RUSSIA: YELTSIN RETURNS; MOSCOW WOOS CHINA AND IRAN
(Foreign Media Reaction Daily Digest)
President Yeltsin's return to office Dec. 23 following
heart surgery and Russia's push to forge new links with
China and Iran in the past few weeks captured the interest
of analysts around the globe. They saw in these
developments an attempt by Moscow, Beijing and Tehran to
create a "club of nations" to counterbalance U.S.
"hegemony" and, for Mr. Yeltsin himself, a new opportunity
to build "a real democracy and a liberal market economy" in
Russia. Journalists divided, though, on whether Mr.
Yeltsin would succeed in these tasks and in curbing the
excesses of "the new, profit-oriented elite."
The media in Russia, China and Iran made no secret of their
countries' eagerness to band together to restore a
"multipolar" world and avert what Moscow's centrist, army
Krasnaya Zvezda dubbed "the danger of universal
subservience to a global monarch's will." Several Moscow
publications and their counterparts in other countries
judged that Chinese Premier Li Peng's visit to Moscow Dec.
26-28 and Russian Foreign Minister Primakov's sortie to
Tehran a few days earlier were warnings to the West and
NATO. Reformist weekly Moskovskiye Novosti noted, "As for
Moscow starting to woo Tehran and Beijing, this depends on
the West: Such contacts will become possible, if NATO goes
ahead with its expansion plans." Not all Russian analysts,
however, were satisfied with the Kremlin's strategy:
Reformist Segodnya deplored the "reflex anti-Americanism,
which...has become a distinctive feature of (Russia's) new
policy." Reformist Izvestia poked fun at the muddled
signals sent by Defense Minister Rodionov's mention of
Iran, China, the U.S. and NATO as "potential external
threats" while President Yeltsin was meeting with the
Chinese premier: "Isn't that too many enemies for a country
in crisis, whose army's sorry plight is the talk of the
world?" Beijing's official Xinhua news agency emphasized
that "the development of a strategic partnership with
Russia is...a long-term policy of China," but carefully
insisted that this alliance "is not directed against any
other parties." Tehran's government controlled press,
however, was not at all reluctant to name the target of all
these diplomatic doings. Tehran radio asserted that the
Russia-China accord constituted "an alliance against the
united Western front" and radical Salam said improved links
with Moscow "could help Iran increase its capacity to
maneuver against the U.S."
Just as in Russia, pundits in other countries disagreed as
to the importance and strength of these newly formed ties.
Karachi's independent Dawn found the Sino-Russian
reconciliation "of particular significance," particularly
for Asia, while centrist Beeld of Johannesburg declared it
had "the potential to become the most important
international power shift of 1996." In Bangkok, the
independent Nation hoped that a Beijing-Moscow axis would
give ASEAN "more leverage" in its relations with
Washington. Editorialists in Germany, Italy, Belgium,
Spain and India were not as impressed by the potential, in
the words of right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin, of "the
Euro-Asian elephants' wedding to give NATO and the USA a
big fright." Right-of-center Newstime from Hyderabad
concluded, "If nothing else, both China and Russia need the
U.S. far more in economic terms than they need each other."
This survey is based on 65 reports from 18 countries, Dec.
11-Jan. 7
EDITOR: Mildred Sola Neely
EUROPE
RUSSIA: "Global Solidarity Needed To Avert Subservience
To U.S."
Vadim Markushin held in centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda
(1/6): "As things go, the world's political evolution may
follow the worst of scenarios, with U.S. policy
transforming into a diktat.... The new U.S.
administration, as its priorities show, is determined to
adjust and improve its leverage to secure its interests in
every strategic region. What can the rest of the world do
to meet that challenge? Some kind of global solidarity is
apparently needed to avert the danger of universal
subservience to a global monarch's will. Compared to any
alliances, pacts and memorandums, solidarity probably
suggests a bit more sensitivity and an appropriate reaction
to Washington's crude pressure."
"U.S. Out To Gain World Hegemony"
Centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda (1/6) ran this comment by
Gennady Obolensky: "The United States, no longer regarding
Russia as a partner, is out to gain world hegemony, global
strategic stability not among its top priorities any more.
Proof of that is the Pentagon's plans, which are at
variance with the ABM treaty, as well as its earlier
intentions regarding non-strategic ABM defenses.... Those
plans cannot but worry the world public, as they pose a
threat to global stability."
"Russia Must Promote Ties With Neighbors In East, South"
Nationalist, opposition Sovetskaya Rossiya (12/31) said in
this comment by Vasily Safronchuk: "The most effective way
to counter NATO's aggressive plans would be for Russia to
develop ties with neighbors in the East and the South and
restore her influence in the Persian Gulf and the Middle
East.... Time will show if the current regime has enough
resolve to resist Washington unceremoniously meddling in
Russia's relations with her neighbors."
