DATE=10/13/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=PAK POL - INDIA REACT
NUMBER=5-44489
BYLINE=JIM TEEPLE
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: News of Tuesday's military coup in Pakistan
has sent a chill through the political establishment
in India. India and Pakistan clashed earlier this
year in the Kargil region of Kashmir but there were
hopes in New Delhi that relations could improve once
Indian Prime Minster Atal Behari Vajpayee formed his
new government. VOA's Jim Teeple reports the coup in
Pakistan is likely to raise tensions once again
between Islamabad and New Delhi.
Text: Just a few days ago, following his resounding
victory in parliament elections, Atal Behari Vajpayee
sounded optimistic about relations with Pakistan.
Mr. Vajpayee said one of his top priorities would be
to try and re-start the dialogue with Pakistan that
has been suspended ever since fighting broke out in
the Kargil region of Kashmir in May.
Despite their considerable differences, Atal Behari
Vajpayee and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
enjoyed a personal chemistry. In February Mr.
Vajpayee traveled to Pakistan on a bus, and the trip
led to the Lahore Declaration, a statement of
principles on improving relations between New Delhi
and Islamabad. Relations between Pakistan's military
and Mr. Vajpayee are not likely to be as cordial says
Brahma Chellaney, a leading policy analyst in New
Delhi, who is also a professor at the independent
Center for Policy Research.
// CHELLANEY ACTUALITY //
The Pakistan military has never sought to build a
friendly relationship with India. Whenever the
military has held the reigns of power the relationship
with India has suffered, and whenever Pakistan has had
an elected civilian government that government has not
been given the room by the military to develop better
relations with India.
// END ACTUALITY //
India and Pakistan came close to war this year after
Indian troops confronted infiltrators who had crossed
into Indian territory in Kashmir from the Pakistani
side of the border. India says the bulk of the
infiltrators were Pakistani paramilitary forces
supported by Islamic militants. Even though Nawaz
Sharif agreed to work to withdraw the infiltrators,
Pakistan never admitted involvement in the operation.
The conflict lasted more than two months leaving
thousands dead and tensions high between New Delhi and
Islamabad.
Last year both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear
tests, raising fears of nuclear proliferation, and an
all-out arms race in the region. Brahma Chellaney of
the Center for Policy Research says even though
Pakistan's military is believed to favor a more
confrontational approach with India over Kashmir,
there are unlikely to be any immediate problems
between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, or Nuclear
issues.
// CHELLANEY ACT //
I do not see the ground situation changing along the
line of control with Kashmir nor do I see this
development impacting on the nuclear plans of either
country because the Pakistan military has been in
charge of the nuclear program in Pakistan and they
have been calling the shots there right from the
beginning.
// END ACT /
Brahma Chellaney says while there is unlikely to be
any new confrontation between India and Pakistan as a
result of the military coup -- relations between the
two countries are likely to harden. Pakistan's
military he says has been traditionally antagonistic
towards India, and the new government in New Delhi
will be reluctant to deal with a military regime or
even an interim government that does not have a
popular mandate. (Signed)
neb/jlt/plm
13-Oct-1999 03:20 AM EDT (13-Oct-1999 0720 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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