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091896_sep96_decls1_0001.txt
Subject: NAVAL BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT  31 JAN 91           Box  ID: BX600012Document Number:          1Folder Title: 1ST FSSG BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT CNA 57-40255                                      Folder Seq #:          5Unit: 1ST FSSG    Parent Organzation: 1 MEF                                                                                  N A V A L M E S S A G E                                                                               D E P T 0 F N A               V Y               UNCLASSIFIED              PRIORITY                                   ZYUW RUCA0793 0311508                         ASSESSED TO HAVE BULK FILLED CHEMICAL WARHEADS FOR THEIR SCUD              P 31140OZ JAN 91                                                                         MISSILES, IT IS HOT KUM IF THEY POSSESS BOMBLET WARHEADS. IRAQ IS              FM NAVSWC DAHLGREN VA//H31//                                                             BELIEVED TO HAVE CLUSTER BOMBS; IF FILLED WITH TR-1, THESE BCNBS CAN              TO   NAVAIRDEVCEN WARMINSTER     PA//0624106244//                                        PRODUCE DOSAGE FOOTPRINTS SIMILAR TO THE SCUD-B WITH SUBMUNITIONS.                   CINCPACFLT PEARL HARBOR      HI//02//                                               5.                 11 WELL KNOWN THAT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH                                                                                                       CA               rN GMT OVER LAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BW ATTACKS. THE                   CDOWAIRSYSCON WASHINGTON DCI/551/                                                   N Ex!,sTiA       ,T                   NAYMEDRSCHOEVCCM BETHESDA NDI/402//                                                 EXTREMELY LOW MIXING LAYER HEIGHT SERVES TO MINIMIZE VERTICAL                   COMNAVFACENGCON ALEXANDRIA VA//063A//                                               DISPERSION OF    THE AGENT AND EXTINCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES IN THE                   DIA WASHINGTON DC//DT-5C//            CIA WASHINGTON DCIIOSWR-LSB//                 ABSENCE OF SUNLIGHT IS VIRTUALLY ZERO. WHEN THE MET CONDITIONS FAVORXISTS AND DOSAGES                   CMD SPT MCROAC QUANTICO VA//AW//                                                    SUFFICIENT TO INFECT 50 PERCENT OF EXPOSED PERSONNEL (ID50) CAN BE              INFO CNO WASHINGTON DC//OP-03C2//                                                        ACHIEVED AT DOWNWIND DISTANCES OF 100 KM TO OVER 180 KM. IN CONTRAST,              P 162136Z JAN 91 ZYB                                                                     DAYTIME CONDITIONS WHICH ARE LESS FAVORABLE TO THE ATTACKER ARE              FM NAVSWC DAHLGREN VA//H31//                                                             CHARACTERIZED BY STABILITY CATEGORY C WITH MIXING LAYERS IN EXCESS              TO   CNO WASHINGTON DCI/OP703/OPO6/OPO93/1                                               OF 1000 METERS. IN THIS SITUATION, ID50'S KAY ONLY BE ACHIEVED AT                   COMNAVSEASYSCON WASHINGTON DC/155X25/0511241050//                                   MMIRD DISTANCES OF 4 KM TO 70 KM. OVER WATER, ATMOSPHERIC                   CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N541//        CINCLAUTFLT NORFOLK VA//NgB//                 STABILITY CAN VARY FROM BETWEEN E AND B AT NIGHT TO BETWEEN D AND                   CHD SPT MCRDAC QUANTICO VA//AVr//                                                   C DURING THE DAY. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SLWARIZES DATA FOR                   BL14ED WASHINGTON DC//OZC//                                                         INDIVIDUAL RELEASES IN VARIOUS MET CONDITIONS                   CIHCPACFLT PEARL HARBOR Hl//3551/                                                   MUNITION         STAB CAT          WIND SPEED (KM)       L X W (KM)                   USCINCCENT RACDILL AFB FL//JJJ//                                                    SCUD-$           D-DAY OR MIGHT         7.8              95 X 5              INFO CNR ARLINGTON VA//OffT-233/1                                                        BOMBLETS         E-NIGHT                O.B              195 x 5HINGTON DC//DA31//                                                 MISTRAL IN       C-DAY             8.9             56 X 7                   ZEN/COMNAVSPACECON DAHLGREN VA//N2//                                                BOAT             B-DAY OR NIGHT    6.8             166 x 10                   NRL WASHINGTON DC/16090//                                                                            E-RIGHT           5.2             124 X 10                   NAVOCEANO BAY ST LOUIS NS//JJJ//                                                    MISTRAL          C-DAY .           