"Our Reply To Solana"
Under this headline, reformist weekly Moskovskiye Novosti
(# 1, 12/31, 1997) published a comment by Denis Baranets:
"The growing number of agreements among Russia, China and
Iran on conventional arms and nuclear technologies creates
a sort of club of nations capable of altering the alignment
of forces in regional conflicts. That causes doubts about
the West having preponderance in arms.... As for Moscow
starting to woo Tehran and Beijing, this depends on the
West: Such contacts will become possible, if NATO goes
ahead with its expansion plans."
"Anti-Americanism: Feature Of Russian Policy"
Vladimir Abarinov and Leonid Velekhov, giving an overview
of Russian foreign policy in 1996, asserted in reformist
Segodnya (12/31): "Reflex anti-Americanism, which shows
invariably--no matter how insignificant the cause--has
become a distinctive feature of (Russia's) new policy....
Of this year's most memorable events in Russo-American
relations, endless spy scandals stand out the most....
Madeleine Albright, with her remarkable political
temperament and conviction in the U.S.'s right to global
leadership, will be a lot harder to deal with than the
cautious, conflict-fearing Christopher. Considering her
unpopularity in the Arab world and Primakov's special
relations with local leaders, the Middle East may become an
arena of an intensive Russo-American rivalry. Russia's
relations with NATO is a classic case of deja vu. Every
time NATO officials appear in public after meeting with
Primakov they look inspired--Chamberlain-style, their
radiant faces suggesting that Moscow all but agrees to the
expansion plans, but each time the Russian Foreign Ministry
restores the situation to a standstill."
"NATO Stimulates Russo-Chinese Rapprochement"
Dmitry Gornostayev held on page one of centrist
Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/29), "Obviously, Moscow has set its
heart on strategic partnership with Beijing.... NATO
expansion will most definitely prompt Russia to seek closer
ties with China."
"Alliance Impossible Soon"
Dmitry Chernogorsky opined in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta
(12/27): "Growing cooperation between Russia and China
might be seen by the West as a reaction to NATO expansion
and hence affect the global situation. So, there's
practically no chance of a political alliance between
Moscow and Beijing, not yet. But steadfastly working on
the idea of a strategic partnership is sure to bring Moscow
political and economic dividends in the long term."
"Rodionov Lists Russia's Internal, External Threats"
Yury Golotyuk wrote in reformist Segodnya (12/26):
"Addressing a conference in Moscow, Russian Defense
Minister Igor Rodionov urged a CIS military bloc and
explained that it was necessary to avoid internal strife
and repel external challenges.... Referring to potential
external threats, Rodionov mentioned Turkey, Iran,
Pakistan, Japan and China. But the chief threat, he
pointed out, came from the U.S.' attempting to enhance its
global leadership via NATO expansion eastward."
"Russia Can't Do Without Enemies"
Konstantin Eggert said in reformist Izvestia (12/27): "A
great power must have enemies. Otherwise, the world might
question its status.... The United States, NATO, Turkey,
Iran, Pakistan, Japan, China.... Isn't that too many
enemies for a country in a crisis, whose army's sorry
plight is the talk of the world? Who does the minister
suggest should finance confrontation with so many well-
trained adversaries?... This is more evidence that the
Russian army command is living in a world of its own,
detached from reality."
"Guess Who Hates Rapprochement With China?"
Commenting on the Rodionov remarks, Sergei Nikolayev
remarked in reformist Izvestia (12/29), "There is one
question...Rodionov evidently did not ask himself--who can
benefit by provoking complications and suspicions in
relations between (Russia and China)? It is they who hate
to see our rapprochement with China. Guess who?"
"Primakov Against Foreign Presence In Persian Gulf"
Under this headline, Vladimir Abarinov commented in
reformist Segodnya (12/24) on Russian Foreign Minister
Yevgeny Primakov's visit to Iran: "Primakov said that
Russian-Iranian relations were on the upgrade. He did not
hide that there was a lot of confidence between Moscow and
Tehran, stressing that Russian-Iranian relations were not
directed against the United States. His counterpart,
referring to Iran's position, stated that security in the
Persian Gulf was a job to be done by the countries of that
region. Both, obviously, implied U.S. military presence in
the Gulf area. As a matter of fact, countries in the
Persian Gulf believe the chief source of danger was Iran,
not the U.S. Navy, which is working day and night to ensure
the security of that region vital to the world's
economy.... Meanwhile, Russia is out for more arms
contracts with Iran. Its intentions, being at variance
with Russian-American top-level accords, are likely to dent
its prestige among countries in the Persian Gulf and bring
about more complications in Russian-American relations."
