DATE=7/14/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-251749
TITLE=PAKISTAN/KASHMIR (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=AYAZ GUL
DATELINE=ISLAMABAD
CONTENT=
INTRO: PAKISTAN'S PRIME MINISTER, NAWAZ SHARIF, IS UNDER HEAVY
CRITICISM AT HOME FOR PERSUADING ISLAMIC MILITANTS TO WITHDRAW
FROM INDIAN TERRITORY IN KASHMIR. BUT OBSERVERS SAY THERE IS NO
IMMINENT THREAT TO MR. SHARIF'S GOVERNMENT, BECAUSE HE HAS A
LARGE MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT. AYAZ GUL REPORTS FROM ISLAMABAD
THE OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE PROVED INEFFECTIVE IN PINNING DOWN
THE PRIME MINISTER ON HIS KASHMIR POLICY.
TEXT: PRIME MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF'S DECISION TO PULL-BACK
ANTI-INDIA FIGHTERS FROM KASHMIR HAS RECEIVED WIDESPREAD
CONDEMNATION IN PAKISTAN. THE CRITICISM MAINLY HAS COME FROM THE
RIGHT-WING RELIGIOUS PARTIES AND THE KASHMIRI GROUPS WHO HAVE
ACCUSED MR. SHARIF OF BETRAYING THE KASHMIR CAUSE.
PAKISTAN HAS BEEN UNDER INTENSE INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE UNITED STATES, TO WITHDRAW THE
PAKISTANI-BACKED FIGHTERS WHO SEIZED MOUNTAIN POSITIONS IN INDIAN
KASHMIR. THE INCURSION IN EARLY MAY LED TO TENSIONS BETWEEN
INDIA AND PAKISTAN THAT THREATENED TO ESCALATE INTO A FULL-SCALE
WAR.
THE PRESSURE LED THE PAKISTANI PRIME MINISTER, AFTER TALKS WITH
PRESIDENT CLINTON, TO PERSUADE THE GUERRILLAS TO LEAVE INDIAN
TERRITORY.
PROFESSOR KHALID MAHMOOD, OF PAKISTAN'S INSTITUTE OF REGIONAL
STUDIES IN ISLAMABAD, SAYS MR. SHARIF HAS LOST FACE BECAUSE OF
HIS DECISION -- BUT THERE IS NO RISK TO HIS GOVERNMENT.
// MAHMOOD ACT //
THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD RESENTMENT AGAINST IT. BUT I DO NOT SEE
THE CHANCES OF A MASS UPHEAVAL. I PERSONALLY DO NOT SEE ANY
THREAT TO NAWAZ SHARIF'S GOVERNMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. BUT I
SUPPOSE THIS UNPOPULAR DECISION HAS CONSIDERABLY WEEKEND HIS
POSITION AND HE HAS LOST FACE AMONG THE PEOPLE. BECAUSE PEOPLE
SEE THIS ACCORD TO AS SOME PEOPLE WOULD SAY A SELL-OUT, THE
OTHERS WOULD SAY THIS IS A PEACE WITHOUT HONOR OR THIS IS A PEACE
ON INDIAN TERMS.
// END ACT //
THE WITHDRAWAL OF MUJAHIDIN FIGHTERS HAS ALSO PROMPTED A DEBATE
IN PAKISTAN ABOUT WHETHER THE POLITICAL GOVERNMENT OR PAKISTAN'S
MILITARY WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR STARTING THE LATEST CRISIS IN
KASHMIR. BUT MR. MAHMOOD SAYS THE DEBATE IS IRRELEVANT NOW.
// 2ND MAHMOOD ACT //
WHOEVER WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS, THE POPULAR PERCEPTION IS THAT
THE (PAKISTAN) GOVERNMENT GOT COLD FEET AND MOST PEOPLE THINK
THAT IT WAS NOT BECAUSE OF THREAT OF WAR WITH INDIA THAT THE
GOVERNMENT CHICKENED OUT, BUT IT WAS BECAUSE OF THE AMERICAN
PRESSURE.
// END ACT //
PAKISTAN HAS BEEN SEEKING INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION OVER THE
50-YEAR OLD KASHMIR DISPUTE WITH INDIA. ISLAMABAD SAYS THE
RECENT CRISIS IN THE REGION HAS FOCUSED THE WORLD ATTENTION ON
THE ISSUE.
ANALYSTS SAY THERE WILL NOW BE PRESSURE ON NEW DELHI, WHICH
REFUSES TO ALLOW THIRD-PARTY MEDIATION, TO ACCEPT PAKISTAN'S
OFFER OF TALKS ON KASHMIR. SINCE THE STATED POSITIONS ON KASHMIR
OF BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN REMAIN UNCHANGED, MR. MAHMOOD SAYS
CHANCES FOR A SOLUTION OF THE ISSUE IN THE NEAR FUTURE ARE NOT
VERY BRIGHT.
// MAHMOOD ACT //
IF THE AGENDA FOR TALKS ACCORDING TO THE PAKISTANI POINT OF VIEW
IS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SETTLEMENT OF THE KASHMIR PROBLEM, I DO
NOT SEE ANY POSSIBILITY OF A SOLUTION OF THE KASHMIR PROBLEM.
BECAUSE INDIA IS NOT GOING TO ACCEPT ANY OF YOUR (PAKISTANI)
TERMS. THOUGH APPARENTLY WE GO TOWARDS THE CONFERENCE TABLE, BUT
I DO NOT SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE RESUMPTION OF A MEANINGFUL
DIALOGUE BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. A KIND
OF STALEMATE WILL PERSIST (ON KASHMIR).
/// END ACT ///
INDIA CONTROLS MOST OF KASHMIR AND CALLS IT AN INTEGRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. PAKISTAN DISPUTES THIS CLAIM AND SAYS THE PEOPLE IN
THE MOSTLY-MUSLIM REGION SHOULD HAVE THE RIGHT TO DECIDE BETWEEN
JOINING INDIA OR PAKISTAN UNDER A U-N SPONSORED PLEBISCITE. THE
KASHMIR DISPUTE HAS LED TO TWO WARS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN
SINCE THE PARTITION OF BRITISH INDIA IN 1947. (SIGNED)
NEB/AG/RAE
14-Jul-99 11:13 AM EDT (1513 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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