Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "Ghauri Missile--India In Denial"

Strategic affairs editor C. Raja Mohan penned this analysis for the centrist Hindu (4/9): "India appears frightened by its own shadow and paralyzed into inaction by the fears of an adverse international reaction to its own missile tests.... If the assessment is that the Ghauri flight test did take place, the immediate question is where did Pakistan get the technology and components from? Almost reflexively, Indians lashed out at China and made demands on Washington to take it up with Beijing. To be sure, there has been a long record of China's nuclear and missile cooperation with Pakistan...but does that necessarily mean China is involved with the Ghauri? While highlighting the China link, New Delhi may not have paid enough attention in the recent years to see if there has been a change in the pattern of Pakistan's missile technology procurement from an earlier reliance on Beijing to a search for other sources.... Here again, the U.S. State Department has given a hint.... Although (State Department spokesperson James) Foley did not name the supplier, there have been straws in the wind suggesting a significant North Korean role in the building of Ghauri. The few details that Pakistan has put out on Ghauri seem to match the profile to the Nodong-II missile that has been developed by North Korea and apparently first tested in 1995.... (The Indian government's) claim that Ghauri poses no threat is incredulous when there is a real possibility that North Korea might have transferred the entire production process to Pakistan.... The time has come for the (India) government to end the dissimulation on the Agni. It owes the country an explanation on two counts. Why has Agni been derailed? Why did India sleep for four years when Pakistan was fast catching up on the missile front?"

"Logic Of Deterrence"

An editorial in the centrist Statesman stressed (4/9): "The predictable has happened, Pakistan has test-fired an intermediate range missile called Ghauri, a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads and hitting important Indian cities. There is no point in asking whether the Chinese helped them. Secondly, does it increase the threat to India's security? Theoretically, yes, but then theoretically we should have blown each other to smithereens several times over by now but all the skirmishing in Siachen and along the Line of Control has not escalated into a full-fledged war. No, this missile is just part of the logic of deterrence that has set in durably between India and Pakistan and which, barring lunacy, will gradually foreclose the possibility of all major armed conflicts in the region in the foreseeable future. That is, a deterrence scenario will unfold, India will in all probability carry out further tests on the Agni and move towards some kind of deployment.... Even if the present government were to go ahead and induct nuclear weapons it would not really give us any decisive edge over Pakistan, unless it were willing to see a few Indian cities disappear from the map in the process. A little sanity in the debate replacing hysterics will do everyone on both sides a lot of good."

"Hold Your Fire!"

Under the above headline, Calcutta's centrist Telegram judged (4/9): "The Ghauri launch seems to have been timed with two ends, both political. One is Nawaz Sharif's agenda: Send notice to the Bharatiya Janata Party that he will not quail in the face of any Hindutva saber-rattling. The other is Beijing's agenda.... China's support for Pakistan's missile program is driven by the larger gambit played between Beijing and Washington. The United States is just about to start negotiations over what it will take to persuade Beijing to change its maverick policies on missiles and nuclear weapons.... The primitive response would be to take the Agni out of storage.... The best response would be diplomatic: Lessen friction with Beijing and initiate a dialog with Sharif."

"The Ghauri Menace"

Pundit K. Subrahmanyam said this (4/9) in the "Global Watch" column of the pro-economic reforms Economic Times and in the centrist Times of India: "The Pakistani claim to have produced an indigenous 'Ghauri' missile...has to be taken with a shovelful of salt. No country has fired its first test missile over its own territory as Pakistan claims to have done from Jhelum into Baluchistan. This demonstrates that it was a proven missile either of Chinese or North Korean origin. Nor has Pakistan displayed any technological capability to produce such a missile.... Pakistan may have, for reasons that have surfaced very recently, decided to defy the United States and test the missile.... Soundings in Beijing may have reassured the Pakistanis that the United States will buy the story of its being an indigenously developed missile and not impose sanctions on Pakistan or China.... The missile may also be of North Korean origin. In that event, too, the United States' responsibility for permitting the proliferation will be significant. North Korea depends on the United States for food imports to alleviate famine conditions and the supply of fuel for construction of a light water reactor.

