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Military stalemate in Libya only short-term, says former UK envoy

IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency

London, April 6, IRNA -- The virtual military stalemate in Libya will only prove “short-term” and any division of the country will be “temporary,” according to former British Ambassador to Iran and Libya, Sir Richard Dalton.

“I believe the opposition will get stronger and that the government can only get weaker,” said Dalton, who is now an associate fellow on the Middle East and North African programme at Chatham House foreign affairs thinktank in London.

Dalton originally argued for international humanitarian armed intervention in Libya before UN resolution 1973, but warned the Gaddafi regime was unlikely to crumble “at least until they have a way out that is not straight to the International Criminal Court.”

“The Libyans have a narrative of resisting foreign pressure for years and Gaddafi will call on this narrative to keep his core supporters together,” he said.

Some analysts have suggested that there is a prospect of the Gaddafi regime recovering the key eastern town of Ajdabiya, which would enable control of oil-and-gas terminals that export the great majority of Libya's energy resources, and threaten other key rebel-held districts.

But in an interview with IRNA, Dalton said that he did not believe that the NATO-led coalition world would let sufficient forces near Ajdabiya for a government victory there.

Any eventual division of the country, he said, would only be “temporary not permanent and would be unstable and prone to risings in the west (of the country) to challenge the government's supremacy.”

Both British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have tried to dampen speculation about Libya being partitioned by issuing a joint statement vowing commitment to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national unity of the country.

Dalton gained extensive experience of the Middle East and North Africa as a career diplomat for 36 years until his retirement in 2006, serving in Lebanon, Oman and Palestine as well as being ambassador to Libya and then Iran in his final posting.

He emphasised the importance of the diplomatic element in reaching a settlement, saying that eventually it will be “conclusive” though he believed no negotiations were under way yet “as neither side wants a ceasefire and positions on Gaddafi's future are incompatible.”

“Difficult decisions for Libyans lie ahead: between peace and resistance, accountability for the regime and its negotiated departure. They will need all the support they can get through collective political action by the UN family and regional organizations.”

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Islamic Republic News Agency/IRNA NewsCode: 30325916