U.S. Warns Pakistan: No New A-TestBy Thomas E. Ricks and Vernon Loeb
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, May 24, 2000; Page A21
The U.S. government, alarmed by intelligence reports of possible preparations for a nuclear test in Pakistan, warned Islamabad last week against carrying out any additional tests.
"We have raised this issue with the Pakistani government and have received assurances that they have no plans to test again," an administration official said yesterday.
May 28 marks the second anniversary of Pakistan's detonation of five nuclear devices in the Chagai Hills in southwestern Pakistan.
Two days later, Pakistan tested another warhead. The tests were conducted in response to two rounds of nuclear tests by India earlier that month.
Administration officials were tight-lipped about what specifically set off alarms among intelligence analysts.
But David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington think tank that investigates secret nuclear facilities around the world, said his organization had begun analyzing a high-resolution commercial satellite image shot in March of what is believed to be the site of Pakistan's second nuclear test in 1998. He said his analysts have detected a new road that winds past what appears to be a crater from the 1998 test to small structures that don't appear to have been there two years ago.
"It's pretty clear to me that the intelligence community is not going to be caught again," Albright said. "But photo interpretation can tell you only so much even when you're the best in the world."
John Pike, a defense expert at the Federation of American Scientists, expressed less concern. "I think this is 'rumint'--that is, rumor intelligence," he said. In fact, he said, "There doesn't appear to be an awful lot going on."
On the other hand, Pike said, the round of tests two years ago surprised a lot of people too.
The Central Intelligence Agency appears determined not to have that happen again, and so may have issued its warning on relatively thin evidence, officials hinted. "Our intelligence folks, having been surprised once, are naturally going to raise alarms," one of the administration officials said.
Patrick G. Eddington, a former CIA imagery analyst, said India and Pakistan are able to calculate when U.S. spy satellites will be passing over their test sites. Thus, the ability of analysts at the National Imagery and Mapping Agency to detect activity at Pakistan's test sites, he said, "comes down to how much effort [Pakistani scientists] are willing to put forth to camouflage what they're doing. . . ."
Undersecretary of State Thomas R. Pickering will visit Pakistan later this week to discuss security issues and is expected to meet with Indian officials.
© 2000 The Washington Post Company
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