"Therefore, India has to act on the assumption that missile proliferation in Pakistan is taking place with full U.S. connivance, as happened in respect of the nuclear proliferation in Pakistan between 1987-90.... Ghauri and India's response to it will not amount to an arms race between India and Pakistan.... Our worry should be about Chinese motivation on this proliferation to Pakistan...and U.S. motivation on conniving at this proliferation. Some U.S. officials are to visit India shortly. Before they start preaching to us about the virtues of non-proliferation, we have to raise the issue of U.S. connivance on this proliferation. India should also lobby with the senators and congressmen in the United States on the Chinese proliferation even as President Clinton's certification on China's not proliferating is under consideration by the U.S. Congress."

"Ghauri Puts Arm Race On U.S. Panel's Agenda"

Diplomatic correspondent Apratim Mukarji held in an editorial in the centrist Hindustan TImes (4/9): "Pakistan has clearly managed to overshadow the high-level U.S. delegation's visit to the sub-continent next week by test-firing its intermediate range ballistic 'Ghauri' missile.... (That) Bill Richardson, Karl Inderfurth and Bruce Riedel (were to) have held vital discussions in New Delhi and Islamabad next week now stands dramatically changed. As foreign diplomats accredited to India see it, the U.S. agenda for reducing tension in the subcontinent and persuading India and Pakistan to take a softer stand towards the two non-proliferation treaties has now been rendered much more complex than before....

"The three senior U.S. officials are expected to make a strong pitch for the resumption of the stalled talks as an obvious tension reduction measure.... It would be difficult for the Clinton administration to accept a situation where its leverage would appear to have been reduced significantly by developments in the sub-continent. By asking both India and Pakistan to show restraint and thus clearly equating them, the United States seems to be risking its leverage as the sole superpower."

"Ghauri Plays Spoilsport In Sino-Indian Relationship"

The centrist Times of India ran this assessment (4/9) by assistant editor Seema Guha: "India's gradually warming ties with China are likely to receive a setback with Pakistan's testing of the Ghauri missile on Monday.... New Delhi's defense establishment believes that China has been providing technological know-how for Pakistan's missile program Defense Minister George Fernandes, refrained from directly naming China, but the implications are rather clear. India is likely to raise the issue with the United States, when Bill Richardson and Karl Inderfurth arrive in India next week. If New Delhi is looking to Washington for support on this, it is unlikely to get any....

"The Clinton administration is all geared up for the president's visit to China in June. The United States is not likely to take any steps to damage the impact of this high-profile visit. By denying foolproof evidence of Chinese help to Pakistan, President Clinton's government can keep sanctions against China at bay.... China is, however, unlikely to take India's criticism lightly. Successive governments in New Delhi have refrained from publicly taking on China, not wishing to jeopardize the ongoing border talks with Beijing. Fernandes, however has showed no such restraint. So far China has not reacted to Fernandes, but the Chinese, known for their tough talking, are unlikely to remain mum for long."

"The Missile Race"

The nationalist Hindustan Times' editorial stated (4/8): "Ghauri, in all probability, is nothing but a red intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) from Beijing's missile menagerie, cleverly painted green and christened 'Hatf' after the Holy Prophet's sword.... Pakistan has always sought to legitmize its Chinese-aided missile program as an indigenous effort in order to sidestep proliferation control policies like the missile technology control regime (MTCR). China, of course, considers proliferation to countries like Pakistan as an effective way of fashioning leverage vis-a-vis the United States, and both Beijing and Islamabad have obviously been leading apprehensive American arms control experts on wild goose chases in this part of the world....

"New Delhi should now wake up to the fact that it cannot afford to back-pedal on its integrated guided-missile development program. The absence of a missile deterrent force in India's defense armory is too glaring and having foresworn its chemical and biological options, the only way for India now to correct this would be by building appropriate delivery systems.... Now that a not-too-friendly Pakistan has neutralized the strategic depth of peninsular India with 'Ghauri,' the obvious option for this country would be to achieve credible deterrence in the form of a miniaturized non-conventional warhead atop a deployed Agni."

