DATE=3/9/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39203
TITLE=NORTH / SOUTH KOREA
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH KOREA'S NEW PRESIDENT KIM DAE
JUNG HAS MADE IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE NORTH A TOP PRIORITY.
CORRESPONDENT STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS SOME AMERICAN OBSERVERS ARE
HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA ARE RIGHT FOR
PROGRESS IN NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS.
TEXT: ON MARCH 16TH, IN GENEVA, REPRESENTATIVES FROM NORTH AND
SOUTH KOREA, THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA ARE TO MEET AGAIN IN
WHAT ARE CALLED "THE FOUR-WAY TALKS." THE NEGOTIATIONS ARE AIMED
AT ACHIEVING A LASTING PEACE ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA -- INCLUDING
A FORMAL END TO THE KOREAN WAR, WAGED IN THE EARLY 1950'S, AND
REDUCTIONS IN THE SIZEABLE DEPLOYMENTS OF TROOPS AND WEAPONRY ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE.
MEANWHILE, SOUTH KOREA IS CALLING FOR A PARALLEL SET OF TALKS
JUST BETWEEN ITS OFFICIALS AND THOSE FROM PYONGYANG, WITH A
NARROWER AGENDA. A SPOKESMAN FOR SOUTH KOREA'S UNIFICATION
MINISTRY SAYS THE BILATERAL NORTH-SOUTH TALKS WOULD FOCUS ON SUCH
ISSUES AS ARRANGING A NORTH-SOUTH LEADERS' SUMMIT AND THE REUNION
OF FAMILIES WHOSE MEMBERS WERE SEPARATED IN THE KOREAN WAR.
A SENIOR FELLOW WITH THE ASIAN STUDIES CENTER AT THE HERITAGE
FOUNDATION IN WASHINGTON, DARYL PLUNK, SAYS HE HAS BEEN
DISAPPOINTED SO FAR IN THE FOUR-WAY TALKS. MR. PLUNK SAYS HE
SEES MORE HOPE IN THE INITIATIVE BY SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM
DAE JUNG TO HOLD DIRECT BILATERAL TALKS WITH THE NORTH.
// PLUNK ACT 1 //
// OPT // MEETINGS THAT JUST TOOK PLACE ... IN SEOUL
BETWEEN U-S AND SOUTH KOREAN OFFICIALS HAVE PRODUCED AN
AGREEMENT THAT BOTH SIDES WILL PUT A NEW EMPHASIS ON
CALLING ON THE NORTH TO ESTABLISH A PARALLEL SET OF
BILATERAL TALKS WITH THE SOUTH THAT WOULD MOVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE FOUR-WAY TALKS. // END OPT // THE FOUR-WAY
TALKS, WHICH OF COURSE INCLUDE CHINA AND THE UNITED
STATES, WOULD AIM AT GETTING BROAD MILITARY AND PEACE
MECHANISMS STRUCTURES SET UP DOWN THE ROAD. THE
BILATERAL NORTH-SOUTH TALKS WOULD AIM AT THE INCREMENTAL
CONFIDENCE BUILDING STEPS. AND I THINK THAT'S REALLY
THE WAY TO GO.
// END ACT //
MR. PLUNK NOTES THAT NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA SIGNED A
RECONCILIATION AGREEMENT IN 1991 THAT WAS INTENDED TO MOVE THE
BILATERAL PROCESS FORWARD. HOWEVER, HE SAYS THE EFFORT WAS
BLOCKED BY THE CRISIS THAT AROSE OVER NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR
WEAPONS PROGRAM IN 1993. THEN, IN 1994, PYONGYANG AND THE UNITED
STATES SIGNED AN ACCORD UNDER WHICH THE NORTH AGREED TO DISMANTLE
ITS NUCLEAR PLANTS IN EXCHANGE FOR LESS CONTROVERSIAL FACILITIES.
AND DARYL PLUNK SAYS THE NORTH HAS BEEN TRYING TO BYPASS THE
SOUTH EVER SINCE.
MR. PLUNK CALLS IT AN EXTREMELY HOPEFUL SIGN THAT PRESIDENT KIM,
WHO TOOK OFFICE JUST LAST MONTH, IS TRYING TO PUT THE FOCUS BACK
ON THE 1991 RECONCILIATION AGREEMENT -- IN HIS WORDS -- THE ONLY
TREATY EVER SIGNED BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA.
