DATE=12/22/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38504
TITLE=YEARENDER: RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY '97
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: RUSSIA MADE GREAT STRIDES IN DIPLOMACY DURING THE PAST
YEAR, PATCHING UP OUTSTANDING BILATERAL DISPUTES, WINNING
MEMBERSHIP IN IMPORTANT INTERNATIONAL BODIES, AND EVEN PLAYING A
DECISIVE ROLE IN EASING TENSIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS AND
IRAQ. BUT AS V-O-A MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN REPORTS,
RUSSIA'S FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGISTS STILL ARE STRUGGLING TO
ESTABLISH A POST-SOVIET IDENTITY.
TEXT: FROM THE BEGINNING, 1997 LOOKED LIKE A TOUGH YEAR FOR
RUSSIA. PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN WAS ILL, AND THE COUNTRY'S
DIPLOMATS WERE DESPERATELY TRYING TO PREVENT THE INEVITABLE --
THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF NATO.
BUT AT AN END-OF-YEAR NEWS CONFERENCE, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE
FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE IN RUSSIA'S PARLIAMENT, VLADIMIR LUKIN
CALLED IT A BREAK-EVEN YEAR.
/// LUKIN ACT - RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER VOICE OVER ///
ON THE WHOLE, THE RESULTS OF THIS YEAR HAVE BEEN FIFTY-FIFTY. WE
HAVE ACCOMPLISHED SOME THINGS, BUT IN MANY IMPORTANT DIRECTIONS,
WE HAVE FAILED TO ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING.
/// END ACT ///
MANY OF THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS WERE THE RESULT OF PRESIDENT
YELTSIN'S PERSONAL DIPLOMACY. THE RUSSIAN LEADER REMAINED HEALTHY
MOST OF THE YEAR, AND KEPT UP A HECTIC SCHEDULE OF FOREIGN
TRAVELS.
BUT THERE WAS A DOWN-SIDE TO MR. YELTSIN'S HIGH-PROFILE
DIPLOMATIC FORAYS. HE SOMETIMES MISSPOKE. AT A NATO SUMMIT IN
PARIS, AND LATER DURING A VISIT TO SWEDEN, HE SURPRISED EVEN HIS
OWN STAFF WITH IMPROMPTU DECLARATIONS ON NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT.
IN BOTH CASES, THE STATEMENTS PROVED TO BE INACCURATE. AFTER THE
STOCKHOLM COMMENT, SPOKESMAN SERGEI YASTRZHEMBSKY SUGGESTED THE
PRESIDENT WAS SIMPLY TIRED.
SOME WESTERN DIPLOMATS, HOWEVER, SAY MR. YELTSIN'S BLUNDERS MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT. SUCH DRAMATIC GESTURES HELP TO
SOFTEN RUSSIA'S TRADITIONALLY CONFRONTATIONAL IMAGE. MOREOVER,
ANALYSTS POINT OUT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF TRUTH IN WHAT
THE RUSSIAN LEADER SAYS, SINCE HE IS THE ULTIMATE FOREIGN POLICY
DECISION-MAKER.
BUT VICTOR KREMENYUK OF MOSCOW'S PRESTIGIOUS U-S-A / CANADA
INSTITUTE SAYS MR. YELTSIN'S IMPROMPTU REMARKS GIVE AN IMPRESSION
OF CONFUSION IN THE KREMLIN.
/// KREMENYUK ACT ///
LIKE FOR EXAMPLE HIS STATEMENT IN STOCKHOLM ABOUT
UNILATERAL CUTS IN STRATEGIC FORCES AND CONVENTIONAL
FORCES. EVIDENTLY THAT WAS AIMED AT HIS AUDIENCE IN
STOCKHOLM, BUT AT THE SAME TIME LEAVING THE IMPRESSION
THAT IN SUCH JUMPS OR LEAPS, HE DOES NOT ALWAYS
CONSIDER REAL POSSIBILITIES OR THAT THE REPORTS HE
RECEIVES FROM HIS PEOPLE ARE WRONG.
/// END ACT ///
STILL, THERE IS A BROAD CONSENSUS MR. YELTSIN'S TRAVELS HAVE BEEN
OVERWHELMINGLY SUCCESSFUL. FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN
LUKIN SAYS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RESULT WAS IMPROVED TIES WITH
EASTERN NEIGHBORS CHINA AND JAPAN.
/// 2ND LUKIN ACT - RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER VOICEOVER ///
I CAN SAY THE MAIN PLUS HAS BEEN OUR RELATIONS WITH
COUNTRIES OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION. WE HAVE
ACCOMPLISHED A STRATEGIC BREAKTHROUGH BY CONCLUDING A
TREATY WITH CHINA ON DEMARCATION OF THE BORDER.