"Ghauri's Invasion"

The centrist Pioneer told its readers (4/8): "The reported test firing of the Ghauri missile by Pakistan raises more questions than it answers. First, there is only Pakistan's word that it was indeed test fired. There is no independent authentication so far.... Having said that, it must be pointed out that Pakistan had, through its Urdu-language press, leaked this intention more than a month ago. Moreover, it is common knowledge that the parentage of all Pakistani missiles is Chinese. In the case of Ghauri, there could be some North Korean element as well. This being the underlying truth, it follows that Pakistan need not test fire these missiles in order to determine their efficacy.... None of this, however, takes away from the fact that Ghauri brings more of India's territory than ever before within Pakistan's malevolent strike capability.... India will have to evolve a method to put the Pakistani problem in the proper perspective, without letting it cast an unnecessary overshadow. But perhaps some further refinements or modifications to the Prithvi need to be considered to enhance its lethal capacity. That would help call Pakistan's bluff more effectively."

"Words Of War"

The centrist Asian Age expressed this view (4/8): "Defense Minister George Fernandes has clearly opted for the language of war. There is no other way to explain his deliberate and very strong reaction to the Ghauri missile fired by Pakistan. He further attacked China as being the country behind the missile. Such grave allegations from the defense minister are an indication of the things to come. Pakistan's decision to fire the missile is of some concern, but then so is India's commitment to the Prithvi and the Agni. All this war talk and missile programs add to the tension in the region, besides escalating the arms race, which should be a cause of serious concern to the governments concerned....

"The U.S. aministration has decided to maintain a studied silence on the issue, not because it is not apprehensive of what is going on, but because it has left it to Pakistan to react for the moment. Fernandes's statement will ensure that the benefit of the doubt being accorded to India becomes suspect in the United States' eyes, and it will not be long before there is a major reaction against the government line. Judging from Fernandes's deliberate outburst, the distance between the two countries will increase, under this government, despite Vajpayee's insistence that there will be continuity in foreign policy."

"Pakistan Returns BJP Nuke Fire"

An analysis in the centrist Telegraph by its New Delhi special correspondent judged (4/7): "Pakistan's claim of having successfully developed and tested the...(Ghauri) missile appears aimed at assuring its people and telling...India that the Nawaz Sharif government is in a position to take care of its national interests in any eventuality.... The BJP-led coalition's reluctance to readily react to the issue is not difficult to understand. The BJP is perceived as a 'Hindu-hardliners' party,' and it might be not be willing to engage in a polemical battle with 'Muslim-dominated' Pakistan.... There is virtually no chance of Pakistan's manufacturing an intermediate-range ballistic missile, equivalent to India's Agni, and it is probably a Chinese missile, at best assembled in Pakistan.... Even assuming Ghauri was not tested, the Chinese missile, still to be identified, will be a threat."

"BJP Coalition And Nuclear Policy: Dialogue Only Way To Peace"

Under the headline above, an editorial-page article by professor Arun Banerjee of the School of International Relations and Strategic Studies, Jadavpur University, ran (4/7) in centrist, Bengali-language Ananda Bazar Patrika: "What can be said without doubt is that if India declared it will develop nuclear arms, Indo-Pakistan relations will deteriorate, and it will spark off an arms race between the two countries. Such a decision will also be detrimental for Indo-U.S. relations, which in turn will jeopardize the economic relations, the transfer of developed technology between the two countries, in particular.... On the other hand, is it possible for India, under present circumstances, to bear the huge expenditure required for building a real nuclear defense against China?...

"Therefore, rather than thinking of developing a nuclear defense, it is desirable to make efforts for improving Indo-China and Indo-Pakistan relations through dialogue.... Vajpayee is an astute leader, and these questions would be considered, hopefully, before reviewing India's nuclear policy."

"Subcontinent And The Nuclear Race"

An editorial in Hyderabad's independent, Urdu-language Siasat held (4/1): "The United States has once again cautioned India and Pakistan against manufacturing nuclear weapons.... American concern might have been prompted by the competing announcements by Pakistan and India of their respective intentions of test-firing the long-range Ghauri missile and keeping the nuclear option open. While omitting other controversial issues from its national agenda, the BJP government caused many apprehensions by constituting a security panel for a nuclear policy review. The nuclear program is an extremely sensitive issue, with serious implications for global peace.... It is strange, however, that the United States had nothing to say to China while cautioning India and Pakistan. China is not only a major nuclear power in the region, but is also helping Pakistan in its nuclear quest. Moreover, it is not fair to apply the same yardstick to India and Pakistan as their nuclear approaches are fundamentally different.... The nuclear issue...calls for a very responsible approach; we must guard against any action which could cause undue doubts and misgivings."