"Yeltsin Back At Work"
Tatyana Malkina said on page one of reformist Segodnya
(12/24): "The president's long absence from work may soon
be compensated for by a series of steps that will give
Russians, especially some of them, a lot to think about....
The social aspect of Russian reforms, evidently, will
become the linchpin of the Kremlin's policy for the next
couple of years."
"Wages, Pensions Come First"
Reformist Rossiyskiye Vesti (12/24) pointed out in a
comment by Pavel Anokhin and Lev Chernenko: "However
important international questions, the problems the
president is going to address first are of an immediate,
vital interest to people--wages and pensions."
"No Change"
Alexander Budberg lamented on page one of reformist, youth
Moskovskiy Komsomolets (12/24): "What is happening in the
Kremlin and the government shows that the president is not
going to give up the old methods, looking for checks and
balances among members of his palace guard. The 'divide
and rule' policy has always been favorite, be it in ancient
Rome or Communist Russia. It also helped Yeltsin retain
power before the election. After the election, it seemed
that the president, now backed by the majority of voters,
would risk replacing the many teams with one and forge
ahead with reform. It turns out, however, that he wanted a
strong and loyal team only for the duration of his illness.
Too bad."
"CIA Agents Less Active In Russia"
Igor Korotchenko, reporting on a press conference of the
chief of Russia's federal security service (FSB), Nikolai
Kovalyov, remarked in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/18):
"Curiously, General Kovalyov has contributed substantially
to the FSB's accomplishments this year. For instance,
there has been a sharp reduction in the activities of CIA
agents with diplomatic passports in Russia following his
personal meetings with the U.S. ambassador to Moscow."
"Civilian Attire For Minister: There's More To It Than
Meets The Eye"
Yury Golotyuk held in reformist Segodnya (12/17): "An end
to Defense Minister Igor Rodionov's military career has
more to it than just a formal ritual involving a change of
clothes. Changes in the chain of command of Russia's
strategic nuclear forces are going to be a whole lot more
serious.... That a civilian defense minister may have to
give up his 'nuclear briefcase' may become a basic change
in the customarily three-element conference communication
system."
"Russia May Have To Build Up Nuclear Forces"
Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/17) cited the commander of
Russia's strategic missile forces, General Igor Sergeyev,
as saying in an interview with Igor Korotchenko: "Depending
on the military and political situation in the world and
the condition of Russia's economy, the development of our
strategic missile forces, in the short term, can proceed
within the limits set by START I and START II, if ratified
by Russia, or under new START agreements. We also have to
consider the possibility of a global contingency. Russia
may have to build up its strategic forces on the basis of
the existing infrastructure, should the START and ABM
treaties be broken off and Russia's vital interests
threatened."
"Pseudo-Civilian Defense Minister"
Under this headline, reformist Segodnya (12/15) ran a
comment by Pavel Felgenhauer: "By
discharging Defense Minister Igor Rodionov from the
military service (and keeping him in office), Boris Yeltsin
finally redeemed his promise to give Russia a civilian
defense minister.... As he became a civilian person last
Wednesday, Rodionov joked, 'I have changed clothes, but am
none the better for this.' He is right, of course. He is
no economist and will hardly feel more comfortable with the
army's economic problems as a civilian. Retired, he has,
in effect, lost part of his authority in the army, without
having acquired any new qualities. Many army generals,
though, see a real need for a civilian defense minister who
will take care of the army's financial problems, while
leaving the military its due, combat training and troop
control. Having a civilian defense ministry and an army
general staff separated is becoming reality in Russia, as
in the West."
"Military Ready To Accept Civilian Control"
Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/15) front-paged this
comment by Vadim Solovyov: "Over the four years of its
existence, the Russian army has found that it can function
just as well under civilian control.... What matters,
however, is not who, a military or civilian person, will
head the defense ministry, but what functions this ministry
and its head are supposed to perform and in whose
interests, those of civilian society or the military....
In Russia's case, a transfer of a military defense minister
to civilian status will not solve the problem of a civilian
defense ministry, as such. We need a new legislative
concept of the civilian (political) responsibilities of a
defense ministry.... Formally, Rodionov's civilian status
has changed nothing. But the fact that the president has
decided to keep him around shows that he trusts him. It
attests also to Rodionov's enhanced position in the upper
echelons of power."
"There Was No Other Way To End War In Chechnya"
Ilya Maxakov stated on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya
Gazeta (12/11): "The actions of Chechen leaders working for
independence look logical and consistent, contrasting with
the ill-conceived policy of the Russian leadership, which
continues making conflicting moves and statements.... The
voices of the advocates of the Kremlin's latest decisions
on the Chechen settlement are clearly drowned out in the
chorus of critics of accords with Grozny. Mortifying as
seeing Russia fall apart may appear, one must admit that,
under the circumstances, there was no other way for Moscow
to end that war."
