DATE=5/5/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=U-S/ISRAEL NUKES
NUMBER=5-46271
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=STATE DEPARTMENT
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Arab nations led by Egypt are once again
putting pressure on Israel over its refusal to sign
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. And, at a
United Nations conference underway in New York, Arab
states are urging the United States to back a move
that would isolate Israel. Correspondent Nick Simeone
reports the issue is coming up at a particularly
delicate time in the Middle East peace process.
TEXT: Washington may be about to find itself caught
between its Middle East allies at a time when it is
trying to work out the final terms of an Israeli-
Palestinian peace agreement.
Israel is one of several nations that refuse to sign
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Arms control
analysts estimate that Israel may have up to 200
nuclear weapons. Its longstanding view is that its
own security is enhanced if its Arab neighbors are
kept guessing about its nuclear capabilities. But at
a non-proliferation conference in New York, Egypt has
been leading the Arab cause in pressing the United
States to support a move that would isolate Israel for
its stand.
The last thing Washington wants at this delicate
moment in the Arab-Israeli peace process is a showdown
with Israel over the nuclear issue. For years,
successive U-S administrations have angered Arab
nations by taking a hands-off [EDS: non-committal]
policy over Israel's undeclared nuclear potential,
believing that if the region can work toward peace,
the nuclear issue would be of less concern.
But Egypt's ambassador to the United Nations, Ahmed
Aboulgheit, thinks this position is no longer tenable.
/// ABOULGHEIT ACT ///
We have the support of the Arab group. We have
the support of the non-aligned countries. We
have the understanding of the Europeans and the
other permanent members. And I think the
Americans today are coming to recognize that
this is a situation that they have to face, and
being factual is not a matter that would be
detrimental to anybody.
/// END ACT ///
Israel's undeclared nuclear capability is such a
sensitive issue that the Clinton Administration
doesn't want to talk about it -- at least not on the
record. But privately, one official agreed with the
Egyptian view, saying it's going to be very hard down
the road to overlook Israel's nuclear potential if the
world wants to keep countries like Iraq under
sanctions for trying to go nuclear as well.
Experts on the Middle East, like Georgetown University
professor Anthony Cordesman, believe it's long past
time that Israel be made to account for its own
nuclear program.
/// CORDESMAN ACT ///
There's a well-established body of literature,
much of it by Israeli experts, on the Israeli
nuclear program. Pretending it doesn't exist
really doesn't help regional stability at this
point.
/// END ACT ///
Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons,
despite the mounting evidence that it does. There's a
good reason for that, beyond deterrence, says Luke
Warren, an analyst at the Washington-based Council for
a Livable World.
/// WARREN ACT ///
If Israel declares it has nuclear weapons, then
by U-S law, we automatically have to impose
military and economic sanctions on them. So to
a large degree, Israel is walking a line of not
confirming and not denying so that they don't
draw automatic U-S repercussions. It's like
Taiwan not declaring independence against China
even though technically they pretty much are.
/// END ACT ///
But by not addressing Israel's nuclear capabilities,
experts like Anthony Cordesman don't see how any real
progress can be made on non-proliferation issues in
the Middle East.
/// CORDESMAN ACT ///
At present, by not being able to talk about
Israel's nuclear program, you can't talk about
any aspect of arms control. The American
viewpoint should be frankly to block
proliferation regardless of what country is
involved.
/// END ACT ///
And that's precisely what U-S policy is. It's just
that U-S officials will not go as far as singling out
Israel in public, letting Arab allies do it instead.
(SIGNED)
NEB/NJS/JP
05-May-2000 13:27 PM EDT (05-May-2000 1727 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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