"The Agenda Behind The 'Hidden Agenda'"

The centrist Times of India had this analysis (4/3) by senior editor M.D. Nalapat: "Thanks to the din created by the many who are talking of the 'hidden agenda' of the BJP, few are paying attention to the quiet campaign that has accelerated sharply since the election results put the saffron formation ahead of the others. The objective of this is to get the BJP to either shelve its commitment to the nuclear option, or throw it out via the enticing of a dozen or more of the present supporters of the Vajpayee government in parliament.... Thanks to the realization that the political class in India has been spineless when it comes to taking tough decisions, both China and Pakistan have continued their clandestine war on India. Beijing has transferred technology to Islamabad, aware that Washington and New Delhi will do nothing other than make protests for the record....

"In case New Delhi does not have the stomach for a policy of hot pursuit, the least that needs to be done to convey a message that it is no longer paralyzed in the face of the covert war is to speed up the Agni program and the induction of Prithvi. This needs to be followed by open development of the nuclear deterrent. Should Washington not make available sufficient data, there will be no option but to go in for a limited number of tests to refine the deterrent. As for the threat of sanctions, should this lead to financial pain, then windows will need to be found for generating funds through the sale of Indian technology to countries that will not pose strategic threats to India in future. Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, Oman and Bahrain are some of these states. Even in the event of sanctions, New Delhi needs to retain a responsible posture towards proliferation of technology. It cannot adopt the Beijing-Pyongyang approach of letting the market decide where technology should be allowed to flow."

"Nuclear Hype"

According to the centrist Times of India's editorial (4/1): "That Pakistan would want to draw mileage from the mention in the BJP's 'national agenda of governance' about 'exercising the option to induct nuclear weapons' was expected.... Even if the BJP had opted to abjure nuclear weapons, Islamabad would have denounced it as a cunning plot to disarm Pakistan, take away its nuclear deterrent and assert Indian supremacy in conventional armaments.... Some of (our politicians) have expressed deep concern about an arms race initiated by Pakistan without realizing that Islamabad is already acquiring missile and nuclear capabilities as quickly as it can, and cannot step up the pace without courting economic disaster."

"Believing One Thing, Doing Another"

Bombay's independent, left-of-center Free Press Journal had this editorial comment (3/30): "If retired men from the forces were attracted in droves to the BJP it had a lot to do with the party's very clear and firm stand on the country's defense.... Our failure to keep up with the changing times meant that China, which started out about the same time as us, went nuclear with a vengeance and is now a superpower, whereas we have not been able to fully safeguard our own borders. The nuclear option was and still remains our only hope to defend ourselves from physical attack and verbal blackmail, like the one resorted to by the United States to get us [to] sign such biased and unequal treaties as the CTBT and the NPT.... Today the United States has the upper hand in relations with India. They extend their strong arm tactics even to the sphere of business.... Nuclear weapons are the only bargaining chips the United States recognizes....

"The BJP was attractive to many for its aggressive stand on exercising the nuclear option. One thought that the country could regain some pride with the BJP in power. By stating that they will retain the nuclear option but not actually exercise it in the near future, the new leaders are letting down their supporters. Clinton plans to visit India in September, to try and shove the CTBT down our throats, no doubt. His preparation includes persuading the U.S. Congress to ratify it. Ours should be to prepare the grounds for a consensus on going nuclear.

"This will enable the prime minister to present our case for a seat in the Security Council forcefully or else we can expect Clinton to bulldoze us again."

"India And Its Strategic Options"

The centrist Pioneer featured this commentary (3/26) by Dipankar Banerjee, deputy director of the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses: "The true state of the global order may be better described as one of 'asymmetric multipolarity'. Even though the United States may be the leader, there is role and space for regional powers. The challenge before India is to become one and establish co-operative partnerships with others in order to further its own national interests. While framing our options, it is important to remember that there are no fundamental divergence of interests between the United States and India. What divides us is prejudice and ignorance. Enlightened self-interest would show the way....

