DATE=12/3/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38279
TITLE=YEARENDER-97: RUSSIA SINCE USSR DISSOLUTION
BYLINE=FRANK RONALDS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
///// ED'S: THE USSR WAS DISSOLVED SIX YEARS AGO THIS MONTH.
THIS BACKGROUNDER REVIEWS THE MAJOR POLITICAL EVENTS IN RUSSIA
SINCE THEN; OTHER SCRIPTS WILL COVER ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENTS. MAY BE USED ANYTIME THIS MONTH. /////
INTRO: SIX-YEARS AGO THE SOVIET UNION WAS EFFECTIVELY DISSOLVED.
THE GIANT RED SOVIET FLAG ATOP THE KREMLIN WAS REPLACED BY THE
WHITE, RED AND BLUE FLAG OF PRE-REVOLUTIONARY RUSSIA. WITH A
REVIEW OF POLITICAL EVENTS IN RUSSIA SINCE THEN, HERE IS FRANK
RONALDS.
TEXT. WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION, MIKHAIL GORBACHEV,
WHO HAD STARTED THE REFORM MOVEMENT, LOST HIS POSITION AND HIS
POWER. BUT THE KEY PROBLEM FACING MR. GORBACHEV STILL FACED
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN: RESISTANCE TO REFORM BY THE
NOMENKLATURA -- THE ENTRENCHED BUREAUCRACY THAT CONTROLLED
AGRICULTURE AND THE IMMENSE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. IT
RETAINED A MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATURE.
IN DECEMBER, 1992, PARLIAMENT FORCED OUT ACTING PRIME MINISTER
YEGOR GAIDAR, WHO HAD LAUNCHED A RADICAL MARKET REFORM. IN HIS
PLACE, PRESIDENT YELTSIN PROPOSED, AND PARLIAMENT APPROVED,
VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN, FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE NATURAL GAS MONOPOLY
-- GAZPROM. CONTRARY TO EXPECTATIONS, PRIME MINISTER
CHERNOMYRDIN CARRIED FORTH THE PRIVATIZATION OF STATE-OWNED
COMPANIES AND ENCOURAGED THE CREATION OF ENTREPRENEURIAL
ENTERPRISES. BUT PRODUCTION, AND LIVING STANDARDS FOR MOST
PEOPLE, CONTINUED TO PLUMMET.
AS YELTSIN CHARGED IN MARCH 1993, THE LEGISLATURE, A HOLDOVER
FROM THE COMMUNIST PAST, CONTINUED TO RESIST REFORMS PROPOSED BY
THE GOVERNMENT.
// 1ST YELTSIN ACT -- IN RUSSIAN AND FADE //
IT IS QUITE CLEAR TODAY: THE ROOT OF ALL PROBLEMS LIES
NOT IN A CONFLICT BETWEEN THE LEGISLATIVE AND EXECUTIVE
BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT; NOT IN THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE
PARLIAMENT AND THE PRESIDENT. ITS ESSENCE LIES DEEPER:
IN THE PROFOUND CONTRADICTION BETWEEN THE PEOPLE AND THE
FORMER BOLSHEVIST ANTI-DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM, WHICH HAD NOT
YET FULLY DISINTEGRATED AND WHICH IS SEEKING TODAY TO
RECAPTURE ITS LOST CONTROL OF RUSSIA.
// END ACT //
THAT FALL, A GROUP CALLING FOR OPEN REBELLION AND THE RESTORATION
OF THE SOVIET UNION SEIZED THE PARLIAMENT BUILDING. A TWO-WEEK
STRUGGLE ENDED WHEN TROOPS FIRED ON PARLIAMENT AND LEFT IT A
BURNT-OUT SHELL. THE ACTION BROUGHT MUCH CRITICISM, BUT ALSO
SUPPORT FROM LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD.
KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV READ OUT A MESSAGE ON
BEHALF OF SIX NATIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES,
PLEDGING THEIR FULL SUPPORT.