/// END ACT ///
RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY ALSO WORKED HARD TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH
FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS. IN A BIG STEP TOWARD ENDING YEARS OF
MISTRUST WITH UKRAINE, PRESIDENT YELTSIN MADE A MUCH-DELAYED TRIP
TO KIEV TO SIGN A TREATY ON CONTROL OF THE BLACK SEA FLEET.
MR. YELTSIN ALSO FORMALIZED A DEAL WITH BELARUSSIAN PRESIDENT
ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO ESTABLISHING A LOOSE UNION BETWEEN MOSCOW
AND MINSK.
/// OPT /// BUT FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN LUKIN
CALLED THE ACCORD WITH THE AUTHORITARIAN BELARUS LEADER A
MISTAKE.
/// OPT // 3RD LUKIN ACT - IN RUSSIAN -- FADE UNDER VOICE OVER
///
THE PROBLEM OF BELARUS IS A HEADACHE TO US ALL
REGARDLESS OF POLITICAL AFFILIATIONS BECAUSE WE ALL
SENSE SOME IMPROPER THINGS ARE GOING ON THERE.
/// END ACT // END OPT ///
DIPLOMATIC OBSERVERS SAY MR. YELTSIN'S WIDE-RANGING INITIATIVES
HIGHLIGHT A DIFFICULT CHOICE FACING MOSCOW'S FOREIGN POLICY
STRATEGISTS. SHOULD RUSSIA'S TOP PRIORITY BE BETTER TIES WITH
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, OR SHOULD IT ATTEMPT TO STRIKE AN
INDEPENDENT COURSE AS A WORLD LEADER.
VICTOR KREMENYUK OF THE U-S-A CANADA INSTITUTE SAYS THE KREMLIN
LACKS A CLEARLY ARTICULATED GLOBAL STRATEGY.
/// 2ND KREMENYUK ACT ///
RUSSIA STILL HAS NO FOREIGN POLICY GOALS. THAT STILL
IS SOMETHING ONLY IN THE FUTURE. SO FAR, WHAT RUSSIA
HAS IS EITHER REMNANTS OF THE SOVIET EMPIRE AND REMNANTS
OF SOVIET OBLIGATIONS OR COMMITMENTS, OR THE NEWLY
CREATED PROBLEMS WHICH ARE NOT YET SOLVED.
/// END ACT ///
AMONG THOSE REMNANTS OF THE SOVIET EMPIRE IS RUSSIA'S CLOSE TIES
WITH PARIAH GOVERNMENTS SUCH AS IRAQ, AND IN PARTICULAR RUSSIAN
FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV'S LONG FRIENDSHIP WITH IRAQI
LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN.
THAT CONNECTION GAVE RUSSIA AN OPPORTUNITY DURING THE YEAR TO
MEDIATE THE DISPUTE BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE UNITED NATIONS.
WESTERN DIPLOMATS CREDIT MOSCOW WITH PLAYING A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE
IN AVERTING A MILITARY CONFRONTATION. BUT FOREIGN AFFAIRS
COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN LUKIN SAYS SUCH INVOLVEMENT CARRIES WITH IT
ADDITIONAL RESPONSIBILITIES.
/// 4TH LUKIN ACT - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER VOICE OVER ///
DURING THE LATEST CRISIS WITH IRAQ, RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY
WAS QUICK TO DERIVE THE MAXIMUM IT COULD FROM THE
CRISIS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS
REMAIN WHETHER WE HAVE MANAGED TO PREVENT A MILITARY
CONFLICT.
/// END ACT ///
AND ON WHAT BEGAN THE YEAR AS RUSSIA'S MAJOR FOREIGN POLICY
CHALLENGE, NATO EXPANSION, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE OUTCOME
WAS GENERALLY POSITIVE. THE NATO-RUSSIA FOUNDING ACT SIGNED IN
PARIS WAS CONSIDERED A KEY STEP FORWARD IN SETTING A NEW
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FORMER COLD WAR ADVERSARIES..
ALL IN ALL, AS VLADIMIR LUKIN EXPRESSED IT, THE YEAR ENDED
FIFTY-FIFTY. ANOTHER OBSERVER, A WESTERN DIPLOMAT, PREFERRED TO
USE THE ANALOGY OF A CARD GAME. HE SAID "RUSSIA MADE THE BEST OF
A BAD HAND." (SIGNED)
NEB/PFH/JWH
22-Dec-97 5:34 AM EST (1034 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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