DATE=6/4/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40593
TITLE=PAK NUCLEAR
BYLINE=RAVI KHANNA
DATELINE=ISLAMABAD
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE DEBATE IS ON IN PAKISTAN ON WHETHER IT WOULD HAVE BEEN
IN A BETTER POSITION BY NOT RESPONDING IN KIND TO INDIA AND
TESTING ITS OWN NUCLEAR DEVICE. SOME NEWSPAPER COLUMNISTS SAY
THEY REALIZE PUBLIC PRESSURE ON PRIME MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF WAS
STRONG, BUT THEY FEEL HE SHOULD HAVE GIVEN MORE TIME THAN JUST 18
DAYS TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO RESPOND TO INDIAN TESTING.
(EDS: INDIA TESTED ON MAY 11TH AND PAKISTAN ON THE 28TH, HENCE 18
DAYS). V-O-A'S RAVI KHANNA SPOKE WITH TWO SENIOR COLUMNISTS
ABOUT THE DEBATE.
TEXT: VETERAN NEWSPAPER COLUMNIST EQBAL AHMED SAYS, AS A
PAKISTANI, HE FEELS HIS COUNTRY WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF IF IT
HAD MAINTAINED A POSITION OF AMBIGUITY AND NOT CONDUCTED A
NUCLEAR TEST TO MATCH INDIA'S.
// AHMED ACT-1 //
THERE IS A GENERAL PRINCIPLE OF A STRATEGIC DOCTRINE
THAT THE WEAKER OF THE TWO POWERS DOES NOT SHOW ITS
STRENGTH. SHOWING ITS STRENGTH CAN BE BOTH PROVOCATIVE
AND UNNECESSARY. "KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY" -- THAT IS THE
SAYING MOSTLY FOR THOSE WHO ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THAT WAS ONE REASON. THE OTHER WAS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
PROTECTED OURSELVES FROM THE CONSEQUENCES OF AN
INTERNATIONAL REACTION -- ECONOMIC AND OTHER SANCTIONS.
THE THIRD WAS THAT THIS WAS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO
NEGOTIATE WITH THE WESTERN WORLD IN RETURN FOR NOT
TESTING A CERTAIN ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD ENHANCE OUR
CONVENTIONAL SECURITY AND BRING US SOME GUARANTEES IN
TERMS OF NUCLEAR PROTECTION. WE DID NOT GIVE THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ENOUGH TIME, WE DID NOT GIVE
OURSELVES ENOUGH TIME TO EXPLORE THOSE POSSIBILITIES.
EIGHTEEN DAYS ARE NOT ENOUGH.
// END ACT //
MR. AHMED BELIEVES AGGRESSIVE STATEMENTS BY INDIA'S NEW
GOVERNMENT AFTER ITS NUCLEAR TESTS LEFT PAKISTAN WITH LITTLE
OPTION. BUT HE SAYS HAVING PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES OUT
IN THE OPEN CAN ALSO POSE A RISK FOR INDIA.
// AHMED ACT-2 //
THE SANCTIONS IMPOSED ON PAKISTAN MAY AFFECT ITS
CONVENTIONAL MILITARY CAPABILITIES EVEN MORE. WE HAVE
RENDERED OUR NUCLEAR WEAPONS CLEARLY MORE EXPLICIT.
THEREFORE, IN A SITUATION WHERE WAR IS THREATENED, I
THINK PAKISTAN IS MORE LIKELY TO BE JUMPIER THAN INDIA.
AND BY NOT MAKING OUR NUCLEAR WEAPONS EXPLICIT, WE
WOULD HAVE GIVEN OURSELVES A LITTLE MORE REACTION TIME.
// END ACT //
BUT DEFENSE ANALYST SHIRIN MAZARI SAYS SHE WAS VERY PLEASED BY
THE PAKISTANI TESTS, BECAUSE SHE HAS BEEN AN ADVOCATE OF
PAKISTAN'S OVERT NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FOR MANY YEARS NOW,
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER INDIA TESTED OR NOT.
// MAZARI ACT-1 //
NOW WE KNOW THE REALITY ON THE GROUND. WE HAVE TESTED,
SO WE CAN BE SURE ABOUT THE SORT OF WEAPONS THAT WE
DEVELOP AND THEIR POTENTIAL AND CAPABILITIES. BUT MORE
IMPORTANT, I THINK, NOW INDIA AND PAKISTAN -- WITH
EVERYTHING OUT IN THE OPEN -- CAN MOVE TO THE NEXT STEP
WHICH ALL NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES HAVE DONE, IS THAT THEY
CAN STABILIZE THEIR CONFLICTUAL RELATIONSHIP IN TERMS OF
TRYING TO PREVENT ACCIDENTAL WAR OR PRE-EMPTIVE WAR OR
UNINTENDED WAR. AND THAT THEY CAN DO WHEN THEY SIT AT
THE NEGOTIATING TABLE AND DO NUMBER CRUNCHING -- YOU
KNOW LIMITATIONS ON MISSILES THAT THEY DEPLOY, BECAUSE
BOTH COUNTRIES DO HAVE A RESOURCE LIMITATION. SO IT
MAKES NO SENSE FOR THERE TO BE A RUNAWAY (ARMS) RACE
IN ANY CASE. BUT OF COURSE, A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE REASONS FOR THE CONFLICTUAL RELATIONSHIP IN THE
FIRST PLACE. THE MAIN REASON AND ONE OF THE PROBLEMS
BEING KASHMIR. THAT HAS TO NOW BE REFOCUSED ON AND
RESOLVED.
// END ACT //
MS. MAZARI SAYS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST PUT PRESSURE ON
INDIA TO SIT ON THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WITH PAKISTAN AND KASHMIRI
LEADERS TO FIND A PERMANENT SOLUTION TO THE KASHMIR PROBLEM.
(SIGNED)
NEB/RK/LTD /MMK
04-Jun-98 12:13 PM EDT (1613 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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