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300 SCUD Missiles in North Korea

Satoshi Morimoto, Senior Researcher, Nomura Sogo Kenkyujo

Iran Sells SCUD Missiles to Syria

The crisis concerning nuclear development in North Korea seems to have abated, at least for the time being. Part of the reason is that attention is now being focused on the details of the October 21st agreement reached between Washington and Pyongyang.

This, however, has done little to remove the threat to Japan's security, especially regarding the true problem--which is North Korean missile development. North Korea already has a total of 300 SCUD B missiles (range 320 to 340 kilometers, payload 1000kg) and SCUD C missiles (range 500 to 600 kilometers, payload 700 kg). North Korea has been selling SCUD missiles to Iran (100 of the SCUD B missiles between 1987 and 1988, and 150 of the SCUD C in 1991), and has also been selling SCUD C missiles to Syria since 1993.

The North Korean ballistic missile now in development is capable of hitting Japan. In addition, North Korea is also developing the Rodong 1 (range 1000 to1300 kilometers, payload 800 kg). In May of 1993 it conducted its first test firing in the Japan Sea. Rodong 1 will likely be brought into production fairly soon, and 100 or more are estimated to be produced over the next five years.

CIA Chief James Woolsey has testified that North Korea is presently developing even newer model ballistic missiles, which are called the Taipodong 1 and Taipodong 2. According to a congressional report issued on September 27, 1994, tests on both models have yet to be conducted. The range of Taipodong 1 is 1500 to 2000 kilometers, and the range of Tiapodong is 1500 to 3500 kilometers. Japan is within the range of both models.

Taipodong 1 is based on the Rodong 1, while Taipodong 2 is a new development, and either can be loaded with a SCUD missile. These new type missiles are expected to be completed within five years. They present more than just a threat to nations in the Asian region. If they are sold in the Middle East and Gulf nations they will present a threat there as well.

(11/25)

Satoshi Morimoto, Senior Researcher, Nomura Sogo Kenkyujo