DATE=3/18/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42888
TITLE=MISSILE DEFENSE/ U-S & ASIA
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: IN ADDITION TO THE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR THE UNITED
STATES THAT WAS APPROVED BY CONGRESS THIS WEEK, THE UNITED
STATES AND JAPAN ARE STUDYING THE POSSIBILITY OF DEPLOYING AN
EAST ASIAN REGIONAL ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM. THAT PROPOSAL, WHICH
U-S OFFICIALS SAY IT IS A LONG WAY FROM BECOMING A REALITY, HAS
BEEN CRITICIZED BY CHINA, NORTH KOREA AND RUSSIA. V-O-A'S
STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS ON WHAT MIGHT BE INVOLVED IN AN ASIAN
MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM.
TEXT: MANY U-S POLICYMAKERS AND POLITICIANS BELIEVE THE UNITED
STATES IS VULNERABLE TO MISSILE ATTACK. THEY SAY THAT EXISTING
DEFENSE SYSTEMS ARE NOT CAPABLE OF DESTROYING INCOMING MISSILES
BEFORE THEY HIT THEIR TARGETS. SO, AMERICAN DEFENSE PLANNERS
HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL ANTI-MISSILE PROGRAMS
THAT COULD DESTROY BALLISTIC OR LONG RANGE MISSILES AT HIGH
ALTITUDES, WELL BEFORE THEY REACH THEIR TARGETS.
A RESEARCHER AT THE RAND CORPORATION WHO STUDIES
COUNTER-PROLIFERATION AND FORCE IMPROVEMENT ISSUES, BRUCE
BENNETT, EXPLAINS THE PURPOSE OF TRYING TO DEVELOP WHAT IS CALLED
A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM.
// BENNETT ACT ONE //
MOST STATES THAT ARE POTENTIALLY CONTRARY TO U-S
INTERESTS ARE DEVELOPING THEATER BALLISTIC MISSILES WITH
WHICH THEY COULD DELIVER EITHER HIGH EXPLOSIVES OR
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION EITHER AGAINST U-S FORCES OR
THE POPULATIONS OF OUR ALLIES. SO A DEFENSIVE SYSTEM IS
INTENDED TO TRY TO COUNTER SUCH BALLISTIC MISSILE
CAPABILITIES.
// END ACT //
MR. BENNETT SAYS THE BIG ADVANTAGE OF A REGIONAL SYSTEM IS THAT
IT ALLOWS SEVERAL COUNTRIES TO SHARE THE HIGH DEVELOPMENTAL COSTS
INVOLVED. HE ESTIMATES A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR EAST
ASIA COULD COST AS MUCH AS 10 BILLION DOLLARS.
ANOTHER ANALYST, STEPHEN YATES, SAYS A REGIONAL SYSTEM CAN BE
MORE EFFECTIVE THAN AN ANTI-MISSILE EFFORT BY JUST ONE COUNTRY.
// YATES ACT ONE //
THE ADVANTAGE OF HAVING MULTIPLE PARTIES INVOLVED IN A
SYSTEM IS THAT YOU NEED TO HAVE MANY DIFFERENT POINTS
MONITORING THE SKIES IN ORDER TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION
OF AN INCOMING MISSILE. ... JUST THINK OF IT AS KIND OF
A MONITORING SYSTEM WHERE CIRCLES ARE GOING OUT FROM A
POINT, AND IF YOU HAVE TWO CIRCLES, THEY CAN PINPOINT
WHERE SOMETHING IS IN THE SKY. THE MORE POINTS YOU HAVE
SEARCHING FOR SOMETHING, THE MORE ACCURATE YOUR SYSTEM
CAN BE.
// END ACT //
MR. YATES, WHO IS WITH THE ASIAN STUDIES CENTER OF THE HERITAGE
FOUNDATION -- A WASHINGTON RESEARCH ORGANIZATION -- SAYS A
MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR EAST ASIA WOULD NOT BE DESIGNED TO
DEFEND AGAINST A PARTICULAR COUNTRY. HE SAYS IT WOULD BE USED
AGAINST INCOMING SCUD MISSILES OR OTHER ADVANCED MISSILES FROM
ANY COUNTRY.