"What is needed in our approach to China now is to resolve outstanding issues, strengthen friendship and simultaneously remain cautiously prepared. Next is Pakistan. It will be unduly optimistic to expect that differences between India and Pakistan can be dealt with easily in the near future.... An approach recommended to deal with this relationship is constant vigilance combined with benign neglect.... While keeping both hands extended in friendship, it will be prudent for India to maintain at a high state of readiness adequate conventional deterrent capabilities."

"The BJP's Agenda"

Bhabani Sen Gupta of the Centre for Policy Research judged in the nationalist Hindustan Times (3/26): "The BJP's decision to churn out a national review of India's nuclear policy is a step in the right direction. The review, however, must have due representation of those who do not favor weapons proliferation.... If...Vajpayee determines that India be a nuclear power, he cannot deny the same status to Pakistan if Pakistanis too want their country to go nuclear. His dismissal of adverse reactions of the external powers including the United States and Japan need not be taken as more than timely bravado. If India goes nuclear, it will have to pay the price.... It is a long and expensive road to that goal, and the lifespan of the BJP government must necessarily be too short for it."

"Pakistan Atom Bomb And India"

Editor K. Narendra wrote in pro-BJP daily Pratap (3/25): "A sizeable number of people in the country, and I am one of them, is in favor of India's making nuclear weapons. To ensure the security of the country and to counter the Pakistani blackmail on the issue, India should not only be capable of making bombs, but must have them ready. To make a bomb and to use it are actually two distinct things.... The argument against making nuclear weapons by India on the pretext that Pakistan will never be able to use its bomb is based on hollow reasoning and on the ignorance of the real mental make-up in Pakistan, especially of its military.... Hitler would not have dared to invade The Soviet Union and occupy its territories had the latter armed itself effectively... India should be wise enough to get itself ready for any eventuality instead of waiting for Pakistan to actually start using its warheads.... It is an entirely different matter that we will not take a lead in using such a bomb."

"Vajpayee Government's Agenda Risks Isolating India"

An editorial in Hyderabad's independent, Urdu-language daily Siasat stressed (3/22): "The (BJP's) intentions of developing nuclear weapons and putting them at the military's disposal will lead to fierce controversy, not only within the country, but also at the international level. A policy of making nuclear weapons as also deploying them will have serious repercussions for the country, distorting basic features of our long-pursued foreign policy and isolating India among the world community."

PAKISTAN: "Ghauri: Pakistan's Answer To Indian Missiles"

The top story throughout the daily press in Pakistan (4/7) was of the news that Pakistan yesterday announced the successful test of a medium-range ballistic missile, known as the "Ghauri." In both the English and the Urdu press, banner headlines, enthusiastic front-page commentary and a wealth of sidebar stories all signal overwhelming media support for what is described by a sub-head in the centrist national News as "Pakistan's answer to Indian missiles" and in a front-page commentary by the editor of Islamabad's rightist, English-language Pakistan Observer as "Sharif's Eid Gift To The Nation."

"Congratulations To The Pakistani Nation!"

An editorial in second-largest, Urdu-language Nawa-e-Waqt declared (4/7): "After humbling Japan and thus subduing it, the United States' greatest desire is to frustrate and upset China, although it will not succeed in doing so.... China is on the rise as an important third power in the region, and Western states, including America, are so afraid that it will establish a regional supremacy that they are acting as India's patron and preparing it as a bulwark against China. On the other side, using this same pretext, India is busily acquiring more and more weapons from the United States and other Western countries, claiming they are for defensive use against China, while, in fact, they will use these weapons to bully Pakistan and the other smaller regional neighbors.... The successful test of the Ghauri missile is very encouraging and restores hope to the people of Pakistan. At the same time, it speaks volumes about the promise of Pakistan's developing missile and satellite programs. After this successful test, we and our entire nation extend our congratulations to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and all those who worked to develop this missile. Now, Nawaz Sharif only has to wait and see how President Clinton greets him."

"Two Reports"

Javed Siddiq, managing editor of Islamabad's popular, Urdu-language daily Ausaf, penned this op-ed view (4/7): "There are two important news reports today for newspaper readers: one is the test of the Ghauri missile and the other is the release of Ayyaz Baloch.... Pakistan released Ayaz Baloch under great pressure from the United States and at the very same time test-fired the Ghauri missile. If the missile test has been carried out as a result of a deal with the United States, it is not a bad deal. But if the test of Ghauri was timed with the release of Ayyaz Baloch only in the fond hope that the United States might react less sharply to the test, it is another matter, and we shall simply have to wait and see just how the United States reacts to the missile test."