GERMANY: "The Dragon And The Bear Embrace"
Jens Hartmann commented under the headline above for page
one of right-of-center Die Welt (12/30) of Berlin, "After
months of maneuvering, it seems that Russia has finally
found an answer to NATO's decision to expand to the
East.... Russia will seek a strong ally to the East in
China. Moscow and Beijing want the Euro-Asian elephants'
wedding to give NATO and the USA a big fright.... The
rapprochement of the dragon and the bear is unusual,
following three decades of frozen relations and will
probably pose a difficult challenge for NATO
strategists.... Amid all the euphoria in Moscow over the
coup by Boris Yeltsin, who wants to create a new world
order in April in summit talks in Moscow with the Chinese
state and party leader, Jiang Zemin, nevertheless there are
still major question marks hanging over the project for the
next century. The fact that Russia is traditionally more
orientated towards the West and that Moscow and Beijing
represent totally different geopolitical interests is an
argument against the partnership being a success. Whether
the lowest common denominator of facing up to the United
States will be sufficient as the basis for a strategic
partnership is being viewed skeptically in Moscow too."
"An Alliance Spurred By Western Arrogance"
In an editorial, left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau
commented (12/30), "The visit of Chinese
Premier Li Peng to Moscow has symbolic value. Li is the
first visitor from abroad to see President Yeltsin after
his heart operation. This kind of visit is not left to
chance--neither by Russia nor by China.... The event shows
the high importance attached to the Sino-Russian
relationship by both capitals. The leaders of both states
consider themselves to be victims of the 'new world order'
which was proclaimed by President Bush, and on which the
Clinton administration is working on with other means and
which is characterized by the U.S.' worldwide
leadership.... The idea of a strategic
partnership...against the Western globalists is likely....
This alliance was not just formed out of need; rather, it
is also a consequence of Western arrogance."
"Doubtful Yeltsin Will Concentrate On Needed Reforms"
Centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich's Moscow
correspondent Miriam Neubert filed (12/24), "Russia has
wasted the last two-and-a-half years with elections and
with a sick president. Now there is a chance to
concentrate on the needed reforms. However, it is
doubtful whether the government will be able to exploit
the opportunity. For the one problem that overshadows all
the others, is the state itself, which has developed into
an all-stifling bureaucratic apparatus.... In 1991,
Yeltsin was elected by the people because they thought he
would fight against the nomenclature and its privileges.
But the new, profit-oriented elite has long since learned
how it can use the president for its own ends. The more
the reforms falter, the greater will be the trend towards
more government--a development that pleases the Communist
opposition.... It would be tantamount to a revolution if
Yeltsin succeeded in turning the tables on the apparatus.
But Yeltsin has never been that kind of revolutionary,
even as a healthy, younger man in his political prime four
years ago."
"Yeltsin's Last Chance"
Centrist Cologne/Bonn Express (12/24) declared: "Boris
Yeltsin is back again, promising better times for Russia.
Nicely said, but the Russians cannot buy anything with
words.... They want to see deeds.... If Yeltsin does not
succeed in quickly dismantling the political mafia and
strengthening the reformers, his days in the Kremlin will
be numbered. He won't get another chance."
BRITAIN: "Yeltsin's Job: To Create Real Democracy, Market
Economy"
An editorial in the independent Financial Times remarked
(12/24): "Mr. Yeltsin's first term record is impressive
enough. Five years after he defied a hardline coup from
astride a tank in front of the White House, he has
systematically dismantled Communism.... There are no more
villains threatening to pull the country into dictatorship
or war, for Mr. Yeltsin to conquer. His job, as he begins
his second term in earnest, is no longer to destroy but to
build; not to vanquish enemies but to tame his friends. To
create a real democracy and a liberal market economy in
place of communism, Mr. Yeltsin must today restrict the
powers and wealth of the new elite he himself has brought
to power.
"To make a mark with his second term, he will have to
confront the subtler and more ambiguous challenge of
limiting the powers of his closest allies. This is a job
only Mr. Yeltsin, the patriarch of the current regime, can
accomplish and it could be the hardest of his career. The
winter holidays, traditionally a season for rebirth and
reconciliation, are a good time to begin."
FRANCE: "How Is The Tsar?"
Michel Schifres asked in right-of-center Le Figaro (12/24):
"Can one be at the head of a superpower while
convalescing?... We would so much like to see Russia able
to function and
govern itself even if its leader is ill. But if we listen
to the fears expressed by some and the hopes of others, we
must conclude that in that country the same question comes
back across the centuries: 'How is the Tsar?'"
