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U.S. Report Forces Japan To Make Decision Over TMD System

Tokyo SANKEI SHIMBUN
9 Mar 95 Morning Edition p 2

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[FBIS Translated Text] The U.S. Department of Defense [DOD] has disclosed the contents of a defense report for fiscal 1995. This report on defense is in line with a report entitled "Security Strategy for East Asia and the Pacific," which the DOD had sent to the Congress. The defense report clearly spells out a policy designed to promote the U.S. alliance with this region by strengthening multilateral cooperation. This is one of the distinctive features of the report. Moreover, another point that arouses our interest is that the report says the United States gives top priority to the development, procurement, and deployment of the theater-missile defense (TMD) system, which is intended to serve as a defense against ballistic missile attacks, and strongly wants Japan to participate in the TMD project.

In addition to economic issues, there are various problems related to the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, including the atomic bomb exhibition and the Iwo Jima memorial service, between Japan and the United States. Such issues, whether large or small, often become sources of emotional discord. However, we are certain that nobody wants these issues to spread as far as to the area of security. That is because Japan's security without the United States is unthinkable for the time being. In order to preserve close security ties, which the countries have maintained so far, Japan has to study the possibility of providing the U.S. Forces in Japan with more assistance, such as acquisition and cross-servicing agreements (ACSA's) and stockpiling of the goods needed for cross-servicing. Should Japan treat the TMD system in the same context then? We are certain that the majority of people, if asked whether Japan needs the TMD system, will answer yes. It is said that North Korea already has nuclear warheads (bombs) and is hurriedly developing ballistic missiles referred to as Nodong and Taepodong. Knowing this, Japan cannot rest in peace unless it takes some measures to defend itself from the North Korean missile threat.

Nevertheless, there are too many difficult problems to fully accept the U.S. request, which calls for Japan's participation in the TMD project. The first problem is cost. The United States has already developed several types of defense weapons and estimated costs for three phases of the TMD system, with or without satellites. (The most expensive combination of weapons for the system would cost 16.3 billion dollars.) However, according to a Japanese study, actual costs will be more than double the highest estimate.

There is concern that the TMD concept, should it become extremely expensive, may squeeze the defense budget and be of limited effectiveness -- for example, protecting Japan from ballistic missiles but inadequate against cruise missile attacks. Moreover, it is not certain whether Japan will be able to gain technological benefits even if it takes part in the TMD development. The Japan- U.S. relationship is the most important bilateral relationship. However, the white paper on U.S. defense is forcing Japan to make a difficult decision as to how it will seek security within the framework of the bilateral relations.

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