// IST NAZARBAYEV ACT -- IN RUSSIAN AND FADE //
ANTI-DEMOCRATIC FORCES HAVE ATTEMPTED TO CARRY OUT A
PUTSCH, AS THEY REPEATEDLY WARNED THEY WOULD...
// END ACT //
ELECTIONS FOR A NEW RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT AND A NEW CONSTITUTION
WERE HELD DECEMBER 12TH 1993. THE RESULTS OF THE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS WERE A SHOCK TO THE YELTSIN ADMINISTRATION AND TO
FOREIGN OBSERVERS.
COMMUNISTS AND EXTREME NATIONALISTS WON A MAJORITY. BUT THE NEW
CONSTITUTION, OVERWHELMINGLY APPROVED, GAVE THE PRESIDENT GREATER
POWERS. HE VOWED TO CONTINUE HIS REFORM PROGRAM. MOST LARGE
INDUSTRIES WERE PRIVATIZED AND A NEW MIDDLE CLASS DEVELOPED AS
MILLIONS OF SMALL ENTERPRISES WERE FORMED.
ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL FIGURES CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINING PRODUCTION,
MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE AVERAGE REAL INCOMES ARE 40 TO 50-PERCENT
HIGHER THAN REPORTED BY OFFICIAL STATISTICS, BECAUSE THE NEW
ENTREPRENEURS AVOID TAXES BY FAILING TO DECLARE PROFITS.
ALTHOUGH REVENUES WERE, AND REMAIN, INADEQUATE, THE RATE OF
INFLATION WAS GRADUALLY BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL.
BUT THE YELSTIN ADMINISTRATION MADE A SERIOUS MISTAKE. SECURITY
AND MILITARY FORCES MOVED INTO CHECHNYA, A PROVINCE ONE-THOUSAND
MILES SOUTH OF MOSCOW WHICH HAD IGNORED CENTRAL AUTHORITIES SINCE
THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION. VAST OIL RESERVES WERE BEING
DEVELOPED IN THE CASPIAN SEA AREA, AND A KEY PIPELINE FROM THE
CAUCASUS RAN DIRECTLY THROUGH CHECHNYA. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS
MOSCOW'S PRIME MOTIVE FOR INVADING CHECHNYA IN DECEMBER OF 1994,
THE RESULT WAS A DISASTER.
WORLD LEADERS GENERALLY AGREED CHECHNYA WAS AN INTEGRAL PART OF
RUSSIA, BUT DENOUNCED THE WHOLESALE SLAUGHTER OF MEN WOMEN AND
CHILDREN. BORIS YELSTIN ADMITTED TO THE DISASTROUS RESULTS.
// 2ND YELTSIN ACT -- IN RUSSIAN AND FADE //
WE HOPED THAT OUR ARMED FORCES AND INTERIOR TROOPS WERE
STRONGER AND MORE EXPERIENCED, THAT THEIR COMBAT
READINESS WAS HIGHER. THEIR FAILURES, SETBACKS, AND
MISTAKES OF THE COMMAND ARE A PAINFUL BLOW TO OUR
PATRIOTIC AND CIVIC FEELINGS, TO THE DIGNITY OF
RUSSIANS. OUR STATE TURNED OUT TO BE UNPREPARED FOR THE
EFFICIENT USE OF POWER. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
LOSSES. THIS IS THE ROOT OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS IN
THE COURSE OF COMBAT ACTIVITIES.
// END ACT //
THE WAR DRAGGED ON THROUGHOUT THE YEAR AND WAS A FACTOR IN THE
DEFEAT OF POLITICAL FACTIONS SUPPORTING THE PRESIDENT IN THE
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS OF DECEMBER, 1995. NEW PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS HAD BEEN CALLED FOR JUNE OF 1996, AND BORIS YETLSIN'S
CHANCES LOOKED VERY DIM. TO ADD TO HIS WOES, HE HAD SUFFERED TWO
HEART ATTACKS DURING 1995.
