DATE=5/7/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40298
TITLE=THE NUCLEAR DANGER
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE COLD WAR IS OVER, BUT ITS WEAPONS REMAIN. AND IN
SOME WAYS THEY MAY BE MORE DANGEROUS THAN EVER. WITH THE
COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION, MOSCOW NOW HAS LESS CONTROL OVER
ITS OWN NUCLEAR ARSENAL AND MATERIALS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FORMER
SOVIET REPUBLICS. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS ON THE CONCERNS OF
BOTH AMERICAN AND RUSSIAN ANALYSTS.
TEXT: ABOUT ONE-THOUSAND-200 TONS OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM AND
NEARLY TWO-HUNDRED TONS OF PLUTONIUM ARE SPREAD ACROSS AN
ESTIMATED FIFTY SITES IN RUSSIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER
SOVIET UNION. AS NUCLEAR WARHEADS CONTINUE TO BE DISMANTLED,
THEY ADD TO THE STOCKPILE.
THESE ARE TEMPTING, AND IN SOME CASES VULNERABLE TARGETS, FOR
SMUGGLERS AND TERRORISTS IN SEARCH OF VAST RICHES OR LETHAL
POWER. BUT DISPOSING OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL IS NO EASY MATTER, AS
DEMONSTRATED BY A RECENT EFFORT IN GEORGIA.
WHEN A NUCLEAR REACTOR NEAR TBILISI WAS SHUT DOWN SEVERAL YEARS
AGO, GEORGIANS LOOKED FOR SOMEONE TO TAKE ITS RADIOACTIVE FUEL.
RUSSIA WAS RELUCTANT. SO WAS THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE,
ROVING GANGS IN AN UNSTABLE GEORGIA STRAYED PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO
THE ABANDONED REACTOR, AND THERE WERE REPORTS OF FOREIGN
INTRIGUERS ARRIVING.
AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF SECRET NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE BRITISH, THE
UNITED STATES FINALLY FLEW THE SHUNNED MATERIAL TO A SITE IN
SCOTLAND. THIS SPARKED OUTRAGE FROM MANY SCOTS WHO OBJECTED TO
THE SECRECY MORE THAN HAVING TO STORE ANOTHER TWO DRUMS OF
NUCLEAR WASTE. A SENIOR U-S OFFICIAL TOLD THE NEW YORK TIMES
THIS WAS WHAT HE CALLED "A SUCCESSFUL EXAMPLE OF MULTILATERAL
DIPLOMACY."
MEANWHILE, NUCLEAR FUEL REMAINS IN AN EVEN MORE DANGEROUS
LOCATION: IN GEORGIA'S BREAKAWAY REGION OF ABKHAZIA. THE THREAT
IS SIGNIFICANT, BUT NOT APOCALYPTIC, SAYS SCOTT PARISH, A SENIOR
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE AT THE CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES AT
THE MONTEREY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES:
// PARISH ACT //
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CONFIRMED CASES OF SMUGGLING OF
FISSILE (FISSIONABLE) MATERIALS OUT OF THE FORMER SOVIET
UNION SINCE DECEMBER 1994. IT SUGGESTS EITHER THAT
THERE IS NO MORE SMUGGLING GOING ON, THAT THESE VARIOUS
PROGRAMS THAT HAVE BEGUN HAVE EFFECTIVELY CONTAINED THE
THREAT. OR IT SUGGESTS THAT THE SMUGGLERS HAVE GOTTEN A
LOT SMARTER.
// END ACT //
NIKOLAI SOKOV, A MEMBER OF THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY WHO IS IS
TEMPORARILY AT MONTEREY, SAYS NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN RUSSIA UNDER
MILITARY CONTROL ARE SAFE; THOSE UNDER CIVILIAN LESS SO. BUT HE
BELIEVES THE DANGER IS RECEDING FOR TWO REASONS:
// SOKOV ACT //
FIRST OF ALL, THE NUNN-LUGAR PROGRAM, WHICH HELPED US IN
SECURING FISSILE MATERIALS IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION,
INCLUDING RUSSIA, AND I THINK THIS PROGRAM RECEIVES
UNQUALIFIED SUPPORT IN RUSSIA AND IS WORTH CONTINUING.
SECOND, RUSSIA IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE AND MORE A NORMAL
STATE, INCREASING THE LEVEL OF COMPLIANCE WITH LAWS AND
REGULATIONS. SO THESE TWO COMBINED WILL HELP DECREASE
THE DANGER OF UNAUTHORIZED LEAKAGE OF FISSILE MATERIALS.
// END ACT //
EVEN IF RUSSIA AND ITS NEIGHBORS ARE DOING A BETTER JOB SECURING
ITS NUCLEAR MATERIALS -- THE UNAUTHORIZED TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY
REMAINS A PROBLEM. SCIENTISTS -- ONCE THE SOVIET UNION'S
PRIVILEGED ELITE -- ARE DISGRUNTLED. MANY HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS
AND MIGHT BE TEMPTED BY OFFERS FROM STATES IN SEARCH OF NUCLEAR
WEAPONS. RUSSIA ONCE INTERCEPTED A PLANE WITH NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS
HEADING FOR NORTH KOREA.
BUT MR. PARISH SAYS MANY RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS WOULD PATRIOTICALLY
RESIST ARMING POSSIBLE ENEMIES AND THERE ARE ALSO OTHER PRACTICAL
CONSIDERATIONS:
// PARISH ACT //
MANY OF THESE TYPES OF SCIENTISTS SAY, "THE LIBYANS OR
THE IRAQIS OR THE IRANIANS MIGHT PROMISE TO PAY ME A
LOT. BUT WOULD THEY REALLY PAY ME? AND ONCE I GAVE THEM
INFORMATION, WOULDN'T THEY HAVE THE MOTIVATION MAYBE TO
KILL ME IN ORDER TO COVER UP THE FACT THAT THEY HAD
GOTTEN THIS SORT OF INFORMATION FROM ME? SO MAYBE IT IS
NOT SUCH A GOOD IDEA FOR ME TO THINK ABOUT THAT."
// END ACT //
THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA ARE AT ODDS OVER ONE NUCLEAR
TRANSFER. THE UNITED STATES OBJECTS TO RUSSIA'S SALE OF NUCLEAR
REACTORS TO IRAN THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAPONS PROGRAM.
RUSSIA, IN TURN, DENIES IRAN HAS SUCH A PROGRAM. MR. SOKOV SAYS
RUSSIA HAS AN URGENT NEED FOR SUCH BUSINESS DEALS, BUT
ACKNOWLEDGES THE TRANSACTION SHOULD BE MORE OPEN TO INTERNATIONAL
SCRUTINY. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/JO
07-May-98 4:32 PM EDT (2032 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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