"How Can You Negotiate With The Outside When Things Inside
Are Crumbling?"
Jean-Francois Begele noted in regional Sud-Ouest (12/24):
"The last card the tired master of the Kremlin holds is the
international recognition he still enjoys. He is the one
on whom Western leaders are counting to reach a compromise
on NATO's enlargement to the East. The question is, how can
one negotiate with the outside world when things are
crumbling inside?"
"Yeltsin Under Close Surveillance"
Readers of right-of-center Les Echos saw this editorial
(12/24): "Yeltsin...certainly will not be granted a second
grace period. He is now under close surveillance, medical
as well as political."
ITALY: "Russia And China: Common Interests"
The signing in Moscow of an economic-military deal between
China and Russia sparked this editorial in leading
financial Il Sole-24 Ore (12/28), "Amid drunkenness and
heart attacks, Yeltsin has achieved two strategically
important foreign policy results: He has obtained the
almost unconditional support of the United States and has
taken relations with China to an unprecedented level of
confidence.... The basic coherence of the Russian
president is not matched by Chinese policy.... Chinese
leaders are still largely dependent on military leaders, on
the bureaucratic leaderhip of the party and on a state
industrial complex which continues to destroy weath....
The interest in a Russia-China partnership is born from a
comon need: territorial and political stability in
Asia..... However, common interests end there. Russia
enjoys bipolarism with the United States and does not
intend to jeopardize it.... Beijng is instead periodically
troubled by the memory of past humiliations and by the fear
that the United States, along with other nations, may want
to prevent its economic growth and its success on the
international level."
BELGIUM: "Dialogue With China Not As Easy As It Seems"
On the occasion of Chinese Prime Minister Li Peng's visit
to Moscow, Michel Rosten judged in conservative Catholic La
Libre Belgique (12/27): "Yeltsin will probably seize this
opportunity to take the situation back into his own hands
and assert himself again on the Russian political scene....
The dialogue with Li Peng does not promise to be as easy as
it seems. One must consider the fact that Defense Minister
Rodionov has taken the liberty of a rather surprising
remark, by saying on the eve of the Chinese premier's
arrival that the country's security can only be threatened
by Iran or by...China. It is true that those two countries
are arming themselves with a force that commands attention;
but they do so to a large extent thanks to Russia, which
sells them weapons on a regular basis!"
CANADA: "U.S. Has To Recognize That Lebed Will Replace
Yeltsin"
According to foreign correspondent John Bierman in the
business-oriented Financial Post (1/3), "The West, and the
United States in particular, will have to recognize the
possibility that Yeltsin might not stay the course and that
Lebed will take his place. Should that occur, Lebed will
undoubtedly prove to be a difficult customer to deal with,
for his outlook tends toward the primitive. Still, he has
proved to be a quick learner.... A President Lebed might
wish for a reassertion of Russian military muscle on the
world scene, but given the present pitiable state of the
armed forces and the pressing nature of domestic problems,
that should not cause any
major loss of sleep to the industrial democracies. And the
prospect of Lebed in the Kremlin would certainly be
preferable to that of the unreconstructed Communist,
Zyuganov."
SPAIN: "A Partnership Directed Against U.S."
An editorial in liberal El Pais (12/31) maintained, "The
'strategic partnership' jointly announced by China and
Russia is directed against Washington, but the differences
in motives of the two powers makes one doubt the
proclaimed new friendship between these neighboring
countries: Russia wants to avoid NATO expansion while
Beijing seeks to increase its weight in Asia and thus
improve its negotiating power with the United States.
China is also seeking to normalize its relationship with
Russia...but also with the United States...and so Beijing's
current criticism of Washington appears to be rhetoric.
China knows that the United States continues to be a key
actor in the region although its role is different from the
one it plays in Europe because there isn't a NATO
structure in Asia."
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
CHINA: "Brief Visit, Great Success"
Beijing's official news agency, Xinhua, featured this
commentary under the headline above (12/28), "The (Li Peng)
visit, whose agenda was packed virtually for one working
day, was brief indeed. However, it scored fruitful
achievements and had a great significance.... Li was the
first visiting foreign leader that President Yeltsin has
met after his recovery from heart surgery.... Li pointed
out that Jiang's visit to Russia next spring will be of
great importance to the further development of the
bilateral relations, and his visit was a preparation for
President Jiang's state visit. He reaffirmed that the
development of a strategic partnership with Russia is by no
means an expedient, but a long-term policy of China.