WHEN HE ANNOUNCED IN FEBRUARY HE WOULD RUN FOR RE-ELECTION,
RUSSIAN POLLS PUT HIM IN FOURTH OR FIFTH PLACE. BUT THE
65-YEAR-OLD PRESIDENT, WHO HAD SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE SHOWN HIS
ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM SEEMINGLY HOPELESS SITUATIONS, TURNED
INTO A DYNAMO AS HIS CAMPAIGN DEVELOPED. IN THE FIRST ROUND OF
VOTING, HE CAME IN FIRST, AHEAD OF THE COMMUNIST CANDIDATE, AND
THEN OFFERED A CABINET POST TO GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED, WHO CAME
IN THIRD.
YELTSIN'S AMERICAN BIOGRAPHER, LEON ARON, SAYS THE FINAL RESULT
OF THE ELECTION ON JULY 3RD OF LAST YEAR VINDICATED HIM ONCE
AGAIN, AND VIRTUALLY ENDED THE POWER OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY AS A
MASS MOVEMENT.
// IST ARON ACT //
THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTIONS WERE BOTH A PERSONAL
TRIUMPH FOR BORIS YELTSIN AND A VERY BIG HISTORIC STEP
FOR THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE. HE WAS BARELY IN SINGLE DIGITS,
OR MAYBE LOW TEENS, IN JANUARY. HE SHOT UP ALL THE WAY
TO 54-PERCENT. THAT WAS DUE TO A VERY SKILLFUL MESSAGE:
'CHOOSE ME, OR RETURN TO THE PAST; PROTECT LIBERTY AND
DEMOCRACY. AS FAR AS THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED,
THIS WAS A BELATED REFERENDUM ON THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL
AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM.
// END ACT //
GENERAL LEBED BROUGHT ABOUT A TRUCE IN THE CHECHEN WAR ON AUGUST
31ST. BUT THE GENERAL'S POPULARITY DID NOT SUIT MR. YELTSIN, WHO
FIRED HIM IN SEPTEMBER.
LATE LAST YEAR, THE PRESIDENT UNDERWENT QUADRUPLE BYPASS HEART
SURGERY, FROM WHICH HE EMERGED SUCCESSFULLY. HE NOW APPEARS TO
BE VERY MUCH IN CHARGE. TO STRENGTHEN THE FORCES FOR REFORM, HE
HAS NAMED TWO FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS. ANATOLY CHUBAIS, WHO
CARRIED OUT THE RAPID PRIVATIZATION OF INDUSTRY AND LATER
MASTERMINDED YELTSIN'S CAMPAIGN FOR THE PRESIDENCY -- AND BORIS
NEMTSOV, FORMER GOVERNOR OF THE PROVINCE OF NYZHNY NOVGOROD,
WHICH UNDER HIS LEADERSHIP MADE REMARKABLE ECONOMIC PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE RECENT FINANCIAL TURMOIL IN EAST ASIA HAS INDIRECTLY
LED TO CAPITAL FLIGHT FROM RUSSIA, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE
ECONOMY APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY STRONG.
LEON ARON BELIEVES BORIS YELTSIN, ALONG WITH MIKHAIL GORBACHEV,
HAS PLAYED A MOMENTOUS ROLE ON THE WORLD STAGE.
// 2ND ARON ACT //
WITH MIKHAIL GORBACHEV, HE UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE COUNTED
AS A FOUNDING FATHER OF RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY. GORBACHEV
PLAYED AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AND BENIGN ROLE IN
UNDERMINING COMMUNISM. YELTSIN CONTINUED BY BUILDING
THE RUDIMENTS OF DEMOCRACY AND TAKING RUSSIA THROUGH A
NUMBER OF EXERCISES IN DEMOCRACY: INSTITUTIONALIZING A
FREE PRESS, FREE POLITICAL ACTIVITY, POLITICAL PARTIES,
THE PARLIAMENT AND CONSTITUTION AND THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS. SO BOTH YELTSIN AND GORBACHEV ARE ASSURED
THEIR PLACES IN HISTORY.
// END ACT //
DESPITE ITS CONTINUING DIFFICULTIES, RUSSIA HAS COME A LONG WAY
SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION SIX-YEARS AGO. (SIGNED)
NEB/RAE
03-Dec-97 1:32 PM EST (1832 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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