DoD News Briefing
Tuesday, June 2, 1998 - 1:45 p.m. (EDT)
Mr. Kenneth H. Bacon, ASD (PA)
Mr. Bacon: Good afternoon.
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Q: Ken, there have been a number of reports from Pakistan that the Paks have tested new missiles. Has the United States anything on that? Have the Paks in recent days or weeks tested any new nuclear capable missiles? And to our knowledge, what's their longest range missile?
A: We have no evidence that they have tested new missiles. The last missile they tested, I believe, was in April -- I think April 6th. It was the Ghauri missile. It has a range of about 1300 kilometers.
We have seen some reports based on Pakistani press reports about missiles named the Shaheen-1 and the Shaheen-2, but we do not have any evidence that those missiles exist. It may be just a different name for existing missiles, or perhaps a garbled report.
Having said all that, the important thing is that both Pakistan and India are developing new missiles. They are testing these missiles. They have both talked of weaponizing these missiles by trying to put nuclear warheads on the missiles. We think this would be a mistake. We think that it would lead to an increase in tensions at a time when we hope that India and Pakistan will find ways to reduce tensions between them.
Q: This 1,300 kilometer missile, is that a new missile or just...
A: No. They tested it back in April. They've been working on it for some time. We described it extensively in the report, Proliferation Threat and Response, which we issued last November. If you've lost your copy we'd be glad to get you a new copy.
They also have been working on a shorter range missile called the Tarmuk. I believe that has a range of 500-600 kilometers, but I'd have to double check that. That's also discussed in the Proliferation Threat and Response report.
And of course the Indians also are working on a medium range missile called the Agni which has a range of about 2,000 kilometers.
Q: Do you know if the Pakistanis have been able to miniaturize the weapon enough to put it on a missile? Have they made that progression?
A: I don't have a clear answer to that. Our best guess is that it would probably take them a year or two to weaponize their nuclear weapons by putting them onto warheads. Of course that can depend a lot on how much they decide to test, what the state of their current program is now, how much security they want about whether it works. So there are many, many variables, but we think it would take some time for them to actually put a nuclear warhead onto a missile.
Q: How about India?
A: Probably in about the same time range, but there again there are a lot of variables and it's hard to be nailed down on this.
One of the things we're appealing to both countries to do is not to weaponize their nuclear warheads. We'd like them to stop testing; we'd like them to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; we'd like them to sign the Fissile Materials Agreement; and we'd like them not to weaponize the warheads that they have.
Q: Is there any evidence that Israel is helping the Indians in their nuclear weapons program?
A: I do not have any indications that they are, no.
Q: In your report last November, it mentions India's space launching program. It says, I'm paraphrasing, but theoretically, those vehicles could be converted eventually, in theory, to intermediate range missiles or to intercontinental missiles. The report says that at that time there was no evidence that India was doing that. Is that still true?
A: I believe it's still the case, yes.
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Q: Back to North Korea for a second. What is your assessment of North Korea's contribution to Pakistan's military, particularly their missile program?
A: I think that Pakistan basically has an indigenous program with its nuclear program. They have looked to other countries for help on their missile program. I don't have a clear view right now of what the North Korean contribution is, if any.
Q: Some people say the Ghauri is essentially the No Dong of Pakistan.
A: I have seen that, and I'm just not clear right now how robust the North Korean contribution has been, or if there has been a North Korean contribution. It's something we may be able to find out.
Q: Is the Ghauri the No Dong, though? More specifically?
A: That is an interesting question. I'll give the same answer I just gave.
Q: There were some reports about preemptive strike against nuclear sites in Pakistan by either Israel or India. Would you comment on such events if it does occur?
A: First of all, those reports from last week we think were just wrong. We have no indication that any such strike was being planned or was likely to happen.
Q: You may think they're wrong, but there are a lot of people who think that Pakistan certainly believed that they were real things. There may have been no basis for that, but that's the whole thing that makes things dangerous.
A: Yes.
Q: Did you observe Pakistan reacting as if they were real threats that they were facing?
A: The Pakistani officials made public statements to the news media here including some people in this room, or people who are usually in this room. So I don't think they made any secret of what their fears were.
We had no intelligence to back up their charge that India was preparing to do this.
Q: Did we share that insight with Pakistan?
A: We did share that with them and we announced that at the time, that we had actually shared this information with Pakistan.
Q: Did we warn Israel or India about such action, not to take such action?
A: We didn't believe that such action was imminent. We didn't see any signs that such action was imminent. We so told Pakistan that. This is something that happened last week, I want to point out. It was well reported at the time.
Q: In the last week or so can you tell us if there have been any changes in the disposition of conventional forces, either in Pakistan or India and along the disputed border in Kashmir?
A: There hasn't been anything particularly significant in the last week or so. Skirmishing is pretty much a fact of life in Jammu and Kashmir, and that continues. We did see some heightening of air defense alert last week...
Q: Both countries or just Pakistan?
A: Both countries, around certain installations.
I want to stress that this is an extremely dangerous and potentially volatile situation. I'm not trying to minimize it. It remains extremely dangerous and volatile, and we're very concerned about the possibility of miscalculation. That's one of the reasons that we've been so explicit to both countries in stressing the need for looking for ways to reduce the tensions.
Q: Are the conventional forces on a hair trigger stance? Or would it take weeks before you have a generalized call-up and mobilization?
A: I wouldn't call it a hair trigger stance. Most of what we saw was defensive on both sides.
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