"The two leaders have not only reached a strategic
consensus on bilateral relations, but also conducted in-
depth discussions over important international issues, such
as the formation of a multipolar world.... The world is
moving towards multi-polarization. Both Russia and China
are important countries with great influence in the
world...(and) well deserve to be two important and
independent poles in the multipolar world.... Leaders of
both countries made it clear that they do not favor a world
dominated by one power.... The strategic partnership
between China and Russia is not directed against any other
parties. It is not only in the basic interests of the two
peoples, but also conducive to global peace and
development."
JAPAN: "Restarting Yeltsin's Diplomacy"
Liberal Asahi's editorial said (12/28), "Russian Foreign
Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who is shifting to
omnidirectional diplomacy from a lean-toward-one-side
policy toward the West, recently visited Iran. The foreign
minister criticized the U.S. policy of isolating Iran,
saying (Russia) opposes a foreign military build-up in the
Persian Gulf. Such Russian independent diplomacy with
China, India and Iran can be regarded as reinforcement
measures for its weak diplomacy in negotiating with the
West.... It seems there are growing signs of a (worldwide)
trend toward trying to build a realistic order in each
region in the post-Cold War world. Japan should pay
attention to countries that feel a sense of alienation from
the U.S.-Japan security declaration, as well as the
expansion (to Eastern (sic) Europe) of NATO."
INDONESIA: "Russia: Democratic Experiment"
In the editorial view of leading, independent Kompas (1/2),
"Advancing democratic practices to reflect a civil society
is not a one- or two-day exercise but an ongoing process
that requires strength and tenacity. What Russia has
achieved since it made such an effort five years ago may be
minor progress. But, hopefully, the Russian experience
will inspire other nations which
may still be doubtful about empowering their societies
with civil rights, even though such rights are already
stipulated in their constitutions."
PHILIPPINES: "Yeltsin's Tough Task"
Editorial consultant Amando Doronila of the independent and
second largest circulation Philippine Daily Inquirer (1/3)
compared Philippine conditions with those of Russia:
"Unlike President Ramos, Yeltsin faces a tougher task in
regaining political control and curbing the powers of his
caretaker deputies. The Russian economy is in disarray.
Russian democracy is undergoing a turbulent consolidation
that has been disrupted by Yeltsin's incapacity. Russia is
a country that is hard to govern, and the unruly behavior
of the Russians has been magnified by their transition to
democracy and to the market economy. Yeltsin's prolonged
illness did not lead to a takeover by the prime minister,
and the fact that a coup did not take place despite the
discontent arising from delayed salaries of soldiers and
miserable conditions of the army is a remarkable feat....
While both presidents are feisty, Yeltsin is not yet out of
the woods. Not only does he need to reassert his power but
also he has to pick up reforms that have lost momentum
during his absence."
THAILAND: "Better China-Russia Ties Is Boon For ASEAN"
Kawi Chongkitthawon wrote for the independent, English-
language Nation (12/30), "Closer China-Russia relations
will have far-reaching implications on the region, which to
date has largely depended on the good will of the United
States for its security. Against this background, ASEAN
will also enjoy more leverage in its relations with all
major powers in both global and regional contexts....
Together as new dialogue partners, China and Russia have
direct access to the hearts and minds of ASEAN's leaders.
They can also shape the agenda of ASEAN discussions with
the Western dialogue partners.... And after all, ASEAN
needs a credible counterbalancing force vis-a-vis the
United States.... With common positions on non-security
issues such as international economic, social and cultural
areas, ASEAN can work with China and Russia on such
sensitive topics as human rights and democracy.... Judging
from the ASEAN leaders' united stand on Burma, and
Singapore's reaction to the U.S. State Department's comment
on its elections, this diversionary debate on Asian values
versus Western values will not go away."
"Yeltsin Achievements Unlikely"
The mass-circulation Daily News's Lens Zoom commented
(1/1), "Despite his recovery from the (physical) overhaul,
few believe that President Boris Yeltsin will be able to
successfully tackle Russia's various outstanding ills. The
Russian economy is believed to remain reeling, as his
effort at market reform has hurt the vast majority of
Russians so used to depending on state subsidies and
unable to adjust.... Infighting and political struggling
among Yeltsin's close associates will also work to
undermine his leadership and prevent any possible
achievements."
SOUTH ASIA
IRAN: "A Strategic Alliance Threat To West, Particularly
America"
Tehran's Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran network
declared (12/29), "China and Russia signed an agreement
yesterday and thus demonstrated their will to set aside the
rest of their past rivalries and to form an alliance
against the united Western front.... The Russian press
explicitly reflected this message yesterday and praised the
determination of China and Russia to confront the advance
of NATO toward Eastern Europe and to put a security stop to
America in Asia. Many political experts believe that the
quiet transformation, which began in the relations between
Moscow and Beijing since Yeltsin's visit to China last
year, has been given a
new impetus by this agreement.... The use of the word
'strategic' to describe the agreement signed yesterday in
Moscow has deep meaning for Beijing and Moscow which the
West, in particular America, has to consider as the start
of a threat which will end with acceptance of rights and an
equal position for China and Russia next to the united
Western front and its military organ, NATO."
