DATE=7/10/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43847
TITLE=THE KASHMIR STRUGGLE
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: HEAVY FIGHTING ALONG THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER HAS SET
BACK ANY RESOLUTION OF THE LONG STANDING DISPUTE OVER KASHMIR. IT
HAS ALSO RAISED ALARM OVER THE POSSIBILITY -- HOWEVER REMOTE --
OF A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE IN CASE THE TWO COUNTRIES GET INTO ALL-OUT
WAR. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS ON SOME VIEWS OF THE CONFLICT AND
WHERE IT MAY LEAD.
TEXT: "WE ARE CLOSER TO GOD HERE, AND IF I DIE FOR MY COUNTRY,
HE WILL TAKE ME."
THAT IS HOW A SOLDIER IN THE HIGH HIMALAYAS DESCRIBES HIS
FEELINGS ABOUT THE CONFLICT OVER KASHMIR BETWEEN INDIA AND
PAKISTAN. HIS WORDS SUGGEST THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO END THE
FIGHTING THAT HAS BROKEN OUT ALONG THE LINE OF CONTROL SEPARATING
THE TWO COUNTRIES' FORCES.
EACH GOVERNMENT DESCRIBES DIFFERENTLY THE FORCES WHO CROSSED THE
LINE TO ENGAGE THE INDIAN TROOPS. PAKISTAN SAYS THEY ARE
MILITANTS OUTSIDE ITS CONTROL. INDIA SAYS THEY ARE UNDER
PAKISTANI DIRECTION.
IT IS HARD TO TELL, SAYS STEPHEN COHEN, A SENIOR POLICY ANALYST
AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION IN WASHINGTON, WHO NOTES THE
INFILTRATORS COULD BE BEYOND THE CONTROL OF PAKISTAN'S PRIME
MINISTER, NAWAZ SHARIF:
// COHEN ACT //
IN PAKISTAN, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM OF KNOWING WHO IS IN
CHARGE: WHETHER THIS WAS ORDERED BY THE MILITARY WITH
(PRIME MINISTER) NAWAZ' (SHARIF) CONSENT OR WHETHER
NAWAZ WAS NOT TOLD ANYTHING ABOUT IT. WHETHER HE CAN
GET THEM TO PULL BACK OR NOT - THAT IS NOT QUITE CLEAR
AT ALL.
// END ACT //
THE INFILTRATION COULD NOT HAVE OCCURRED WITHOUT PAKISTANI ARMY
SUPPORT, SAYS TERESITA SCHAFFER, A FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO SRI
LANKA WHO NOW DIRECTS THE SOUTH ASIA PROGRAM AT THE CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. SHE ADDS THE
INCURSION NEEDS ARMY SUPPORT TO CONTINUE:
// SCHAFFER ACT //
SO EXACTLY WHAT THE GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN TELLS THE
ARMY TO DO IS GOING TO BE CRITICAL. IT MAY BE A
SITUATION WHERE IT IS EASIER TO START THAN TO STOP. A
NUMBER OF MUJAHIDIN GROUPS AND THEIR POLITICAL FRIENDS
HAVE SHARPLY PROTESTED THE PAKISTANI DECISION TO TELL
THEM TO RETURN. SOME HAVE GONE SO FAR AS TO SAY: "HE
(PRIME MINISTER SHARIF) CAN NOT BOSS US AROUND. WE ARE
NOT GOING TO DO IT."
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR SCHAFFER SAYS KASHMIR IS A UNIFYING ISSUE AT A TIME OF
ETHNIC AND ECONOMIC DISCONTENT IN PAKISTAN. AND THE NATION'S
NEWLY ACQUIRED NUCLEAR WEAPONS MAY HAVE EMBOLDENED IT TO TEST
INDIA'S RESOLVE.
ACCORDING TO STEPHEN COHEN, PAKISTANIS BELIEVE THEY HAVE ACHIEVED
STRATEGIC PARITY WITH INDIA:
// COHEN ACT //
SO I THINK THE ASSUMPTION THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS MEAN AN
END TO CONFLICT IS NOT QUITE RIGHT. I THINK IT MEANS AN
END TO LARGE SCALE CONFLICT, BUT CONFLICT BETWEEN THE
TWO COUNTRIES HAS GONE ON AT A LOWER LEVEL FOR MANY
YEARS AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE FUTURE.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR SCHAFFER NOTES INTERNATIONAL OPINION IS IMPORTANT TO
PAKISTAN BECAUSE IT NEEDS OUTSIDE SUPPORT FOR ITS POSITION ON
KASHMIR; NAMELY, THAT IT WAS UNFAIRLY DEPRIVED OF THE LARGELY
MUSLIM REGION AT THE 1947 PARTITION OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN.
BUT SHE BELIEVES PAKISTAN MAY HAVE MISCALCULATED WITH THE BORDER
CROSSING, WHICH HAS NOT MET WITH APPROVAL ABROAD:
// SCHAFFER ACT //
YOU HAVE TO WONDER AT THIS POINT: SUPPOSE PAKISTAN WERE
SUCCESSFUL IN PERSUADING THE OUTSIDE WORLD TO TAKE A
MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN TRYING TO MOVE ITS RELATIONS WITH
INDIA FORWARD? WOULD THAT HELP PAKISTAN GET THE PRIZE
THAT HAS ELUDED IT FOR FIFTY YEARS? I AM NOT SO SURE. I
THINK INTERNATIONAL OPINION HAS SHIFTED.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR SCHAFFER CONSIDERS THE HIMALAYAS GAMBLE A POLICY
FAILURE, BOTH IN MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC TERMS. BUT SHE ADDS THAT
DOES NOT RELIEVE INDIA OF THE NEED TO IMPROVE ITS GOVERNMENT IN
KASHMIR AND START A POLITICAL PROCESS THAT WILL ENGAGE THE MUSLIM
POPULATION. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/KL
10-Jul-99 3:29 PM EDT (1929 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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