// YATES ACT TWO //
I DON'T THINK THAT IT SPECIFICALLY TARGETS ANY ONE
COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH POLITICALLY IT'S UNDENIABLE THAT THE
HIGHEST PRIORITY THREAT RIGHT NOW FOR PEOPLE IN ASIA IS
NORTH KOREA, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ASK JAPAN, BECAUSE NORTH
KOREA LAUNCHED A MYSTERIOUS OBJECT THAT LOOKED LIKE A
THREE-STAGE ROCKET OVER ITS SOVEREIGN TERRITORY. AND SO
JAPAN LOOKS AT NORTH KOREA AS BEING THE NUMBER ONE
THREAT OF MISSILE ATTACK. OTHERS LOOK TO THE BUILDUP OF
MISSILES ON MAINLAND CHINA AND SAY THAT THEY NEED A
MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM TO PROTECT AGAINST CHINESE
MISSILE ATTACK; NAMELY, TAIWAN FEELS THIS WAY.
// END ACT //
MR. BENNETT, OF THE RAND RESEARCH ORGANIZATION, SAYS AN EAST ASIA
THEATER ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM WOULD INVOLVE AT LEAST TWO LAYERS OF
DEFENSE. THE FIRST WOULD OPERATE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE -- WITH
SHORTER-RANGE MISSILES (OPT) LIKE THE PATRIOT AND THE NAVY'S
AEGIS MISSILE-TRACKING SYSTEM (END OPT)-- AND WOULD COVER ABOUT
20 TO 100 KILOMETERS AROUND THE AREA BEING DEFENDED.
HE SAYS THE UPPER TIER PART OF THE PLAN WOULD OPERATE OUTSIDE THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH LONG-RANGE MISSILES (OPT) LIKE THE NAVY
THEATER-WIDE SYSTEM OR ANOTHER PROGRAM CALLED "THAAD" (END OPT)
THAT WOULD SERVE AS A HIGH ALTITUDE, OR UPPER TIER, DEFENSE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WOULD PROVIDE A BROADER AREA OF
COVERAGE.
ALTHOUGH DEFENSE PLANNERS IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN
CONDUCTING RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE FOR SEVERAL
YEARS, MOST TEST RESULTS WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL. NOW, ANALYSTS
SAY TEST RESULTS LOOK MORE PROMISING.
// OPT // (THIS WEEK / MARCH 15TH), THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT
REPORTED ITS FIRST SUCCESSFUL TEST OF A PATRIOT ADVANCED SEEKER
MISSILE (PAC-3) AT THE WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE IN NEW MEXICO.
THE TEST INVOLVED TRACKING AND CLOSING IN ON A TARGET IN FLIGHT.
// END OPT //
HOWEVER, MR. BENNETT SAYS THE TECHNOLOGY FOR THE HIGH-ALTITUDE
AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT EXIST.
// BENNETT ACT TWO //
WE STILL HAVE YET TO HAVE A SUCCESSFUL TEST OF AN UPPER
TIER SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR OR FIVE FAILURES OF
THE "THAAD," AND SO WE'RE STILL PROBABLY FOUR OR FIVE
YEARS AWAY FROM HAVING AN OPERATIONAL UPPER END SYSTEM
EVEN IF THE TESTS GO WELL.
// END ACT //
IN ADDITION TO THE OBSTACLES OF TECHNOLOGY AND COST, STEPHEN
YATES OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION SEES SOME POTENTIAL POLITICAL
CHALLENGES TO IMPLEMENTING THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE.
MR. YATES SAYS TO BE TRULY EFFECTIVE, A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM
HAS TO RELY ON SATELLITES FOR LOCATING MISSILES, CALCULATING
THEIR TRAJECTORIES AND COORDINATING INFORMATION AMONG ALLIES TO
KNOCK OUT THE TARGETS. HOWEVER, HE SAYS THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL
INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS AGAINST USING SPACE FOR MILITARY
PURPOSES.
IN ADDITION, MR. YATES SAYS IF MAJOR STATES LIKE CHINA ARE SO
OPPOSED TO THE REGIONAL SYSTEM, ITS NEIGHBORS MAY SHY AWAY FROM
PARTICIPATING IN IT. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/KL
18-Mar-99 11:51 AM EST (1651 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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