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Analysis: Pakistan's New Leader and the U.S. Dilemma

Council on Foreign Relations

September 8, 2008
Author: Jayshree Bajoria

Pakistan's new president (BBC), Asif Ali Zardari, assumes office at a time of great political turmoil, intense terrorist violence, economic weakness, and deteriorating relations with neighboring India and Afghanistan. The powers of his own office, inherited from former President Pervez Musharraf, will also be in question. Musharraf first assumed office through a 1999 military coup and gradually expanded the presidency's powers through constitutional amendments, including the ability to dissolve parliament. President Zardari, widower of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and leader of her Pakistan People's Party, has promised to restore the balance of powers (WashPost).

Zardari's foreign policy challenges are also daunting. His vow to continue his predecessor's counterterrorism partnership with the United States will face new hurdles after revelations that the United States staged ground force attacks (NYT) on Pakistani soil this month. While the White House declined to comment on the incident, both houses of Pakistan's parliament made a forceful statement (Dawn), including a demand that Pakistan's army prepare itself to "repel such attacks in the future with full force." Some in the Bush administration have expressed frustration with Pakistan's performance on counterterrorism, and this could signal a decision to set aside sensitivities and increase U.S. operations into Pakistan to pursue militants (LAT).

Closer to home, Zardari must grapple with his own military. Pakistan expert Shuja Nawaz, writing in PostGlobal, notes "the army still remains a key player in Pakistan." The country’s military and intelligence services have a long history of ties with, and sympathies for, the Taliban. Some analysts charge these ties render any Pakistani counterterrorist strategy ineffective. "The main challenge for the civilian government is to gradually assert their predominance over the military (PDF)," argues South Asia expert Frederick Grare. However, he warns, it must do so without humiliating the military and avoid direct confrontation.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.