Tracking Number: 190570
Title: "Scholar: Korean Reunification Would Be Similar to Germany." American Enterprise Institute fellow Dr Nicholas Eberstadt says that although the process of reunification of North and South Korea would be similar to the reunification of Germany, reunifying Korea may be more complicated. (910717)
Author: FELDMAN, AMY DEBRA (USIA STAFF WRITER)
Date: 19910717
Text:
*EPF304
07/17/91 *
SCHOLAR: KOREAN REUNIFICATION WOULD BE SIMILAR TO GERMANY
(Article on AEI's Eberstadt TPC remarks with Taegu) (960)
By Amy Debra Feldman
USIA Staff Writer
Washington -- Although the process of reunification of North Korea and the Republic of Korea would be similar to the reunification of East and West Germany, reunifying Korea may be more complicated, Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said in a USIA telepress conference with Taegu.
"It is my strong impression that reunification in the Korean peninsula will occur in the same fashion as the reunification in Germany," Eberstadt said July 9.
Reunification will occur "not with a confederation of two states, not with a gradually growing closer of two different societies, but with the collapse of one state and the absorption of that state into the other," he said.
When the two Germanys reunified, East Germany was absorbed by West Germany. Eberstadt predicted that the Republic of Korea will absorb North Korea in a similar manner but he foresees difficulties in the process.
"The German example, in some ways, I think, is misleading because in many ways Korean reunification, as a practical matter, will be even more complicated than the German reunification is turning out to be.
Eberstadt said the Republic of Korea would absorb North Korea for several reasons. The Republic of Korea "is vastly ahead of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) at this point" due to economic progress and diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Korea, as well as other evidence of what he termed a "correlation of forces."
The defeat of Iraq -- a militarized society similar to North Korea -- in the Persian Gulf war results in the decreasing significance of North Korea as a military force, Eberstadt said.
"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's last card, as with other Soviet- style societies, has been its military strength. But, we have just seen in the Gulf war that another highly militarized society with forces not unlike those in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was very handily defeated by an allied effort in a head-on conflict."
GE 2 EPF304 Furthermore, "the significance of the outcome of the Gulf war cannot be minimized. I think that has had an extraordinary impact on the understanding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea leadership, of their situation in the world. I think it is no coincidence that the DPRK government has reversed its policy and suggested that it join the United Nations after seeing the consequences of the Gulf conflict."
Eberstadt believes that the government of North Korea is cognizant of the unique situation the two countries are facing and is aware that the country's economic circumstances are desperate. "They must struggle to maintain even their difficult position in the world at the moment," he said.
"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's current desperate circumstances and the Republic of Korea's strong and very confident circumstances make this a time in which the Republic of Korea's overtures towards the DPRK can be very helpful in building the bridges which may help conduce the reunification in the future."
Addressing the role of the United States in the Pacific region, Eberstadt said that "American policy towards the Korean peninsula is full of goodwill" and "the United States is fully in favor of a free and reunified Korean peninsula."
Eberstadt said that since the United States has strong security connections with the Republic of Korea, he suspects in the concluding phases prior to reunification, the security ties between the two countries may become stronger.
He stressed the importance of separating issues of trade and security in the Pacific region in the discussions about reunification. "It's quite important to keep our current trade disputes separate from our views on security.
Trade concerns business. There is no disagreement about the commitment (of the United States) to Korea's security."
Eberstadt did not predict a timetable for reunification but said that he believes a report commissioned by Republic of Korea President Kim Il-sung will be released either at the end of summer or the beginning of fall. The report is being conducted by economists who are writing proposals for reunification and anticipating possible problems about the reunification.
Communist rule of East Germany, the financial security of West Germany and the "rule of law" in West Germany were three main differences between the reunification of those two nations that may make reunification more difficult in Korea than in Germany.
GE 3 EPF304 "East Germany was a complete Soviet satellite. When the Soviet Union withdrew its full support, East Germany collapsed like a house of cards," Eberstadt said. "Although propaganda has sometimes suggested that North Korea is a Soviet satellite, I don't really think it is. I think that North Korea has done a very skillful job of playing Russia against China to get aid from both countries while giving allegiance to neither country.
"A second difference is that Germany is much richer than Korea. Germany has enormous financial resources to draw upon in financing reunification. Germany also had a very strong current account balance in its trade flows. Basically, Germany can finance reunification through its trade balance and through higher taxes. The Republic of Korea has a very high savings rate but I don't think it will be possible to finance reunification in the same way. It may have to become a very big borrower from the international marketplace to finance reunification.
"A third difference is that West Germany is a state based on the rule of law. While the Republic of Korea has liberalized and made many strides recently, I don't think that one could really say it is a society governed by a complete rule of law at this time."
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File Identification: 07/17/91, EP-304
Product Name: Wireless File
Product Code: WF
Keywords: EBERSTADT, NICHOLAS; KOREA (NORTH)-KOREA (SOUTH) RELATIONS;
REUNIFICATION (TERRITORY); GERMANY/Politics & Government; KOREA (NORTH)/Defense & Military; KOREA (SOUTH)-US RELATIONS; SECURITY ASSISTANCE; KIM IL-SONG
Thematic Codes: 1EA
Target Areas: EA
PDQ Text
Link: 190570
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