New York Times, August 27, 1996
"
U.S. Wary of Punishing China for Missile Help to Pakistan
"By STEVEN ERLANGER
WASHINGTON -- While the Clinton administration has not
formally declared that China is secretly helping Pakistan build a
factory to produce medium-range missiles, in violation of its promises to
Washington, senior officials are already trying to figure out what to do
about it.
The factory is the latest of several weapons control disputes to arise with
China in recent years and American law could require the imposition of
economic sanctions. But senior officials have no appetite for another
confrontation with China, especially in an election year in which
Sino-American relations have already been a big headache.
"This has been in the category of too hot to touch unless it jumps up to
bite you," one senior official said. "Decision-makers have a way of saying,
'This isn't ready for a decision yet,' and that has clearly frustrated some
people in intelligence," he said, who believe the evidence is there and
want to press for a response.
Officials believe the factory, being built by the Pakistanis in a suburb of
Rawalpindi, with Chinese help, will produce a version of the Chinese
M-11 medium range missile, which is capable of carrying nuclear
warheads up to 200 miles. But they are still debating whether the factory
is indeed designed to produce complete missiles, or only parts, and how
deep the Chinese role has been. Pakistan denies that it is constructing a
medium-range missile factory.
Another issue, which has been publicly debated for months, is the
reported shipment by China to Pakistan of M-11 missiles themselves,
between 1990 and 1994. The Clinton administration officially says it does
not know for sure that the missiles were delivered and are in crates at
Pakistan's Sargodha Air Force Base, near Lahore.
But a recent National Intelligence Estimate, the agreed judgment of the
governments intelligence services, concludes that the missiles are probably
there in crates and could be launched within 48 hours, a senior
administration official said. The estimate says there is not enough evidence
to decide if those missiles are fitted with nuclear warheads, as the
Pakistanis would clearly like to be able to do in time, the official said.
Both China and Pakistan deny that a transfer of missiles has occurred.
American officials are eager to manage relations with China carefully in a
year that has already seen sharp confrontations over trade policy, the
spread of nuclear weapons, Taiwan and its elections, human rights and
the Chinese piracy of copyrighted videotapes, software and compact
disks. In a coordinated effort, the State Department, Treasury
Department and White House have recently tried to keep relations with
China on a less strident, more even level, with a series of high-level
meetings planned that are expected to lead to a summit meeting after the
American election.
So American officials are likely to want to settle any dispute over missiles
through negotiation if possible, rather than imposing sanctions as the law
would require. American officials also recognize that China regards India
as a regional rival. If China helps Pakistan secure medium-range missiles
they would balance missiles that India, a larger and more advanced
country, has already developed for itself. Both Pakistan and India are
unacknowledged nuclear powers, but India has tested the Prithvi missile,
which for now is believed to be designed for a conventional warhead.
Both the provision by China of M-11s to Pakistan and help to Pakistan to
make more of them stem from contracts dating from the late 1980s,
senior officials say. But both violate a 1990 American law designed to
discourage the spread of missiles and missile technology. The technology
transfer involved in the factory also violates the Missile Technology
Control Regime, an international agreement that China has promised
Washington to obey even though it is not a signatory.
The regime does not absolutely ban in every case the exports of
medium-range missiles like the M-11, but China promised Washington in
October 1994, when it settled another case for which sanctions had been
imposed. The regime does prohibit the transfer of production facilities for
such missiles.
If the U.S. government formally declares that China has in fact shipped
M-11s to Pakistan or is helping Pakistan construct a factory to build
them, under the 1990 law, the United States must deny export licenses
for military and dual-use items to the entities involved from both Pakistan
and China, and also deny them American contracts.
Under an amendment to the law, in the case of a "non-market" or
Communist country like China, they are also subject to a denial of export
licenses to the whole state sector involved, in this case, the broad area of
aerospace and electronics industries.
While such a sanction would not cover toasters, it would damage China's
satellite-launching industry, for example, and other endeavors that require
American products not easily bought from other countries, the way China
has recently chosen to buy European-made Airbus civilian aircraft rather
than American Boeings.
"It is possible to put off a decision for a while," a senior official said, "but
not to avoid them. It's a legal matter."
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