DATE=1/13/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=LIBYA / BRITAIN
NUMBER=5-45228
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Earlier this week, British customs agents at
London's Gatwick airport confirmed they seized crates
containing missile parts bound for Libya. National
Security correspondent Andre de Nesnera looks at the
military and diplomatic ramifications of the seizure.
TEXT: British customs agents confiscated 32 crates
containing components for a short-range ballistic
missile of the "Scud" type. The crates were labeled
"automotive parts" and were on a British Airways
flight bound first for Malta, then Tripoli, Libya.
The agents seized the crates November 24th. They
confirmed their operation after details were leaked
last week to the "Sunday Times" of London. The
newspaper said the shipment came from a knitwear
company in Taiwan. Experts believe Taiwan was not the
point of origin - only a stopover. It is known that
previously, Libya has received medium-range missiles
from North Korea.
Paul Beaver - senior analyst with the British
Publication "Jane's Defense Weekly" - says the Soviet
Unions' collapse ended the Libyan military's
traditional arms supplier. And it has been looking
for other sources.
/// BEAVER ACT ///
The Libyan armed forces have been neglected for
the last decade. They have a small number of
MiG fighter aircraft. They have some "Scud"
missiles. They may well have some sort of
chemical warfare capability that they have been
developing, perhaps with money from Saddam
Hussein in the late 1980's. We are not quite
sure. But we know they have got some missiles.
They fired some at Italy about a decade ago.
They only hit an off-shore island - but at least
they hit the island and it did not get into the
water, which means they have some technical
capability.
/// END ACT //
Mr. Beaver says Libya is known to have "Scud" missiles
capable of hitting targets 300 to 500 kilometers away.
But he believes the parts seized at Gatwick Airport
were components for a fairly long-range "Scud"
missile.
/// BEAVER ACT ///
We think that these were probably components for
something that is called "Scud-Charlie," which
has a range of a little over 900 kilometers,
which would put Naples in range. Not quite Rome
- no (European) capital cities could be
targeted. But of course the Americans have a
Sixth fleet (Navy) base in Naples and Sigonella,
on Sicily, as well. So there could be some sort
of threat posed there, and this may well be why
Libya feels it needs these weapons in some sort
of bargaining chip.
/// END ACT ///
The British defense expert says the "Scud-Charlie" may
be armed with warheads carrying biological, chemical
or even nuclear weapons.
Rupert Allason, an intelligence expert, says the
operation at Gatwick was the consequence of months of
cooperation involving many intelligence agencies,
including the C-I-A. He says the fact that Libya
tried to smuggle in missile parts is an ominous sign.
/// ALLASON ACT ///
Colonel Gaddafi's regime is not threatened by
any significant exterior or external opposition
force. He has no hostile neighbors. Certainly
a war was fought down in the south against Chad
some years ago. But this kind of weapon is a
weapon of aggression and I would think that it
would be of considerable concern not just to
Libya's neighbors, but perhaps to the countries
that have regarded Colonel Gaddafi in the past
as being a sponsor of terrorism.
/// END ACT ///
Last year, Libya renounced terrorism and surrendered
for trial two suspects in the bombing of a U-S
jetliner over Lockerbie, Scotland. That prompted the
United Nations to lift most of its sanctions against
Libya - though an arms embargo still remains in
effect.
There is also an international prohibition against
selling Tripoli so-called "dual-use technology" that
could serve civilian or military purposes.
Analysts say the timing of the disclosure on Libya's
attempt to gain missile parts is significant. Colonel
Gaddafi is trying to better relations with the
European Union at a time when the E-U is eager to do
business with Libya. Last month, European Union
President Romano Prodi invited Colonel Gaddafi to
Brussels. That visit may now be on hold.
In addition, Britain just recently re-established
diplomatic relations with Tripoli after a 15-year
hiatus, following in the footsteps of France and
Italy. Experts say the Gatwick disclosure is expected
to cool relations between London and Tripoli. (Signed)
NEB/ADEN/JP
13-Jan-2000 11:17 AM EDT (13-Jan-2000 1617 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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