// PLUNK ACT 2 //
IT'S VIRTUALLY A ROAD MAP TO PEACE AND EVENTUAL
REUNIFICATION, COVERING SOCIAL EXCHANGES, COVERING
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EXCHANGES, AND EVEN DISCUSSING
THE MECHANISM FOR ACHIEVING EVENTUAL REUNIFICATION.
THAT IMPORTANT DOCUMENT WAS MORE OR LESS SUPERCEDED BY
THE 1994 AGREEMENT THAT THE U-S SIGNED WITH NORTH KOREA.
AND KIM DAE JUNG, VERY CORRECTLY, HAS BEGUN TO MOVE THE
FOCUS BACK ON THIS IMPORTANT AGREEMENT THAT WAS NEVER
IMPLEMENTED.
// END ACT //
DEAN OF THE SCHOOL OF FOREIGN SERVICE AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY,
ALLAN GOODMAN, AGREES. HE SAYS ANY BILATERAL EFFORT BY NORTH AND
SOUTH KOREA WILL MAKE A GREATER CONTRIBUTION TO STABILITY ON THE
PENINSULA THAN TALKS INVOLVING THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA. AND
MR. GOODMAN IS OPTIMISTIC THAT SOUTH KOREA'S ECONOMIC TROUBLES
WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN OBSTACLE TO IMPROVED TIES WITH THE
NORTH.
// GOODMAN ACT 1 //
I ALSO THINK THAT WHILE THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY IS
UNDER INCREDIBLE STRESS -- PRESIDENT KIM NOW HAS A
TREMENDOUS JOB AHEAD OF HIM, IT'S COMING BACK A LOT
FASTER THAN OTHER ECONOMIES IN ASIA, AND THAT HE IS
GOING TO TURN OUT TO HAVE THE RESOURCES TO DEAL WITH THE
NORTH AS WELL AS PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTH. IF THAT TURNS
OUT TO BE THE CASE, IT MAKES IT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOR THE NORTH AND SOUTH TO BE IN A DIALOGUE NOW, TO DO
CONFIDENCE BUILDING STEP BY STEP, AND TO BE SEEN AS
DOING IT INDEPENDENTLY OF BOTH CHINA AND THE UNITED
STATES, ALTHOUGH NEITHER COUNTRY REALLY IS.
// END ACT //
// OPT // DESPITE ITS OWN ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES, SOUTH KOREA
ANNOUNCED MONDAY IT WILL SEND 50-THOUSAND TONS OF GRAIN TO NORTH
KOREA, WHICH IS SUFFERING FROM A SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGE. // END OPT
//
PROFESSOR GOODMAN SAYS HE IS HOPEFUL, BUT ALSO CAUTIONS THAT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA IS THE LAST PLACE WHERE THE COLD WAR EXISTS AND
TENSIONS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
// GOODMAN ACT 2 //
I THINK THAT THE FAMINE CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN NORTH
KOREA AND THE ISOLATION OF THAT REGIME MAKE IT VERY
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THEY SEE THE NATURE OF WHAT SOUTH
KOREA IS DOING FOR THEM AND TO THEM, AND HOW THEY'RE
GOING TO RESPOND. I THINK IT'S ONLY A 50-50 PROPOSITION
THAT THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP IS GOING TO SEE THE
WORLD COMMUNITY AND ITS OUTREACH TO NORTH KOREA NOW AS A
PEACEFUL GESTURE. THERE IS AN EQUAL RISK THAT NORTH
KOREA WILL FEEL THAT THE FAMINE IS CAUSED BY FORCES
OTHER THAN ONES IN THEIR OWN SOCIETY, THAT THE SOUTH
KOREANS ARE INTENT ON TAKING THEM OVER, AND THAT NORTH
KOREA, AS A RESULT OF THESE DIRE DOMESTIC CONDITIONS,
WILL PREPARE FOR WAR.
// END ACT //
ALLAN GOODMAN AND DARYL PLUNK WERE GUESTS ON THE V-O-A WEEKEND
INTERVIEW SHOW "ENCOUNTER." (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN
09-Mar-98 3:39 PM EST (2039 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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