DATE=10/12/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=PAKISTAN-MILITARY
NUMBER=5-44488
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The seizure of power by the military in
Pakistan is the latest in a series of army
interventions in politics since the country gained
independence in 1947. Correspondent Nick Simeone
tells us the Clinton Administration had been concerned
for weeks about the possibility of a coup in
Islamabad.
TEXT: For decades, politics in Pakistan have been
turbulent. Powerful army generals have been in and
out of power, ruling the country for nearly half the
time since independence 52 years ago. And, in recent
weeks, Pakistani newspapers had been full of reports
about a widening rift between Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif and the military.
Tuesday's military takeover came soon after the prime
minister announced the removal of his army chief. But
the army's response may have been rooted in Prime
Minister Sharif's decision in July to withdraw
Pakistani-backed militants from the Indian side of
disputed Kashmir province.
Former U-S National Security Council official Shirin
Tahir-Kheli is director of the South Asia Program at
Washington's Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
International Studies.
/// TAHIR-KHELI ACT ///
I think what did happen is that once it began to
go against international opinion, the prime
minister, in order to extricate himself, played
that army card and sort of tried to distance
himself from the operation. Obviously from the
interactions they've had, it has been clear
there was tension there. It was an open secret
in Pakistan that the prime minister was primed
to move against the army chief.
/// END ACT ///
Over the past few weeks, a deteriorating political
climate in Pakistan caught the attention of the
Clinton Administration. Washington sent a message to
Islamabad last month that it would oppose any attempt
to overthrow the Sharif government. The message was
prompted by what U-S officials suggested were signs of
growing dissent against the prime minister.
/// SECOND TAHIR-KHELI ACT ///
After he dismissed the president, the supreme
court justice, the previous army chief, then
people kept quiet saying o-k, now Nawaz Sharif
with a mandate is going to do something. But
time has passed and he hasn't.
/// END ACT ///
How the dismissal of the Sharif government will affect
Pakistan's relations with India is also a top concern.
Last year, the threat of a nuclear exchange in South
Asia increased dramatically when the rival countries
both tested nuclear devices. Michael Krepon is
director of the Stimson Center, an organization in
Washington that follows nuclear issues in South Asia.
/// KREPON ACT ///
Once again, we're looking at a situation where
one government is in place and the other
government is in flux. If we have a caretaker
government coming to power in Pakistan, under
the guidance of a military leadership, it's
going to be hard for a caretaker government of
technocrats to do business with India on very
substantive and sensitive issues.
/// END ACT ///
And, any new government will also have to deal with a
nation that has been pushed close to financial
default.
// OPT // Again, former National Security Council
staffer Shirin Tahir-Kheli
/// THIRD TAHIR-KHELI ACT ///
There's been no coherent economic planning.
Economists who study Pakistan have been alarmed
at what the prospects look like, not even in the
long term but in the very short term.
/// END OPT ACT ///
Most government spending in Pakistan goes to the
military and to debt refinancing, leaving little to
help a country where one out of three people live in
poverty, a rate that is among the highest in Asia.
(SIGNED)
NEB/NJS/JP
12-Oct-1999 17:41 PM EDT (12-Oct-1999 2141 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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