"Moscow, Tehran Trying To Prevent Illegitimate U.S.
Influence"
Radical, Persian-language Salam, which reflects the views
of the regime's hardliners, ran this commentary (12/22) in
anticipation of Russian Foreign Minister Primakov's visit
to Tehran December 22: "Now the policy known as the 'view
to the East' gives top priority in Russian foreign policy
to the promotion of relations with countries such as Iran
with a number of objectives: 1. To revive Russia's
political and economic influence in areas in which the
former Soviet Union enjoyed influence; and to exploit the
consequent results. 2. To safeguard Russia's security as
well as its political and economic interests in its border
regions to the East and the South. 3. To promote
relations with Asian countries and enhance Russian
influence in this part of the world as a lever for
exercising influence over the Western world, particularly
the United States, and to score over (Western countries) in
regions such as Eastern Europe. As one of Russia's
important neighbors, Iran has relatively similar interests
and objectives at the regional and international levels.
On the one hand, Tehran is trying to prevent the
illegitimate influence of the United States in the Persian
Gulf, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea
region, and the Caucasus, and is unwilling, like Russia, to
accept the expansionism of the United States and some of
its allies in these regions. On the other hand, Tehran
welcomes the promotion of relations between countries such
as China and Russia, in order to fight against Washington's
hegemony in regional and international calculations....
"The progress in these relations (Russia-Iran) is cautious
and gradual, but should the two sides use the existing
potential and climate properly, such relations could
increase Russia's capacity to gain its historic position
against the West and could help Iran increase its capacity
to maneuver against the United States and to prepare a
balanced relationship with other Western countries."
INDIA: "China: Dominant Partner?"
An analysis in the centrist Pioneer by foreign editor V.
Sudarshan stressed (1/7), "Both China and Russia have
announced that it will be an equal partnership.... In this
specific context, China would automatically look like the
dominant partner, even if it is not officially
acknowledged.... Just as there is bound to be a fallout in
the Far East, there is likely to be some reaction in the
Commonwealth of Independent States as well.... The
temptation is to conclude that there is more political fog
than any inherent clarity of purpose in the grand alliance
that aspires to Siamese-twins superpower status.
Theoretically, multipolarity is certainly better than
unipolarity.... As is obvious at this moment, this alleged
strategic partnership raises more questions than it
answers."
"Protecting Themselves From Long American Reach"
An editorial (1/3) in the right-of-center Newstime from
Hyderabad: "There is little chance that Washington will be
quaking in fear over the development. If nothing else,
both China and Russia need the United States far more in
economic terms than they need each other.... Rather it
suggests two countries, unsure of their resources and
strengths, desperately turning to each other to protect
themselves from the long American reach in every sphere.
But both will be wary of getting together in the one sphere
which will really get America worried: nuclear weaponry."
"Slapping Backs, But Nothing To Lose Sleep Over"
An editorial in the centrist Telegraph from Calcutta (1/1)
remarked: "It would be nice to think Russia and China are
reliving the spirit of the '50s. But despite talk of a
'strategic partnership' in the communique issued after the
recent visit of Chinese Premier Li Peng to Moscow, no one
in the West will lose any sleep. Li's visit and the summit
scheduled in April...for Messrs. Jiang Zemin and Boris
Yeltsin will not define a new dimension to Sino-Russian
relations.... The bilateral pickings so far have been
pretty meager.... Talk of a partnership is all very well
but there is nothing tangible among all the rhetoric: No
military coordination, no joint policy plans, no real trade
negotiations, not even any condemnation of the West on
specific issues. This is the stuff of posture, not
politics.....
"Beijing and Moscow would both like a multipolar world.
They both get bullied and pushed around by the United
States on a regular basis.... But an effective counter to
the West will not be accomplished through speeches.... But
it is good that Russia and China are slapping backs. When
they are not, the world has real reason to lose sleep."
"Yeltsin Is Back And Ready For Battle"
In the editorial opinion of the right-of-center Newstime
from Hyderabad (12/28): "President Boris Yeltsin is back
in the Kremlin and 'ready for battle.'...
Characteristically, Yeltsin's first priority appeared to be
not any of Russia's multiple problems but the hostage
crisis in faraway Peru.... Yeltsin offered to send anti-
terrorist forces to Lima to help resolve the impasse,
something which even American President Bill Clinton has
not done so far.... But Yeltsin has always been a
resilient figure, and by his foreign policy statements...he
has given notice that he intends to [insist on] Russia
still being a superpower despite the breakup of Soviet
Union. That should be good news for Third World countries
who are tired of the Clinton administration's bullying
tactics on issues ranging from nuclear proliferation to
intellectual property rights. Even in a unipolar world, a
balancing factor is essential."
