Subject: NAVAL BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT 31 JAN 91 Box ID: BX600012Document Number: 1Folder Title: 1ST FSSG BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT CNA 57-40255 Folder Seq #: 5Unit: 1ST FSSG Parent Organzation: 1 MEF N A V A L M E S S A G E D E P T 0 F N A V Y UNCLASSIFIED PRIORITY ZYUW RUCA0793 0311508 ASSESSED TO HAVE BULK FILLED CHEMICAL WARHEADS FOR THEIR SCUD P 31140OZ JAN 91 MISSILES, IT IS HOT KUM IF THEY POSSESS BOMBLET WARHEADS. IRAQ IS FM NAVSWC DAHLGREN VA//H31// BELIEVED TO HAVE CLUSTER BOMBS; IF FILLED WITH TR-1, THESE BCNBS CAN TO NAVAIRDEVCEN WARMINSTER PA//0624106244// PRODUCE DOSAGE FOOTPRINTS SIMILAR TO THE SCUD-B WITH SUBMUNITIONS. CINCPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI//02// 5. 11 WELL KNOWN THAT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CA rN GMT OVER LAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BW ATTACKS. THE CDOWAIRSYSCON WASHINGTON DCI/551/ N Ex!,sTiA ,T NAYMEDRSCHOEVCCM BETHESDA NDI/402// EXTREMELY LOW MIXING LAYER HEIGHT SERVES TO MINIMIZE VERTICAL COMNAVFACENGCON ALEXANDRIA VA//063A// DISPERSION OF THE AGENT AND EXTINCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES IN THE DIA WASHINGTON DC//DT-5C// CIA WASHINGTON DCIIOSWR-LSB// ABSENCE OF SUNLIGHT IS VIRTUALLY ZERO. WHEN THE MET CONDITIONS FAVORXISTS AND DOSAGES CMD SPT MCROAC QUANTICO VA//AW// SUFFICIENT TO INFECT 50 PERCENT OF EXPOSED PERSONNEL (ID50) CAN BE INFO CNO WASHINGTON DC//OP-03C2// ACHIEVED AT DOWNWIND DISTANCES OF 100 KM TO OVER 180 KM. IN CONTRAST, P 162136Z JAN 91 ZYB DAYTIME CONDITIONS WHICH ARE LESS FAVORABLE TO THE ATTACKER ARE FM NAVSWC DAHLGREN VA//H31// CHARACTERIZED BY STABILITY CATEGORY C WITH MIXING LAYERS IN EXCESS TO CNO WASHINGTON DCI/OP703/OPO6/OPO93/1 OF 1000 METERS. IN THIS SITUATION, ID50'S KAY ONLY BE ACHIEVED AT COMNAVSEASYSCON WASHINGTON DC/155X25/0511241050// MMIRD DISTANCES OF 4 KM TO 70 KM. OVER WATER, ATMOSPHERIC CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N541// CINCLAUTFLT NORFOLK VA//NgB// STABILITY CAN VARY FROM BETWEEN E AND B AT NIGHT TO BETWEEN D AND CHD SPT MCRDAC QUANTICO VA//AVr// C DURING THE DAY. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SLWARIZES DATA FOR BL14ED WASHINGTON DC//OZC// INDIVIDUAL RELEASES IN VARIOUS MET CONDITIONS CIHCPACFLT PEARL HARBOR Hl//3551/ MUNITION STAB CAT WIND SPEED (KM) L X W (KM) USCINCCENT RACDILL AFB FL//JJJ// SCUD-$ D-DAY OR MIGHT 7.8 95 X 5 INFO CNR ARLINGTON VA//OffT-233/1 BOMBLETS E-NIGHT O.B 195 x 5HINGTON DC//DA31// MISTRAL IN C-DAY 8.9 56 X 7 ZEN/COMNAVSPACECON DAHLGREN VA//N2// BOAT B-DAY OR NIGHT 6.8 166 x 10 NRL WASHINGTON DC/16090// E-RIGHT 5.2 124 X 10 NAVOCEANO BAY ST LOUIS NS//JJJ// MISTRAL C-DAY . 8.9 72 X 6 FLENMEANCEN MONTEREY CA//JJJ/1 STATIONARY D-DAY OR MIGHT 6.8 178 X 7 CTG ONE SIX EIGHT PT ZERO E-MIGHT 5.2 130 X 7 CCMSPAWARSYSCOt4 WASHINGTON DCI/JJJ// AIRCRAFT C-DAY 9.9 4 X 53 CONNAVINTCOM WASHINGTON DC//JJJ// 0 SPRAY D-DAY OR NIGHT 8.2 31 X 53 k: 0 -%" I E-RIGKR 8.7 190 X 54 ANUKUS //NO3400// 4t, HE LONG WMIND DISTANCES aM ABOVE ARE BASED ON iUiJ': iAiA@ BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR OPERATION A PERSONNEL BREATHING RATE OF ONLY 15 LITERS PER MINUTE. EVEN LARGER DESERT SHIE AREAS WDULD ACHIEVE ID50'S AT HIGHER BREATHING RATES. IT IS ALSOTHAT THE MISTRAL SPRAYER IS A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EFFICIENT REF/A/TEL/NAVSWC/16JAN91// DISSEMINATION SYSTEM THAN AN AIRCRAFT SPRAY TANK AND AGAIN, MUCH AMPN/REF A IS'TELCON BETWEEN NAVSWCIHORTON AND CNO/CAPT RINN/I