Analysis: A Rough Ride for Pakistan
Council on Foreign Relations
October 4, 2007
Prepared by: Jayshree Bajoria
To protect his future interests, the general named a loyalist, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the former chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy service, to succeed him (AFP) as the nation’s top military officer. Given that the election is in the hands of the national assembly plus four provincial parliaments, the opposition’s decision to boycott it virtually assures the his reelection.
But a Musharraf victory, analysts warn, does not necessarily translate to stability. The army is failing in its fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban forces, who have aggressively expanded their influence and operations in the tribal and border areas, pushing large parts of the country beyond government control (WashPost).
Pakistan’s army, like its population, is deeply divided over the “war on terror,” and analysts see recent incidents of mass army surrenders to smaller groups of militants as a sign that the military will not fight (NewKerala.com) an internal war on behalf of what many of its officers view as Washington’s interests.
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Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.
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