Cold Peace: Choice of TMD; U.S. Shows Threat Scenario
Tokyo MAINICHI SHIMBUN
17 Mar 95
Morning Edition p 3
[FBIS Translated Text] A "working group for the introduction of the theater missile defense (TMD)," which was formed under the Japan-U.S. Secretary-level Security Council (SSC), held its second meeting last May in Washington D.C. At the meeting, the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMD) of the U.S. Department of Defense [DOD] submitted to the Japanese side a 40-page DOD internal document entitled "Japan's Choices Regarding TMD."
On the supposition of two types of missile attacks -- one from "the DPRK (North Korea)" and the other from "North Korea and China" -- four TMD proposals and charts are incorporated in the document.
The A proposal envisions North Korean missiles as the only threat, and the document explains a missile interception plan by combining "high-altitude interception by forward-deployed Maritime Self-Defense Forces [MSDF] and low altitude interception by ground troops." Its cost is about 790 million yen. This plan assigns two Aegis ships (and two reserve ships) to the Sea of Japan and deploys 24 Patriot missile ground units. Although this is the least- expensive proposal of the four, its weak point is that the forward-deployed missile defenses are too frail." The number of missile units are the same in the four proposals.
The B, C, and D proposals are made on the assumption that missile attacks will come from both North Korea and China. The B proposal is the most expensive one and cost about 2.75 trillion yen. It is designed to intercept missiles at high altitude in six areas and also at low altitude by deploying six Aegis ships (and six reserve ships) to the Sea of Japan and Okinawa region.
The C proposal is designed to use ground units deployed in the six areas to intercept missiles at high and low altitudes. It would cost about 1.48 trillion yen. Under this proposal, six ground antiaircraft artillery units equipped with theater high-altitude area defense (THAAD) interceptors will be deployed. Since the proposal calls for no forward deployment of Aegis ships in the Sea of Japan, the report notes that "although it causes only small irritation in neighboring countries, it lacks flexibility in terms of operation."
In the D proposal, the ground units would intercept low-altitude missiles, while the MSDF and ground units assigned to forward and flank areas would perform high-altitude interception. Its cost is about 1.52 trillion yen. This proposal calls for deployment of five ground-based THAAD units and two Aegis ships (and two reserve ships) in the Sea of Japan and Okinawa region. The documents says that this is "the most effective method."
It is said that the TMD is "the last military business opportunity for this century." Therefore, American industrial circles and the U.S. Government are very enthusiastic about the TMD.
When he met with a senior Defense Agency [DA] official, former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Ford, who came to Japan on 10 March, said with excitement: "Relations with the U.S. military industry and Congress will suffer if no progress is made in introducing the TMD." Walter Slocombe, assistant secretary of defense, strongly appealed to Taku Yamazaki, former DA secretary general who visited the United States in November of last year, for help, saying: "We want Japan to participate in the TMD."
The Japanese Government earmarked 20 million yen for TMD study and research. Publicly, DA Director General Tokuichiro Tamazawa stressed that no decision had been made on introduction of the TMD, saying: "The 20 million yen will be contributed to our effort to make policy decisions."
There was a stir between Japan and the United States over the DOD report on the TMD, disclosed on 6 March, saying: "Japan and the United States are jointly studying the possibility of developing (the TMD), as well as the choices aimed at acquiring capabilities for the future." Japan filed a protest against the United States, saying: "It gives the impression that Japan has already committed itself to the TMD."
Some DA officials hold a positive view, saying: "We must have something to counter the threats." But some others are saying that "We simply cannot spend several trillion yen on something that is not effective." However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs [MOFA] -- in a document entitled "The Japan-U.S. Security System" which was issued on 21 February for internal use only -- explained its willingness to introduce the TMD, saying: "It is an important task in terms of the smooth and effective application of the security system." Japan's choice regarding its participation in the TMD is still a delicate issue. Now that the strategic defense initiative (SDI), popularly called "star wars," has been brought to a standstill, the American military industries and the U.S. Government are devoting themselves to the pursuit of the TMD. How far is Japan going to commit itself under the Japan-U.S. security system?
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