"Partnership Of Paranoia: Can China And Russia Wish Away
Washington?"
Under the headline above, the right-of-center Indian
Express (12/31) pointed out: "The post-Cold War world is
invariably decried in a familiar cliche: a world under the
sway of a singular superpower. Though anti-imperialism has
long ago ceased to be a decisive motif...shopworn fears
about pax Americana continue to be paraded in certain
capitals of the so-called Third World. It is less a
reality than a habit.... Hence the trend...contain the
U.S. tide by seeking new alliances. No surprise then
[that] the consolidation of China-Russia friendship, marked
by Li Peng's three-day visit to Moscow, is widely seen as a
defensive response to an 'insensitive' Washington.... But
this partnership...is not all that inspiring. First, China
and Russia can no longer afford to be equal partners. One
is a booming market with extraterritorial
untrustworthiness. The other, sick and chaotic, is in the
first stage of civil society. And both have to face in the
near future the trauma of succession.... The currently
deionized Washington may still be there--not necessarily as
a nuisance, but as a partner worthy of doing business
with."
PAKISTAN: "Primakov's Iran Visit"
Under the headline above, an editorial in the radical, pro-
Iran Muslim (12/30) stressed: "The timing of the
(Primakov) visit (to Iran) is significant. It has come at
a time when Washington and its allies in the Persian Gulf
and the Middle East seem to be preparing grounds for yet
another military operation to knock out oil installations
in Iran....
"Through Primakov's visit, a message has been conveyed to
the United States that Moscow is
not impressed by the U.S. policy towards Iran and it is
about time the United states gave up its policy of muscle
flexing, military escalation and confrontation in
conducting its foreign policy.... It was against this
backdrop that made Primakov proclaim from Tehran that he
expected a 10-fold increase in the two-way trade between
Russia and Iran by the turn of the century. Wisdom demands
that the Americans give up the primitive policy of
confrontation with Iran and follow the Russian example."
"Sino-Russian Entente"
An editorial in Karachi's independent, national Dawn said
(12/30), "Russia and China, who until about six years ago
stood on the opposite sides of a deep ideological divide,
now appear poised for a strong strategic partnership....
Although it is still too early to expect a return to
anything comparable to a bipolar balance of power, Moscow
and Beijing should find themselves less and less under
pressure from Washington on issues such as nuclear
cooperation--which is how it has been in the absence of any
credible counterweight to American power in world
affairs....
"The coming together of China and Russia should be of
particular significance in the Central Asian context, too.
The inclusion of the representatives of three Central Asian
states in the Sino-Russian talks in Moscow and in last
April's summit in Beijing clearly suggests that Russia no
longer regards the Central Asian states as its
protectorates. It is even seen as the first step towards a
new Asian security system, with a strong underpinning of
economic rather than military cooperation."
AFRICA
SOUTH AFRICA: "Significance Of Sino-Russian
Reconciliation"
Leopold Scholtz, senior political editor for Afrikaans-
language, centrist Beeld and Die Burger, commented (1/3):
"It might be too early to run with it, but a broad
development which has the potential to become the most
important international power shift of 1996, is the
reconciliation between Russia and China. If it grows roots
it can change significantly the political constellation....
Indeed...if China does not disintegrate and if Russia could
only partially recover, it could become a serious threat
for Western Europe.
"In the smoke-filled rooms of Washington, Brussels, Paris
and Bonn, where politics is formulated, policy strategists
should be uneasy about this development. It is aimed
against them and consequently it is in their interest not
to drive Moscow any further in the arms of Beijing. This
should become a high priority."
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
PANAMA: "Yeltsin, Building A Bipolar World"
Conservative El Panama America, in an editorial, held
(1/7): "Hardly recovered from his complicated heart
surgery...Yeltsin is working at breaking the strategic
circle around his country created by the NATO Alliance.
Many of the former Soviet countries have requested
admission into NATO.... Yeltsin is moving at full speed.
He recently met with Chinese President Li Peng...and
issued a combined Chinese-Russian announcement on the
establishment of a strategic alliance... to create a
bipolar world to counterbalance the United States....
China is rapidly becoming Asia's first commercial power and
very soon (will be) the second or third in the world....
Meanwhile, Russia still maintains most of the technology
that its weakened economy is unable to keep up to date....
Yeltsin (also) met with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl...and
is promoting contacts with India and Japan."
##
For more information, please contact:
U.S. Information Agency
Office of Public Liaison
Telephone: (202) 619-4355
1/7/97
# # #
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