GREATER DOWNWIND DISTANCES MAY BE ACHIEVABLE. THERE IS INSUFFICIENT rd4KS/I. (U) NAVOCEANO BAY ST LOUIS NS PLEASE PASS TO LCDR STEINER. INFORMATION TO ALLOW MODELING OF THE MISTRAL'S DRY DELIVERY 2. (U) SUBJECT FINDINGS DISCUSSED WITH OP03C. CAPABILITY. HOWEVER. DRY DISSEMINATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE 3. NAVSWC HAS BEEN CONDUCTING AN ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFICIENT THAN THE WET DISSEMINATION IN THE ABOVE TABLE. THE GREATEST HAZARD TO NAVAL FORCES IN THE PERSIAN GULF FROM COVERT AND OVERT LIMITATION ON DOWNWIND COVERAGE IS THE RAPID DISPERSION WHICH IS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS BY IRAQ. WHILE INFORMATION USED AS TYPICAL OF DAYTIME CONDITIONS. WHILE A CLOUD MAY EASILY TRAVEL INPUTS FOR THIS ASSESSMENT WAS OBTAINED FRCM A VARIETY OF SOURCES, DURING THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE NIGHT. AFTER DAWN THE MIXING HEIGHT THE RESULTS HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR VALIDATED BY ANY OTHER RISES, ALLOWING RAPID VERTICAL DIFFUSION AND DILUTION AND RESULTING CCMMAND. DETAILED INFORMATION FROM THIS ASSESSMENT WILL BE PROVIDED IN MINIMAL ADDITIONAL DOWNWIND TRAVEL. INDIVIDUAL CLOUDS OF AGENT TO AM INTERNATIONAL PANEL OF EXPERTS FROM THE US, UK AND CA OM MAY BE UP TO SEVERAL KILOMETERS WIDE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND 14-16 JANUARY 1991 FOR REVIEW. THE SELECTION OF AGENTS AND WHEN THEY REACH THE SHIP. MUNITIONS BELIEVED TO BE AVAILABLE TO IRAQ WAS MADE PRIMARILY BY 7. BASED ON THE SHIP LOCATIONS BEING OBTAINED FROM NTIC. METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR THE PERSIAN GULF WAS OBTAINED FROM JOTSII, THE STANDARD SCUD-B DOES NDT HAVE SUFFICIENT RANGE TO BE A THE NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND (CNOC), FLEET NL94ERIC OCEANOGRAPHIC CENTER CFMX), THE DEFENCE RESEARCH ESTABLISHMENT SUFFIELD (DRES) CANADA, AND THE CHEMICAL DEFENCE ESTABLISHMENT (CDE) PORTON DOWN UK. INFOFMATION ON LOCATION OF BLUE FORCE SHIPS WAS OBTAINED FRCM THE NAVAL SPACE COMMAND USING JOTSII. FUNDING FOR ALL PHASES OF THIS EFFORT FRO14 MODEL DEVELOPMENT TO DATA PRESENTATION IS BEING PROVIDED BY OUT UNDER PE 62233N CB DEFENSE. 4. HE OBJECTIVE OF THIS ASSESSMENT 15 TO MIDE AN AWARENESS OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE AREA COVERAGES AND DOWNWIND DISTANCES WHICH CAN BE ACHIEVED BY BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS. ALTHOUGH ALL MILITARY RESPIRATORS PROVIDE EXCELLENT PROTECTION AGAINST ANTHRAX. I-il,'ATM -@- Mfl -@ DISSE14INATION OF ANTHRAX SPORES IN WET FORM (TR-1) FROM THE MISTRAL -2 AGRICULTURAL SPRAYER 14OUNTED ON 94ALL BOATS OR TRUCKS, AIRCRAFT KOURTED SPRAY SYSTEMS AND A SCUD-B FILLED WITH BCMBLETS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO CONFIRMATION THAT ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE USED BY IRAQ FOR BW. ALSO, ALTHOUGH IRAQ IS 8. (U) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, CONTACT ROGER GIBBS OR PAUL KIRK AND ROGER ENGELS ON DSN 249-8621 OR COMMERCIAL (703) 663-8621.// CNO WASH DC ADV 43 DECL/OADR// ST (U,F) INFO 00(l) CNO GRID(L) 09(l) 098(l) 095(l) 08(i) 80(i) 01(i) 02( ) 07EGfl) 30(l) 35(i) 37(l) 39(l) 04(l) 40(l) 41( ) 4Z(I) 44(l) 05(l) 50(l) 51(l) 55(l) 06(i) 60( ) AA(l) 61(l) 54(l) 093(l) 932(l) 75(l) 07(l) 70( ) 71(l) 75(l) 73(l) US(l) 74(l) NRC(L) NCC(I) 92 Y(l) SC(l) UNCLASSIFIED MCN=91031/23568 TOR=91031/1557Z TAD-91031/1632Z CDSN-MAN896 PAGE I OF I S E eR E:F 162136Z JAN 91
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