8.9             72 X 6                   FLENMEANCEN MONTEREY CA//JJJ/1                                                      STATIONARY       D-DAY OR MIGHT    6.8             178 X 7                   CTG ONE SIX EIGHT PT ZERO                                                                            E-MIGHT           5.2             130 X 7                   CCMSPAWARSYSCOt4 WASHINGTON DCI/JJJ//                                               AIRCRAFT         C-DAY             9.9             4 X 53                   CONNAVINTCOM WASHINGTON DC//JJJ//              0                                    SPRAY            D-DAY OR NIGHT    8.2             31 X 53                                                                                          k: 0         -%" I            E-RIGKR           8.7             190 X 54                            ANUKUS //NO3400//                                                          4t,              HE LONG WMIND DISTANCES           aM ABOVE ARE BASED ON              iUiJ': iAiA@ BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR        OPERATION                   A PERSONNEL BREATHING RATE OF ONLY 15 LITERS PER MINUTE. EVEN LARGER              DESERT SHIE                                                                              AREAS WDULD ACHIEVE ID50'S AT HIGHER BREATHING RATES. IT IS ALSOTHAT THE MISTRAL SPRAYER IS A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EFFICIENT              REF/A/TEL/NAVSWC/16JAN91//                                                               DISSEMINATION SYSTEM THAN AN AIRCRAFT SPRAY TANK AND AGAIN, MUCH              AMPN/REF A IS'TELCON BETWEEN NAVSWCIHORTON AND CNO/CAPT RINN/I                           GREATER DOWNWIND DISTANCES MAY BE ACHIEVABLE. THERE IS INSUFFICIENT              rd4KS/I. (U) NAVOCEANO BAY ST LOUIS NS PLEASE PASS TO LCDR STEINER.                      INFORMATION TO ALLOW MODELING OF THE MISTRAL'S DRY DELIVERY              2. (U) SUBJECT FINDINGS DISCUSSED WITH OP03C.                                            CAPABILITY. HOWEVER. DRY DISSEMINATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE              3.                 NAVSWC HAS BEEN CONDUCTING AN ASSESSMENT OF THE                       EFFICIENT THAN THE WET DISSEMINATION IN THE ABOVE TABLE. THE GREATEST              HAZARD TO NAVAL FORCES IN THE PERSIAN GULF FROM COVERT AND OVERT                         LIMITATION ON DOWNWIND COVERAGE IS THE RAPID DISPERSION WHICH IS              CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS BY IRAQ. WHILE INFORMATION USED AS                       TYPICAL OF DAYTIME CONDITIONS. WHILE A CLOUD MAY EASILY TRAVEL              INPUTS FOR THIS ASSESSMENT WAS OBTAINED FRCM A VARIETY OF SOURCES,                       DURING THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE NIGHT. AFTER DAWN THE MIXING HEIGHT              THE RESULTS HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR VALIDATED BY ANY OTHER                             RISES, ALLOWING RAPID VERTICAL DIFFUSION AND DILUTION AND RESULTING              CCMMAND. DETAILED INFORMATION FROM THIS ASSESSMENT WILL BE PROVIDED                      IN MINIMAL ADDITIONAL DOWNWIND TRAVEL. INDIVIDUAL CLOUDS OF AGENT              TO AM INTERNATIONAL PANEL OF EXPERTS FROM THE US, UK AND CA OM                           MAY BE UP TO SEVERAL KILOMETERS WIDE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND              14-16 JANUARY 1991 FOR REVIEW. THE SELECTION OF AGENTS AND                               WHEN THEY REACH THE SHIP.         MUNITIONS BELIEVED TO BE AVAILABLE TO IRAQ WAS MADE PRIMARILY BY                         7.               BASED ON THE SHIP LOCATIONS BEING OBTAINED FROM              NTIC. METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR THE PERSIAN GULF WAS OBTAINED FROM                         JOTSII, THE STANDARD SCUD-B DOES NDT HAVE SUFFICIENT RANGE TO BE A              THE NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND (CNOC), FLEET NL94ERIC OCEANOGRAPHIC              CENTER CFMX), THE DEFENCE RESEARCH ESTABLISHMENT SUFFIELD (DRES)              CANADA, AND THE CHEMICAL DEFENCE ESTABLISHMENT (CDE) PORTON DOWN UK.              INFOFMATION ON LOCATION OF BLUE FORCE SHIPS WAS OBTAINED FRCM THE              NAVAL SPACE COMMAND USING JOTSII. FUNDING FOR ALL PHASES OF THIS              EFFORT FRO14 MODEL DEVELOPMENT TO DATA PRESENTATION IS BEING PROVIDED              BY OUT UNDER PE 62233N CB DEFENSE.              4.                 HE OBJECTIVE OF THIS ASSESSMENT 15 TO MIDE AN              AWARENESS OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE AREA COVERAGES AND DOWNWIND              DISTANCES WHICH CAN BE ACHIEVED BY BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS. ALTHOUGH ALL              MILITARY RESPIRATORS PROVIDE EXCELLENT PROTECTION AGAINST ANTHRAX.              I-il,'ATM -@- Mfl -@              DISSE14INATION OF ANTHRAX SPORES IN WET FORM (TR-1) FROM THE MISTRAL              -2 AGRICULTURAL SPRAYER 14OUNTED ON 94ALL BOATS OR TRUCKS, AIRCRAFT              KOURTED SPRAY SYSTEMS AND A SCUD-B FILLED WITH BCMBLETS. IT SHOULD              BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO CONFIRMATION THAT ANY OF THESE              SYSTEMS WILL  BE USED BY IRAQ FOR BW. ALSO, ALTHOUGH IRAQ IS                             8. (U) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, CONTACT ROGER GIBBS OR PAUL KIRK                                                                                                       AND ROGER ENGELS ON DSN 249-8621 OR COMMERCIAL (703) 663-8621.//              CNO WASH DC                                                         ADV     43           DECL/OADR// ST                             (U,F)              INFO     00(l) CNO GRID(L) 09(l) 098(l) 095(l) 08(i) 80(i)                       01(i) 02( ) 07EGfl) 30(l) 35(i) 37(l) 39(l) 04(l)                       40(l) 41( ) 4Z(I) 44(l) 05(l) 50(l) 51(l) 55(l)                       06(i) 60( ) AA(l) 61(l) 54(l) 093(l) 932(l) 75(l)                       07(l) 70( ) 71(l) 75(l) 73(l) US(l) 74(l) NRC(L)                       NCC(I) 92 Y(l) SC(l)                       UNCLASSIFIED       MCN=91031/23568               TOR=91031/1557Z                TAD-91031/1632Z               CDSN-MAN896                                                                                                                                                  PAGE I OF I                                                                                 S E eR E:F                                                       162136Z JAN 91

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