"Pakistan-India Trade"

The center-right Nation editorialized (3/31): "India's hegemonic style in the economic field may deter regional economic development and growth potential, as instead of bilateral trade of primary and semi-finished goods which are favourable for all, the Indians are not even willing to talk on the issue. They insist on trading finished goods, particularly consumer items, in their bid to protect their highly subsidised industry. The present government is striving to open a land trade route with India for greater mobility and there has been talk about putting the Kashmir issue on a back burner while promoting bilateral trade relations. To open free trade with India without providing necessary safeguards or taking the business community into confidence has been the main reason for our trade deficit. Therefore, while an effort to ease tension between the neighbours is to be condoned, it is nevertheless imperative that India's long term goals for the Pakistan economy be kept in view and bilateral trade be kept to the absolute minimum, on a mutually beneficial basis only."

"Waiting For Clinton"

In his regular op-ed feature column, "Letter from the USA," Hasan Ali Shahzeb wrote for the centrist national daily News (3/31): "U.S. President Bill Clinton is now visiting some of the most neglected African countries. He could have been visiting South Asian countries around this time if the political scene in India had not changed.... The whole idea of the visit to the region revolved around India; Pakistan was just an added attraction. The reasons are obvious. India is gradually drawing greater attention in U.S. foreign policy... (Because of) its huge middle class, (India) is an extremely attractive marketplace.... U.S. authorities insist that President Clinton's visit to the region is still on the cards for the calendar year 1998, most likely September."

"Our Eastern Peril"

Under the above headline, the centrist daily News featured this op-ed piece (3/25) by Tanvir Ahmad Khan: "Given BJP's hawkish retired generals and brigadiers, it is not difficult to predict the drift of thinking in the proposed National Security Council. The CTBT episode shows that India is not unduly sensitive to international, more specifically U.S., displeasure; such disapproval would be part of decision-making calculus but not as a consequential factor.... Pakistan's diplomacy, traditionally geared to the idealistic objective of a nuclear-free South Asia, should attach equal importance to a practical, working nuclear regime with India that builds upon the existing understanding on non-attack on nuclear installations. This would eliminate possibilities of conflict by error, misperception and miscalculation. Pakistan should also seek greater participation by the U.S.-led international community in efforts to resolve outstanding issues, including Kashmir, the principal flashpoint, in order to prevent an arms race."

"U.S. Should Take Good Notice"

Leading, mass circulation Urdu-language Jang wrote (3/22): "The United States should take good notice of India's nuclear program. The United States cut off economic and military assistance to Pakistan using the excuse of its nuclear program. Meanwhile, India's new government gives clear indications in its policy statement that it will continue with its own nuclear program and the U.S. State Department has yet to express any real concern about it. American leadership is somehow unable to consider with any sympathy the very real threats to Pakistan's security or to keep Pakistan's reasonable defense needs in view. Keeping Pakistan weak militarily and giving India the option to produce whatever weapon it wants is violates every principle of justice."

"Time To Review Our Nuclear Policy"

Leading, mass-circulation Urdu-language Jang commented (3/21): "The first target of India's nuclear weapons and missiles could only be Pakistan. So in view of Bhartia Janata Party's prior intentions and open enmity, Pakistan should pay due attention to its nationalist agenda and review Pakistan's own nuclear policy to assure that it, in fact, meets its national security needs, rather than caving in to pressure from the major powers. If the need to review our nuclear policy is neglected...or delayed, our crucial ability to keep our options open will end."

"Wisdom Behind Nuclear Restraint"

Peshawar-based independent Frontier Post wrote (3/21): "There are people in Pakistan who believe that the outside world can do little to dissuade India from activating its nuclear potential in the real sense. They would also want Pakistan to follow suit. This is flawed and dangerous thinking. We believe that Islamabad's interests would be best served by a policy of nuclear restraint.... Pakistan should maintain a sensible wait-and-see posture."

