Page: 001
Total Pages: 1
SUBJECT: POINT PAPER ON BDA
POINT PAPER
ON
BDA -- DESERT STORM, DAY 6 -- OPERATOR'S LOOK
(As of 23 Jan 91/0500 Baghdad)
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Moderate to heavy physical damage in all
terget categories; assessable by BDA. Iraqi leadership's ability
and desire to continue the war more difficult to determine.
ASSESSMENT BY TAEGET CATEGORY:
- Airfileds: Moderate temporary degradation.
-- Air operations continue at a low level.
--- Some ops noted from dispersal/highway strips
-- Airfields capable of supporting limited operations.
--- Moderate damage to runways, taxiways, and
aircraft shelters; energetic runway repair
efforts continue.
--- Some C3 degradation.
-- Itaqi AF suffered little attrition so far;
lots of planes and pilots remain.
--- Still a serious threat; battle for the air not yet won.
- Strategic Air Defense: Degraded, not destroyed.
-- After initial severe disruption, air defense C3 system showing
some signs of recovery, improvement, and some intensification.
--- Several IOICs/SOCs heavily damaged; {b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
-- Iraqi SAM fire discipline improving;
AAA still firing in barrages but lethal.
-- New tactics being deployed
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
- Leadership: Control functions disrupted. Driven underground.
-- Peacetime leadership facilities heavily damaged;
normal government operations greatly disrupted.
-- Iraqi government's normal control severely degraded.
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
--- Bunkers bieng destroyed; only provide temporary safety.
- Communications: Seriously disrupted, not destroyed.
-- Heavy damage to Baghdad communications nets.
--- Baghdad area communications heavily degraded;
telecom out, TV sporadic/weak signals.
--- 4 of 6 major Baghdad comm centers destroyed;
Main Ministry of Defense Computer Center destroyed.
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
- SCUD System: Some success but still able to fire.
-- Limited damage to fixed launchers; 6 of 30 launchers inoperable.
--- Recent strikes [b.1. sec. 1.5.a.] destroyed several
fixed launch sites at Qasr Amij and Wadi Al Jabariyah.
-- Limited sucess in finding /destroying mobile launchers;
10 cliamed destroyed (no photo confirmation).
-- Some damge to storage/production facilities.
- Chem/NBC: Systematic destruction continuing.
-- Moderate to severe damage to NBC facilities.
-- Viability of Baghdad Nuclear Research Facility in question.
--- Isis nuclear reactor destroyed; Soviet reactor
building destroyed.
-- Heavy damage to chemical warfare production system.
-- Iraqi capability to produce CW agents has been significantly
reduced; 40% of Samarra production plants inoperable.
--- 40-50% decrease in nerve agent and mustard gas production.
--- 70% of CW munitions filling buildings destroyed.
-- 6 CW plants still operable.
-- Moderate to heavy damage to biological warfare production system.
--- Taji and Abu Ghurayb production plants show considerable
damage; probably inoperable.
--- Salman Pak plant remains although both refrigerated storage
bunkers believed destroyed (1 confirmed, 1 probable).
- Electricity: Severe disruption.
-- Baghdad electrical power remains shut down.
--- Bayji Thermal Powerplant (largest in country and major
contributor to Baghdad) shut down.
-- Shortages/outages throughout Iraq.
--- Blackouts expected to be frequest and long-term over
next several weeks.
- Oil: Degraded production/distribution capability.
-- Based on limited BDA, 2 of 3 major refineries are not operating
(including Baghdad facility).
--- Over 50% of Iraqi refining capacity affected.
- Military Support & Production: Destruction continuing.
-- Heavy damage to some storage and production facilities;
Latifiy and Iskanariyah Arms Plant.
- Naval:
-- No information yet.
- Republican Guards: Remain in place.
-- Under heavy air attack; C3 and logistics degraded in
some units especially near FLOT.
-- All units still considered combat effective although
light losses have been sustained.
- Railroads/Bridges: Railroads apparently not moving, bridges still standing.
-- No systemic damage to RR and bridge system.
--- Misses on Al Basrah bridge over canal
--- No BDA on F-117 strikes.
-- 4 tracks severed at Az Zubayr RR Station/Yard
--- Yard utilization assessed to be severely restricted for a limited time.
SUMMARY: Desert Storm continues well; caution must still be exercised.
Much remains to be done: Iraqi Air Force and SCUDs still a serious threat;
too early to shift effort to deployed Iraqi groud forces.
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