INFLATION, MEANWHILE, IS STAYING
AT SINGLE-DIGIT LEVELS, A LONG WAY BELOW WHAT HAPPENED
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION IN
1991. STILL .... THE TAX SITUATION HAS NOT IMPROVED,
ONLY WORSENED, ESPECIALLY IN RECENT MONTHS,' RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN SAID IN A NATIONALLY BROADCAST
SPEECH ON THE CRISIS. ..... RUSSIA'S FUTURE CAN BE
BRIGHT WITH THE RIGHT POLICIES AND PENALTIES IN PLACE.
THEY [THE GOVERNMENT] SHOULD AIM AT LESSENING THE AMOUNT
SKIMMED OFF THE TOP, BOTH BY OUTRIGHT CRIMINALS AND BY
TOO MANY OTHERS WHO ARE MERELY TEMPTED BEYOND THEIR
ABILITY TO RESIST BY THE INEFFICIENCY OF A TAX CODE
WITHOUT ANY TEETH [ENFORCEMENT POWERS].
TEXT: IN THE NATION'S CAPITOL, "THE WASHINGTON POST" ALSO
WATCHES WITH RESTRAINED ALARM, AND SUGGESTS THAT, ON BALANCE, AND
DESPITE RUSSIA'S SEVEN-YEAR FAILURE TO FULLY IMPLEMENT MEANINGFUL
ECONOMIC REFORM, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL AID SHOULD BE SENT.
VOICE: THE MOST PERSUASIVE ARGUMENT FOR ADDITIONAL AID NOW IS
THAT RUSSIA'S NEW PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ARGUABLY
THE MOST PRO-REFORM EVER, SHOULD BE GIVEN A CHANCE. BUT
IF THE I-M-F [INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND] OR THE GROUP
OF SEVEN COME UP WITH ADDITIONAL LOANS, THEY MUST MAKE
CLEAR THAT THE AID IS NEITHER OPEN-ENDED NOR
UNCONDITIONAL. AS LONG AS RUSSIA KNOWS THAT THE WEST
CONSIDERS IT TOO BIG TO FAIL, ITS GOVERNMENT WON'T TAKE
THE PAINFUL STEPS NECESSARY TO SUCCEED.
TEXT: TAKING THE OPPOSITE SIDE IS "THE NEW YORK POST" WHICH SAYS
THE MORE YOU BAIL OUT FALTERING ECONOMIES, THE MORE YOU ENCOURAGE
THEM NOT TO REFORM.
VOICE: SURE, THE RUSSIAN CURRENCY SEEMS .... ABOUT TO GO INTO
FREE FALL, BUT POURING GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD WILL ONLY
DELAY THE INEVITABLE - - AND MAKE THE WORLD'S FINANCIAL
SYSTEM EVEN MORE VULNERABLE. .... THE PROBLEM IS ONE OF
'MORAL HAZARD.' .... IF EVERY ECONOMICALLY CHALLENGED
COUNTRY ASSUMES THAT IT WILL BE BAILED OUT BY
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS WORRIED ABOUT A WORLDWIDE
DOMINO EFFECT, THEN IT WILL CONTINUE TO BEHAVE
IRRESPONSIBLY.
TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF EDITORIAL
COMMENT ON THE LATEST FINANCIAL CRISIS IN RUSSIA.
NEB/ANG/KL
03-Jun-98 2:25 PM EDT (1825 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
