Rabbits' Ears and Doves' Dreams: Stern Eyes Cast on the H-2: Military Diversion Feared by the International Community Because No Technical Boundary Can Be Drawn Between Military and Peaceful Uses
Tokyo MAINICHI SHIMBUN
24 Aug 94
Morning Edition p 22
[FBIS Translated Text] The second H-2 rocket will be launched on 28 August, on the second attempt, from the Tanegashima Space Center of the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA), after the failure of its first attempt. This is to haul into geostationary orbit Engineering Test Satellite-6 (ETS-6), which is regarded by the world as an attempt by Japan "to divert the technique to military uses" because of its highly sophisticated technology.
"Is it not possible to divert the rocket for military purposes, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)?" Sixty-two year old Tomifumi Godai, a NASDA director, was surprised to hear such a question from a group of about seven ROK reporters. It happened in late November of last year at the Tanegashima Space Center, immediately after a rehearsal press conference, a little over a month before the scheduled launch of the first H-2 rocket.
A thought flashed through his mind: "It is because they have the North Korean (DPRK) problem." Director Godai, who has been in charge of the development for the past 10 years, remained composed and repeated his explanation: "Japan has a peace-oriented Constitution. Japan's Diet resolutions and the law governing the National Agency of Space Activities all call for the peaceful utilization of space. How could Japan experiment with military rockets in an open place like the cape on Tanegashima Island, where anybody can see?" But the ROK press corps was not convinced.
The H-2 rockets are domestically produced with a total development cost of 270 billion yen. One rocket costs 19 billion yen to produce and is designed to launch a geostationary satellite weighing two tons to the altitude of 36,000 kilometers. The Nodong-1, reputed to be developed by the DPRK, is an improved type of the Scud missile from the former Soviet Union. According to Self Defense Forces officials, "The Nodong-1 carries payloads of less than 500 kilograms. If a nuclear warhead is to be loaded, the warhead must be very small. Highly sophisticated technology and a considerable amount of time will be required to do so."
Meanwhile, Japan's H-2 can carry a payload of five tons into low orbit. Regarding the major intercontinental ballistic missiles of the United States and Russia, the U.S. MX Peacekeeper can carry a payload of 3.8 tons, while Russia's SS-18 Satan can carry 7.6 tons. Both missiles also can carry 10 small nuclear warheads with guidance system and decoys. The H-2 is a rocket that parallels them. The U.S. atomic bombs dropped at Hiroshima and Nagasaki weighed four to five tons because they were primitive, and by calculation, the H-2 could carry them. "Unfortunately, most techniques that are used for space development programs can be diverted to the development of ballistic missiles. As in the cases of the United States and the former Soviet Union, knowledge gained by launching rockets in their space program could be diverted to ballistic missiles." This was stated by former U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William H. Webster before a U.S. Senate committee, with reference to the realities that rocket techniques can be used for both military and peaceful purposes without distinction. Under the title "Diagram 20--Foreign Rockets That Have Caught Up With the United States," the section "Space Troops" of the 1992 edition of the U.S. Defense Report showed drawings of the H-2 rocket under development, along with Europe's Ariane rockets and China's Long March rockets. An explanatory note said, "In the 90's, Europe, China, the former Soviet Union, and Japan attempt to parallel or overtake U.S. technology."
LE-7, the H-2's first stage main engine, and LE-5A, the second stage engine, use liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, reputedly the most efficient combination for combustion and propulsion, as their propellant. Koichi Morimoto, former assistant director of the Space Division at the Science and Technology Agency, emphasizes, "The H-2 rockets propelled by liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen cannot be launched in a hurry. Liquid fuels cannot be stockpiled. They have to be prepared several days before the launch and the rocket's propellant parts should be kept cool. The fuels are meant for peaceful uses." However, most Russian and Chinese ICBMs use liquid fuels as their propellants, instead of solid fuels that are difficult to develop.
The Mu rocket developed by the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science of the Education Ministry uses solid fuel. The three-stage M-5 rocket to be launched in 1995 can send a two-ton satellite into the low orbit of 500 kilometers. Director Godai, with a sigh, said, "Japan's development of rocket technology is a rare case in the world in that it has nothing to do with defense. It may be difficult for foreigners to understand, because space development is directly connected with weapons in all other nations."
Kensuke Ebata, well versed in military affairs and a correspondent of JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, pointed out, "Despite Japan's claim of peaceful purpose, the world thinks that Japan has developed rockets that can be easily diverted to ICBM's. The world makes its own judgment on Japanese abilities, with total disregard for Japan's domestic laws. The rest depends on whether Japan is going to change its mind."
On 22 June, Russia carried out a test launch of its latest model of the mobile-ICBM SS-25 on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nations are still making rocket technology available for weapons. The world takes for granted that its space development is used for military purposes. How long and steadfastedly can Japan persist on "the principle of peaceful utilization?"
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