DATE=9/17/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41399
TITLE= PAKISTAN / NUCLEAR
BYLINE= KEN SCHWARTZ
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A NEW BOOK BY TWO EXPERTS ON PAKISTAN SHOWS WIDE SUPPORT
IN THAT COUNTRY FOR ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. V-O-A'S KEN
SCHWARTZ REPORTS THAT THE BOOK, WRITTEN TWO YEARS AGO, FORESAW
TODAY'S SOUTH ASIAN ARMS RACE.
TEXT: IN THEIR JUST PUBLISHED BOOK, "PAKISTAN AND THE BOMB,"
DAVID CORTRIGHT AND ZIA MIAN USED PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS TO TRACE
PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM. LAST MAY,
PAKISTAN EXPLODED SIX NUCLEAR DEVICES -- A DIRECT RESPONSE TO
INDIA'S TESTS (OF FIVE WEAPONS).
THE POLLS TAKEN IN 1996, TWO YEARS BEFORE THE TESTS, SHOWED
STRONG SUPPORT AT THAT TIME FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.
NINETY-EIGHT PERCENT SAID AN INDIAN INCURSION ACROSS THE
PAKISTANI BORDER WOULD JUSTIFY A NUCLEAR RESPONSE. MORE THAN
THREE-QUARTERS SAID A RAID ACROSS THE LINE OF CONTROL IN KASHMIR
WOULD BE ENOUGH, WHILE A SCANT ONE PERCENT SAID NUCLEAR BOMBS
SHOULD NEVER BE USED.
MR. MIAN SAYS THE QUESTIONS WERE PUT MOSTLY TO PAKISTAN'S
SO-CALLED ELITE, WITH CLOSE TIES TO A GOVERNMENT THAT ALLOWS
LITTLE DISSENT.
/// MIAN ACT ///
YOU HAVE HAD GOVERNMENT APPROVAL, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT,
AND GOVERNMENT SUPPRESSION AND THE WILLFUL MAINTAINING
OF IGNORANCE ABOUT WHAT IS INVOLVED IN HAVING NUCLEAR
WEAPONS. SO IT IS NOT SURPRISING YOU HAVE THIS VERY
LARGE, 90 PERCENT SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
/// END ACT ///
MR. MIAN CALLS THIS A MANUFACTURED CONSENSUS, WHERE THE
GOVERNMENT CONVINCED PEOPLE OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY NEEDS, WHILE
SOMETIMES USING VIOLENCE TO PROP UP THE MAJORITY.
/// OPT /// LAST JUNE, A V-O-A REPORTER WAS IN ISLAMABAD AT A
NUCLEAR FORUM WHEN AN OLD MAN STOOD UP AND SAID DISSENTING VOICES
SHOULD BE HEARD.
/// NATURAL SOUND UP FULL, THEN UNDER ///
YOUTHS AND INVITED JOURNALISTS YELLED AT THE OLD MAN AND CALLED
HIM A TRAITOR. THEY HIT HIM WITH CHAIRS. /// END OPT ///
MR. MIAN SAID WITH A HINDU-NATIONALIST GOVERNMENT IN INDIA AND
GROWING ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM IN PAKISTAN, HIS WORST FEARS ARE
BEING REALIZED.
/// MIAN ACT ///
SO WE FACE A SITUATION IN SOUTH ASIA WHERE BOTH SIDES
HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, BOTH SIDES HAVE DEPLOYED THEIR
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, BOTH SIDES REFUSE TO NEGOTIATE A
SETTLEMENT TO THE KASHMIR CRISIS. THEY TESTED, THEY GOT
AWAY WITH IT, AND THE U-S IS PREPARED TO ACCEPT IT
BECAUSE IT IS TOO MUCH TROUBLE TO FIND A REAL ANSWER
THAT MAY PROVIDE LASTING PEACE IN SOUTH ASIA.
/// END ACT ///
THE BOOK SHOWS THAT IN 1996, 97 PERCENT OF PAKISTANIS FAVORED A
GLOBAL BAN ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS. CO-AUTHOR DAVID CORTRIGHT SAYS
NATIONS -- LIKE THE U-S -- THAT WANT TO CONTROL THE SOUTH ASIAN
ARMS RACE MUST LEAD BY EXAMPLE.
/// CORTRIGHT ACT ///
PRESIDENT CLINTON SAID, 'I CANNOT BELIEVE WE ARE GOING
TO GO INTO THE 21ST CENTURY REPEATING THE MISTAKES OF
THE PAST WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.' BUT AT THE SAME TIME,
OUR OWN GOVERNMENT IS COMMITTED TO MAINTAINING THESE
WEAPONS INDEFINITELY.
/// END ACT ///
BOTH AUTHORS SAY A TRULY GLOBAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS BAN WOULD HAVE A
DEEP INFLUENCE ON CONVINCING INDIA AND PAKISTAN TO LOOK FOR A
PEACEFUL END TO THEIR RIVALRY. (SIGNED)
NEB/KS/GE
17-Sep-98 2:45 PM EDT (1845 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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