BANGLADESH: "Indo-Pakistan Nuclear Fears"

In the editorial opinion of the independent Bangladesh Observer (3/30): "Insofar as the nuclear menace is concerned, both India and Pakistan are in an interesting position--and posture: Both now have the technology. And that has, blissfully, proved a deterrent to a fourth war between them. Cynically, that state may be allowed to continue. But the compulsive need is for a real initiative to emerge from the India side, both for the technology and the actual manufacture of nuclear weapons to become a thing of the past. And that could come from a special sub-continental peace and anti-nuclear policy signed and implemented. More than a ray of hope, however, can be deciphered--Newaz Sharif's overtures for better relations matched by Vajpayee's response. Of which he alone among his compatriots seem capable."

"Cold War In The Subcontinent"

Pro-government, Bangla-language Janakantha stressed (3/29): "Optimists say that the BJP-led government is making boastful announcements to score cheap popularity points in domestic politics. Some say that the new Indian government will not be able to develop nuclear weapons due to international pressure...(or) pressure (from) its alliance partners. The Pakistani foreign minister has termed the Indian policy not only a threat to Pakistan's security, but also a regional and international problem.... In fact, a cold war-like situation has arisen in the South Asian region. Bangladesh, for geographical reasons, faces danger if a warlike situation arises between the countries.... Therefore, a regional initiative to reduce tension has become imperative."

SRI LANKA: "High-Level Visits"

According to the independent, English-language Island (4/8): "Ambassador Richardson and Assistant Secretary of State Inderfurth's visits are a part of the U.S. efforts to improve ties with South Asian countries. Ambassador Richardson, also a member of the U.S. National Security Council, is one of the highest ranking U.S. officials to visit Sri Lanka."

"Nuclear Tensions"

Ameen Izadeen emphasized in a commentary in the English-language, independent Midweek Mirror (3/25): "But there is also gloom when the national agenda speaks of a review of India's nuclear policy, including considering the option to build nuclear weapons. Pakistan has warned India that such a move would rekindle the arms race in the subcontinent."

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

AUSTRALIA: "India Swings To An Ominous Course"

Melbourne's liberal Age said (3/23): "We must hope that under Mr Vajpayee's leadership and other restraining influences, the BJP can moderate its potentially perilous policies. Many Indians who voted for it would be content if it concentrated on its promise to diminish the corruption that blights Indian government and business. If the Hindu tradition of tolerance can overcome the BJP's militancy, then peaceful pragmatism may prevail. But this is going to be an anxious time for India and the world."

"Cool Heads Needed On Nuclear Plan"

The liberal Canberra Times' editorial held (3/20): "It didn't take long for the new Hindu nationalist coalition to announce that it had revived plans to make India a fully-fledged nuclear state.... At a time when nuclear powers are trying, with varying degrees of sincerity, to remove nuclear weapons from the face of the planet, India's announcement acts as a raspberry from the sidelines.... The world can only hope that the voices of reason and peace prevail."

CHINA: "Changes"

Chen Xin noted in Official Chinese Youth Party China Youth Daily (Zhongguo Qingnianbao, 3/23): "The comeback of the Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party puts a new question mark on the political future of India, which has changed its prime minister three times within a year."

THAILAND: "Hope That India, Pakistan Can Agree"

The lead editorial of the top-circulation, moderately conservative Bangkok Post commented (4/3): "Mr. Vajpayee has refused to backtrack nearly enough on nuclear weapons.... He insists India must keep its nuclear option open. This is only a slight retreat from his election promise to build a nuclear weapons stockpile. No neighbor doubts India's ability to do this. Indeed, the fear is that New Delhi will proceed with this terrible plan.... What is needed on the sub-continent in general, and in India specifically, is a little more reason and much less rhetoric. India's nationalists may be all for making the nation a nuclear power. But this would diminish India in the world's eyes. It would also, of course, greatly increase the chances of a terrible war in Asia. India and Pakistan's neighbors hope the two countries can reduce tensions, rather than contribute to them."

