DATE=7/12/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43853
TITLE=THE KASHMIR STRUGGLE
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS THE FIGHTING WINDS DOWN ALONG THE INDIA-PAKISTAN
BORDER IN KASHMIR, FEARS OF AN ALL-OUT WAR HAVE RECEDED. SO HAVE
FEARS -- HOWEVER REMOTE -- OF A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE. BUT THE COMBAT
IN THE HIMALAYAS POINTS UP THE DIFFICULTY OF RESOLVING THE
CONFLICT OVER KASHMIR, AND ISLAMIC MILITANTS PLEDGE THEY WILL
CARRY ON THE FIGHT. CORRESPONDENT ED WARNER REPORTS SOME VIEWS
OF THE CLASH AND WHERE IT MAY LEAD.
TEXT: "WE ARE CLOSER TO GOD HERE, AND IF I DIE FOR MY COUNTRY,
HE WILL TAKE ME."
THAT IS HOW A SOLDIER IN THE HIGH HIMALAYAS DESCRIBES HIS
FEELINGS ABOUT THE CONFLICT OVER KASHMIR. HIS WORDS INDICATE THE
PASSIONS INVOLVED IN THE FIGHTING ALONG THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER
AND WHY IT MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN.
THE TWO COUNTRIES PROVIDE DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE EPISODE.
PAKISTAN SAYS MILITANTS OUTSIDE ITS CONTROL INFILTRATED THE
INDIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER. INDIA SAYS PAKISTANI TROOPS ARE
INVOLVED.
IT IS HARD TO TELL, SAYS STEPHEN COHEN, A SENIOR POLICY ANALYST
AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION IN WASHINGTON:
// COHEN ACT //
IN PAKISTAN, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM OF KNOWING WHO IS IN
CHARGE: WHETHER THIS WAS ORDERED BY THE MILITARY WITH
(PRIME MINISTER) NAWAZ' (SHARIF) CONSENT OR WHETHER
NAWAZ WAS NOT TOLD ANYTHING ABOUT IT.
// END ACT //
THE INFILTRATION NEEDED PAKISTANI ARMY SUPPORT, SAYS TERESITA
SCHAFFER, A FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO SRI LANKA WHO NOW DIRECTS
THE SOUTH ASIA PROGRAM AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON.
BUT SHE ADDS ISLAMIC MILITANTS STRESS THEIR INDEPENDENCE AND
OPPOSE THE PLAN TO END THE FIGHTING:
// SCHAFFER ACT //
A NUMBER OF MUJAHEDIN GROUPS AND THEIR POLITICAL FRIENDS
HAVE SHARPLY PROTESTED THE PAKISTANI DECISION TO TELL
THEM TO RETURN. SOME HAVE GONE SO FAR AS TO SAY: "HE
(PRIME MINISTER SHARIF) CAN NOT BOSS US AROUND. WE ARE
NOT GOING TO DO IT."
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR SCHAFFER SAYS KASHMIR IS A UNIFYING ISSUE AT A TIME OF
ETHNIC AND ECONOMIC DISCONTENT IN PAKISTAN. THE NATION'S NEWLY
ACQUIRED NUCLEAR WEAPONS MAY HAVE EMBOLDENED IT TO TEST INDIA'S
RESOLVE.
ACCORDING TO STEPHEN COHEN, PAKISTANIS BELIEVE THEY HAVE ACHIEVED
STRATEGIC PARITY WITH INDIA:
// COHEN ACT //
SO I THINK THE ASSUMPTION THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS MEAN AN
END TO CONFLICT IS NOT QUITE RIGHT. I THINK IT MEANS AN
END TO LARGE SCALE CONFLICT, BUT CONFLICT BETWEEN THE
TWO COUNTRIES HAS GONE ON AT A LOWER LEVEL FOR MANY
YEARS AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE FUTURE.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR SCHAFFER NOTES INTERNATIONAL OPINION IS IMPORTANT TO
PAKISTAN BECAUSE IT NEEDS OUTSIDE SUPPORT FOR ITS POSITION ON
KASHMIR; NAMELY, THAT IT WAS UNFAIRLY DEPRIVED OF THE LARGELY
MUSLIM REGION AT THE 1947 PARTITION OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN.
BUT SHE BELIEVES PAKISTAN MAY HAVE MISCALCULATED WITH THE BORDER
CROSSING, WHICH HAS NOT MET WITH APPROVAL ABROAD:
// SCHAFFER ACT //
YOU HAVE TO WONDER AT THIS POINT: SUPPOSE PAKISTAN WERE
SUCCESSFUL IN PERSUADING THE OUTSIDE WORLD TO TAKE A
MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN TRYING TO MOVE ITS RELATIONS WITH
INDIA FORWARD? WOULD THAT HELP PAKISTAN GET THE PRIZE
THAT HAS ELUDED IT FOR 50-YEARS? I AM NOT SO SURE. I
THINK INTERNATIONAL OPINION HAS SHIFTED.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR SCHAFFER THINKS THE HIMALAYAS GAMBLE WAS MISTAKEN,
BOTH IN MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC TERMS. BUT SHE ADDS THAT DOES
NOT RELIEVE INDIA OF THE NEED TO IMPROVE ITS GOVERNMENT IN
KASHMIR AND START A POLITICAL PROCESS THAT WILL ENGAGE THE MUSLIM
POPULATION. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RAE
12-Jul-99 11:10 AM EDT (1510 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
