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Analysis: Musharraf and his Labyrinth

Council on Foreign Relations

July 18, 2007
Prepared by: Michael Moran, Maggie Goodlander

As the Pakistani government scrambles to salvage a peace accord (BosGlobe) with tribal leaders along the country’s lawless northwest frontier, unrest elsewhere in Pakistan has raised new questions about the stability of Pervez Musharraf’s military government. The ten-month-old truce, known as the Miramshah Agreement, was viewed at the beginning by some critics as a capitulation (ABC) after Pakistani troops suffered heavy casualties in trying to impose order on the region. This CFR.org Interactive Map looks at the historically ungovernable region.

The Miramshah agreement compelled Pakistan to withdraw troops from the region, a stronghold of Pakistan’s Taliban as well as the most likely location of al-Qaeda’s leadership. In theory, Musharraf and Bush administration officials argue the truce would convert the prickly tribal chieftains, whose long history of resistance to central government rule is detailed in this Backgrounder, into allies against radical Islamists.

In fact, as a new National Intelligence Estimate, makes clear, al-Qaeda and its allies instead have thrived in the vacuum (LAT).

The new U.S. intelligence assessment can only add to the general’s labyrinthine woes. The Dawn, an influential Pakistani newspaper, opines that Musharraf’s problems in facing down violence range from public perception to “the inability of President Musharraf to find the right political allies to support [his actions].

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.