"India's Nuclear Option Will Fuel Proliferation"

The independent, English-language Nation editorialized: (3/22), "That India now vowed that it would keep its nuclear option open again highlights the impotence of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Indeed, India is right--the NPT is seriously flawed. Of all international treaties, the NPT must stand as one which is the most unjust. The treaty accords unequal rights and imposes unequal obligations to all nations. It gives the nuclear five...the unchallengeable right to maintain their nuclear stockpiles while banning others from developing them. Surely, who would heed the nuclear powers' demand not to develop nuclear weapons when these countries have thousands of them? It is this double standard which is being exploited by India and other nuclear wannabes. The only solution to this impasse is complete nuclear disarmament. The proposition that nuclear weapons can be retained forever and never used--either accidentally or intentionally--def1ies credibility. The only complete defense is the total elimination of nuclear weapons and the assurance that they will never be produced again."

EUROPE

BRITAIN: "Nuclear Genie Out Of The Bottle"

The independent Financial Times' editorial stressed (4/7): "Pakistan has done itself no favors by openly test-firing a medium-range missile in response to the new Indian government's pro-nuclear stance. The move seems bound to raise tensions just when the Indian government is showing signs of wanting to backtrack on the nuclear rhetoric featured in its election campaign.... Both countries are burdened with excessive budget deficits, and neither can afford to engage in an intensification of the arms race. But the genie is out of the bottle, and though Pakistan must take the blame for that, it is up to India to show responsibility in responding."

"First Anti-Proliferation Battle Has Been Lost"

The lead editorial in the conservative Times said (4/7): "The conventional military arsenals of India and Pakistan attract some anxiety, let alone the development by both sides of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. These are toys that India and Pakistan must be persuaded to put away. Despite America's best efforts, including an arms embargo on Pakistan, the first anti-proliferation battle has been lost."

FRANCE: "The Return Of Nuclear Threat"

Dominique Bromberger remarked on government-run France Inter radio (4/8): "The nuclear threat is back, and it is no joke.... While some Western nations believe that Islamabad is bluffing...everyone agrees that both India and Pakistan have nuclear capabilities.... According to some experts, the danger is the most serious since the Cuban missile crisis.... Because Islamabad and New Delhi have been incapable of setting rules of mutual conduct, we are in the midst of an ill-controlled nuclear risk situation."

GERMANY: "The Madness Continues"

Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine's Werner Adam stressed (4/8): "Despite the fact that both sides claim that they use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes, it seems certain that both sides are capable of using nuclear power for military purposes. The armament race has continued at the same speed as the growth of population and poverty on the South Asian subcontinent. A new phase on this tragic path was just realized with the successful use of a middle-range missile by Pakistan. India, which certainly has no need to keep up in this regard, immediately started to think about countermeasures. The madness continues despite all economic common sense and social responsibility towards the people. Nobody wants to deny these two countries the right to defend themselves. But their latent hostility has already led to more than one war."

"India Is Rattling With The 'Hindu Bomb'"

Peter Muench editorialized in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (3/19): "The rhetoric of new Premier Vajpayee does not yet signal a turnabout, but it will, since it has now been presented in such loud tones, create an enormously negative response. This 'obtrusive' rhetoric about the 'Hindu bomb' will be considered a provocation in Pakistan, which is building the 'Islamic bomb.' This is the end of the process of detente that was initiated only recently between the arch enemies, who have gone to war three times over the past fifty years. After the end of the East-West conflict an open nuclear arms race is now looming in South Asia."

HUNGARY: "The Ancient Eurasian Curse"

Second largest circulation daily Nepszava had this op-ed piece (4/8): "Washington...is worried about the recent announcement that Pakistan had successfully tested its middle-range surface-to-surface missile. The fear that the two neighbors, Pakistan and India, might clash has been a long-time worry overseas, mainly because both countries are close to being able to produce nuclear weapons. This fact itself is scary enough for a world where stockpiled nuclear arsenals disappear into the hands of private dealers.... There is the real fear is that the two...can hardly be prevented from a speedy armament. The recent negative reaction of the United States to the announcement probably only sounds like a flea's buzzing in...(Pakistan)...which do not seem to care too much about regional stability. The spirit of revenge--just as in Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia--is still dominant there. The blast-off of the Pakistani missile can easily been sparked by the ancient Eurasian curse: rampant nationalism."

RUSSIA: "New Stage Of Arms Race"

Sergei Guly commented in reformist Noviye Izvestia (4/8) on a Ghauri missile test in Pakistan: "It appears that the arms race in Industan is entering a new stage, formally started by India's new premier Atal Bihari Vajpai."

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

4/10/98

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