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Analysis: A Crucial Vote in Pakistan

Council on Foreign Relations

February 15, 2008
Author: Jayshree Bajoria

Many have expressed hope that Pakistan’s February 18 parliamentary elections (ElectionGuide.org) will bring political stability to a country torn by militancy, emergency rule, and political upheaval. But amid incidents of violence (al-Jazeera) and allegations of biased election officials, some Pakistanis are bracing for more turbulence after the polling. One chief reason is alleged disenfranchisement. The Free and Fair Election Network, a coalition of Pakistani civil-society organizations observing the election process, says fifteen million voters, representing more than 17 percent of the total, are still missing from the final electoral roll (PDF). Says Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch:“There have been numerous complaints of improper government assistance to the ruling party and illegal interference with opposition activities.” Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf has denied all such charges (VOA), assuring there will be free and fair elections. Media reports (BBC) have suggested otherwise.

Pakistan’s government has banned exit polls, but several opinion surveys by international organizations point toward the growing popularity of opposition political parties and Musharraf’s plummeting credibility. A recent poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan showed 64 percent of Pakistanis say the country’s stability and security would improve if Musharraf resigned. Musharraf’s popularity, which had declined since the judicial crisis in March 2007, plunged further last December after opposition party leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. A survey conducted by the U.S.-based organization Terror Free Tomorrow in January 2008 showed 58 percent of Pakistanis blame Musharraf (PDF), government-allied politicians, and government agencies for Bhutto’s death.

Pakistan’s economy, worsened by recent political upheaval, topped voter concerns in the latest poll by the U.S.-based International Republican Institute (IRI). Also, voter surveys made clear that Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) could benefit from a sympathetic vote; it topped the field (PDF), garnering 50 percent in the national sample.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.