DATE=6/19/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40731
TITLE=PAKISTAN-INDIA-MISSILES
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: U-S OFFICIALS SAY RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS IN INDIA AND
PAKISTAN ARE FOCUSING NEW ATTENTION ON THE WAYS SUCH DEVASTATING
WEAPONS COULD BE DELIVERED. SOME PRIVATE EXPERTS SAY INDIA AND
PAKISTAN COULD BE AS LITTLE AS MONTHS AWAY FROM FIELDING NEW
GENERATIONS OF MISSILES THAT COULD CARRY NUCLEAR WARHEADS DEEP
INTO THEIR ADVERSARIES' TERRITORY. V-O-A'S JIM RANDLE TAKES A
LOOK AT THIS ISSUE IN THIS REPORT.
TEXT: DAVID WRIGHT FOLLOWS NUCLEAR AND MISSILE ISSUES FOR THE
UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS AND THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF
TECHNOLOGY. HE SAYS THE GHAURI [GOR-REE] MISSILE PAKISTAN TESTED
IN APRIL HAS A RANGE OVER ONE-THOUSAND KILOMETERS, AND CAUSED
GREAT CONCERN IN INDIA.
//// DR. DAVID WRIGHT///
SO THAT'S SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER (RANGE) THAN ANYTHING
THEY'VE (PAKISTAN) HAD BEFORE. THAT COULD PROBABLY
CARRY ABOUT A ONE TON PAYLOAD, ASSUMING, WITH A LITTLE
WORK, PAKISTAN COULD BUILD A BOMB THAT WAS THAT LIGHT,
AND WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO FIT IN THE MISSILE. THAT LOOKS
LIKE THEY HAVE SOMETHING THEY COULD FIRE SOMETIME SOON.
/// END ACT ///
PROFESSOR WRIGHT DEFINES 'SOON' AS A FEW MONTHS, PERHAPS A YEAR.
HE SAYS INDIA COULD FIELD A MISSILE WITH ABOUT A 15-HUNDRED
KILOMETER RANGE 'REASONABLY QUICKLY.' HE SAYS NEW DELHI HAS BEEN
WORKING ON THE 'AGNI' MISSILE FOR MANY YEARS AND WITH A MAJOR
EFFORT COULD CONVERT THE AGNI FROM AN EXPERIMENT INTO A WEAPON
WITHIN A YEAR.
BUT A REPORT BY DEFENSE ANALYSTS AT THE LONDON-BASED 'JANES
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW' SAYS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE LONGER. IT
QUOTES A TOP INDIAN SCIENTIST AS SAYING THE AGNI IS 'YEARS' AWAY
FROM DEPLOYMENT.
PENTAGON OFFICIALS SAY BALLISTIC MISSILES POSE AN 'ESPECIALLY
TROUBLING SECURITY RISKS' IN SOUTH ASIA, BECAUSE THEY ALLOW INDIA
AND PAKISTAN TO STRIKE EACH OTHER IN ONLY MINUTES.
ANDREW KOCH, A SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST AT THE PRIVATE 'CENTER FOR
DEFENSE INFORMATION' IN WASHINGTON SAYS, THE EXISTENCE OF SUCH
MISSILES WOULD PUT INCREDIBLE PRESSURE ON THE LEADERSHIP OF THESE
NATIONS. MR KOCH SAYS IF THERE WAS ANY BLIP ON INDIAN OF
PAKISTANI RADAR, THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO TIME TO CHECK TO SEE
IF IT IS A COMPUTER GLITCH (PROBLEM) OR A REAL ATTACK.
/// SR RESEARCH ANALYST ANDREW KOCH ///
IF YOU GOT A WARNING, YOU WOULD ALMOST HAVE TO LAUNCH
IMMEDIATELY, WITHOUT HAVING ANY VERIFICATION OR ANY TIME
TO THINK BECAUSE THE FLIGHT TIMES ARE SO SHORT.
/// END ACT ///
HE SAYS THIS INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY THAT NUCLEAR WAR MIGHT BE
STARTED BY ACCIDENT.
CLAY BOWEN OF THE MONTEREY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN
CALIFORNIA SAYS THE TWO SOUTH ASIAN RIVALS ALREADY HAVE AIRCRAFT
AND SHORT RANGE MISSILES THAT COULD DELIVER NUCLEAR WARHEADS.
BUT HE SAYS AIRCRAFT ARE EASIER TO STOP THAN MISSILES, AND
MISSILES THAT REACH JUST 150 OR 300 KILOMETERS WOULD LEAVE A LOT
OF TERRITORY UNTOUCHED BY A WAR.
MR. BOWEN SAYS INDIA IS ALSO WORKING ON BOOSTING THE RANGE OF
THE AGNI TO PERHAPS FIVE-THOUSAND KILOMETERS TO COUNTER THE
THREAT IT ALSO FEELS FROM CHINA. THE LONGER RANGE WOULD ALLOW
INDIA TO STRIKE MOST OF THAT COUNTRY.
THE EXPERTS ALSO AGREE THAT BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN ARE WORKING
TO INCREASE THE ACCURACY OF THEIR WEAPONS -- AND UNTIL THEY DO
THE RISKS IN THE REGION ARE ENORMOUS.
MR BOWEN OF THE MONTEREY INSTITUTE:
/// BOWEN ACT///
IT EASY TO PUT A MISSILE UP IN THE AIR, IT IS HARD TO
GET IT TO COME DOWN WHERE YOU WANT IT TO. THAT IS ONE
OF THE AREAS WHERE THEY NEED TO CONTINUE TESTING.
/// END ACT ///
M-I-T'S DAVID WRIGHT SAYS INACCURATE MISSILES ARE UNLIKELY TO HIT
MILITARY TARGETS, WHICH TEND TO BE SMALL AND MOBILE. HE SAYS
UNTIL INDIA AND PAKISTAN DEVELOP MORE ADVANCED GUIDANCE SYSTEMS,
THEY ARE LIKELY TO TARGET EACH OTHERS' CITIES. DEFENSE EXPERTS
ESTIMATE THAT IN CROWDED PLACES LIKE INDIA OR PAKISTAN, EACH
NUCLEAR WARHEAD WOULD LIKELY KILL 500-THOUSAND PEOPLE -- OR MORE.
(SIGNED)
NEB/JR/LTD/JO
19-Jun-98 4:56 PM EDT (2056 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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